Real Madrid vs Barcelona prediction, odds, picks for last El Clasico of 2023/24 La Liga season

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Vinicius Jr of Real Madrid and Robert Lewandowski of Barcelona split
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As Xavi nears his eventual Barcelona exit, the Catalan giants head to Madrid for the final El Clasico of the season hoping to erase a growing feeling of inferiority as they take on Real Madrid in league play on Sunday.

Real Madrid hold an eight-point lead atop the La Liga standings, and with seven matches remaining that lead feels all but insurmountable. Second-place Barcelona could sew some seeds of doubt with a victory here, but even cutting it to five would leave them with plenty of work to do and few opportunities to pounce.

Additionally, the midweek European fixtures will leave Barca with something to prove in this game. Real Madrid vanquished Premier League leaders Man City in the Champions League quarterfinals, advancing to the competition's final four, while Barcelona collapsed in epic fashion at home against PSG to crash out of Europe.

Thus, defeat here would leave Barcelona second-best to their hated Clasico rivals in just about every category, and only a result here would stem the growing anxiety that Los Blancos are enjoying a period of dominance amidst this decades-long conflict.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Real Madrid vs Barcelona and bet La Liga matches

Real Madrid vs Barcelona prediction, odds for El Clasico

  • Moneyline lean: Draw (+280)
  • Score prediction: Real Madrid 1-1 Barcelona

Real Madrid worked tirelessly to see off Man City at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday, absorbing waves and waves of relentless pressure and emerging with the scoreline intact — barely. That should leave Los Blancos quite well prepared to face a similar opponent in Barcelona who create significant attacking moments but largely fail to finish them.

Both sides will be exhausted coming into this game — Real Madrid defended for incredibly long stretches, hanging on for dear life across much of their midweek game, while Barcelona were forced to play an hour down a man against PSG after the dismissal of Ronald Araujo.

While there is plenty of intrinsic motivation when these two teams match up, there will be an unshakable feeling pervasive throughout this fixture that given the position of both sides in the standings, conceding defeat would be far more damaging to their ultimate finishing position than what could potentially be gained by victory. In the end, a draw helps both sides more than what could be risked by going for a win.

 
  BetMGM
(USA)
Real Madrid win -120
Draw +290
Barcelona win +300
Both teams
to score
Y: -210
N: +145
Over / Under
3.5 goals
O: +115
U: -165
Real Madrid
-0.5 goals
-135
Barcelona
+0.5 goals
-105

Real Madrid vs Barcelona match facts for El Clasico

  • Date: Sunday, April 21, 2024
  • Kickoff time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
  • Location: Santiago Bernabeu (Madrid, Spain)
  • Referee: Cesar Soto Grado, VAR: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez
  • Last meeting: Real Madrid 4-1 Barcelona (Jan. 14, 2024 | Supercopa de Espana)

Real Madrid vs Barcelona best bet

  • Pick: Barcelona double chance
  • Odds: -105 (BetMGM)

This exact scenario played out just two years ago. In March of 2022, Barcelona managed to secure an enormous 4-0 victory at the Bernabeu with very little else to play for in their season, while Real Madrid knew they had bigger fish to fry.

Coming off an emotional extra-time victory over Chelsea in the Champions League quarterfinals, Real Madrid came into their second league Clasico of the year with a double-digit lead at the top of the La Liga table knowing they could afford to focus elsewhere. Meanwhile, Barcelona were in the early stages of the Europa League knockout stages and felt as if this league match presented an opportunity to save face amidst a trying season, even if there was very little competitively on the line.

These narratives matter in the larger context of the league, and it's why backing a Barcelona result in Madrid is a smart play, especially considering the form of Barcelona forwards Lamine Yamal and Raphinha, while their counterparts could be missing key players Vinicius Jr and Dani Carvajal due to injury.

Real Madrid vs Barcelona prop bet

  • Pick: Rodrygo anytime goal scorer
  • Odds: +200 (BetMGM)
  • Pick: Raphinha anytime goal scorer
  • Odds: +290 (BetMGM)

Both these clubs have become extremely one-dimensional in front of goal as the season goes on, and in this match, it's likely that much of the attacking output will come from one source on both ends.

For Barcelona, Raphinha is one of the few forwards peaking as the season rounds to a close. With Robert Lewandowski looking absolutely cooked, his Brazilian teammate has shouldered the attacking load, having scored four goals in his last four games across all competitions, including three in the two Champions League legs. It's payoff for what has been a bright last few months, where he has at times carried this Barcelona team to results even without finding the back of the net.

On the flip side, fellow Brazilian forward Rodrygo has become a key figure for Real Madrid, with five goals over the last five matches. While Vinicius Jr enjoyed a bright March, he has been sidelined for various reasons and could miss out in this match once again with a muscle problem. With Vinicius on the sideline, Rodrygo will become the main target up front, and he doesn't need much volume to pay off, scoring a brace on just two shots last time out in league play against Athletic Club.

Real Madrid vs Barcelona live stream, TV channel

  TV channel Streaming
USA ESPN Deportes Fubo USA, ESPN+, WatchESPN
Canada TSN3, TSN4 Fubo Canada, TSN+
UK Premier Sports 1 LaLigaTV, Premier Sports Player

In the United States, this match will be televised in Spanish on ESPN Deportes, which is available to stream on Fubo, who is offering a free trial for new users. Both English and Spanish-language broadcasts can be found streaming on ESPN+, where every game of the 2023/24 La Liga season is available to watch live.

In Canada, the match will be televised on TSN3 and TSN4, which are available to stream on Fubo Canada. Meanwhile, in the UK, the match will be televised on Premier Sports 1, formerly known as Viaplay, with streaming on LaLigaTV and Premier Sports Player.

Author(s)
Kyle Bonn Photo

Kyle Bonn is a soccer content producer for The Sporting News.