One of the final three spots in Euro 2024 is on the line as Wales and Poland clash in a massive qualifying playoff final in Cardiff on Tuesday.
The road to Euro qualification ends here for both sides, and only one can prevail while the other will be eliminated from contention at the final hurdle. Both teams aced their warmup tests against lesser foes in the semifinals as Wales smacked Finland 4-1 while Poland hammered Estonia by a 5-1 score.
Having finished just shy of a qualifying spot in the group stage, these two teams were left to snatch one of the final places via their finish in League A of the UEFA Nations League.
While qualifying was an unsuccessful venture, both teams are in good overall form, both having avoided defeat in at least six months. Wales have secured four wins and three draws since a 2-0 loss in Turkey last summer, while Poland have gone six unbeaten since they last suffered a disappointing defeat in Albania by the same score.
USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Wales vs Poland and bet Euro 2024 qualifiers
Wales vs Poland prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Draw (+200)
- Score prediction: Wales 0-0 Poland
By every single metric this match boasts razor-thin margins and is far too close to call. They are adjacent to one another on the FIFA ladder, with with 29th-ranked Wales holding the slightest of edges over 30th-ranked Poland. Even on the moneyline odds, Wales hold just the tiniest advantage as slight home favourites, but it's clearly anyone's game.
Both sides are masters at pinching goals against the run of play — evident by Poland's 1-0 victory over Germany in a friendly last summer where Jakob Kiwior's 36th-minute header was enough for a win despite being out-shot 26-2 by the coming Euro hosts. Wales did the same in October against Croatia, when they held just 28 percent possession but equalled the World Cup semifinalist on shots and won on a Harry Wilson brace.
Yet in a clash of nations which play a similar negative style, fans could be in for a snoozer as neither side wishes to risk opening itself up at the back to generate chances on the front end. With a winner required from this match, extra-time and penalties would be necessary should it end in a draw after 90 minutes of regulation play.
| DraftKings (USA) |
|
| Wales win | +165 |
| Draw | +200 |
| Poland win | +200 |
| Both teams to score Y/N |
+110 / -135 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
+165 / -205 |
| Wales to qualify |
-115 |
| Poland to qualify |
-105 |
Wales vs Poland match facts
- Date: Tuesday, Mar. 26, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 7:45 p.m. local (3:45 p.m. ET / 12:45 p.m. PT)
- Location: Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff, Wales)
- Referee: Daniele Orsato (ITA), VAR: Massimiliano Irrati (ITA)
- Last meeting: Wales 0-1 Poland (Sep. 25, 2022 | UEFA Nations League)
Wales vs Poland best bet
- Pick: Under 2.0 total goals
- Odds: -110 (DraftKings)
Oh boy here we go, a match between two sides that both are not only comfortable, but might even prefer, playing without the ball.
Too often matches between countries that enjoy sitting deep and counter-attacking end with both looking awkward in possession. It will be interesting to see if anyone can look positive creating chances via the bulidup, but they both will surely feel that the risk isn't exactly worth the reward in terms of advancing forward.
To cap it off, the game's only true attacking star, Robert Lewandowski, has regressed significantly this year at both the club and international level. The betting market has clearly accounted for this anticipated stylistic cancellation, but even with the odds swung wildly in favour of a low-scoring match, it's still worth the pick, especially as part of a larger parlay.
Wales vs Poland prop bet
- Pick: Correct 1H score — 1-0 Wales
- Odds: +275 (DraftKings)
If you're hell-bent on backing goals of any kind in this match, the first half appears rife for Wales to poach an early lead and sit back to defend it the rest of the way.
Wales have employed this strategy in most of their big games in recent months. They smashed Finland for a pair of first-half goals, only conceding a brilliantly-struck chance by Teemu Pukki in the final minute before the break. Harry Wilson found Neco Williams in the seventh minute of their 1-1 draw with Turkey back in November, holding out until the 70th minute when they conceded the equaliser from the penalty spot.
Poland, meanwhile, only got one goal against Estonia before halftime despite going a man up in the 27th minute, while just two of Robert Lewandowski's eight shots (and 0.13 of his 0.71 xG) came before Estonia's red card. Just one of Lewandowski's last six international goals have come before the break, as he continues to be slowly strangled by the inevitable grasp of time.
Wales vs Poland live stream, TV channel
| TV channel | Streaming | |
| USA | FS1 | Fubo USA, Fox Sports GO, ViX |
| Canada | — | DAZN |
| UK | Viaplay Sports 2, S4C | Viaplay UK |
FOX Sports own the broadcast rights to Euro 2024 in the United States, and therefore have the qualifiers as well. This match will be aired on FS1 in the US, which can be streamed on Fubo, who are offering a free trial for new users. In Canada, this match will be streamed by DAZN.
The match will be broadcast by S4C in Wales. It will be televised on Viaplay Sports 2 in the rest of the United Kingdom, with streaming on Viaplay Sports' dedicated platform.