The 2022/23 Premier League relegation battle is shaping up to be one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking in league history.
With a whopping nine clubs within striking distance of the relegation zone, a poor run of form could doom any one of those teams and send them down to the second-tier Championship next season.
The race features some major clubs with large fanbases and notable history in the English top-flight, with Leeds United, Everton, West Ham and Leicester City all in the mix. Two of the promoted sides are also battling for survival, including Nottingham Forest, who spent heavily during both transfer windows.
The Sporting News gives you an overview of the relegation fight as it stands, how many points have been required for survival during the division's modern history, and how this season's scrap compares to others from the Premier League's past.
MORE: Updated Premier League table, including an overview of every race
Premier League relegation 2023
There are nine teams within seven points in the bottom half of the table, all having nine matches remaining this season, except for West Ham (10 matches left).
West Ham moved out of the bottom three with a big home win against last-place Southampton, only to suffer a heavy 5-1 home loss to Newcastle in midweek which sent the alarm bells ringing among the fans.
Leeds United jumped from 18th to 13th with their recent win over fellow relegation battlers Nottingham Forest. And Leeds can continue to rise up the standings when on Sunday they host Crystal Palace, who are one point above them in the table.
| Pos | Team | Points | Matches Played | Goals Scored | Goal Difference | Next Match |
| 12. | Crystal Palace | 30 | 29 | 24 | -15 | @ LEE, April 9 |
| 13. | Leeds United | 29 | 29 | 38 | -11 | vs. CRY, April 9 |
| 14. | Wolves | 28 | 29 | 23 | -19 | vs. CHE, April 8 |
| 15. | West Ham | 27 | 28 | 26 | -13 | @ FUL, April 8 |
| 16. | Everton | 27 | 29 | 23 | -18 | @ MUN, April 8 |
| 17. | Nott'm Forest | 27 | 29 | 24 | -28 | @ AVL, April 8 |
| 18. | Bournemouth | 27 | 29 | 27 | -30 | @ LEI, April 8 |
| 19. | Leicester City | 25 | 29 | 40 | -11 | vs. BOU, April 8 |
| 20. | Southampton | 23 | 29 | 23 | -24 | vs. MCI, April 8 |
The bottom three teams on May 28, 2023 will be relegated to the second-tier Championship.
How many points to avoid relegation in 2023?
The 40-point bar to secure safety has reached mythical status in the football lexicon, largely because it's a nice round number that's easy to remember. But there's also history behind that figure.
Indeed, only three times in Premier League history has 40 points not been enough to stay up, and it last happened in 2003 when West Ham went down despite a 42-point haul. The other two occasions involved Sunderland in 1996/97 (40 points) and Bolton in 1997/98 (40 points).
However, at the end of most seasons the bar to stay up in the English top flight has been much lower than 40 points.
Since the Premier League expanded to 20 teams in 1995/96, the average points total of the 18th-placed team has been 35.2, meaning 36 points has often been enough to secure safety. In fact since 2000, 37 points have been enough to retain Premier League status on all but four occasions.
This season, 37 points is right around where the bar is likely to be, given how close the battle is and how many teams are involved. According to FiveThirtyEight's analytical projections, the 18th-place finisher (at the moment projected to be Everton) will finish with 36 points, while the final safe club in 17th (currently projected to be Bournemouth) will also end on 36 points.
MORE: Premier League top goalscorers for 2022/23 season
Closest Premier League relegation battles
This year has the potential to be one of the closest relegation battles in Premier League history. With two months left in the season, the nine bottom clubs were all within four points of each other, and all nine are still close enough to the danger zone to potentially fall through the trap door.
So how does that compare to other relegation battles in the history of the Premier League?
In the 2013/14 season, the bottom eight clubs all sat within 10 points of each other. West Ham, in 13th place, finished with 40 points, while bottom side Cardiff City had 30 points. That season it was Cardiff, Fulham, and Norwich City who went down to the Championship.
On only three occasions since 2010 has the 17th-placed club finished one point above the drop:
- 2010/11: Wolves one point above 18th place (Birmingham City)
- 2011/12: QPR one point above 18th place (Bolton)
- 2019/20: Aston Villa one point above 18th & 19th place (Bournemouth & Watford)
The last time a club avoided relegation via goal differential was Fulham in 2007/08, a season known in club lore as "The Great Escape" after they won four of their last five matches. On the final day, Reading pummeled hapless Derby County 4-0 to improve their goal differential to -25, but Fulham managed to beat Portsmouth 1-0 courtesy of a 76th-minute Danny Murphy goal (watch below) to remain afloat thanks to their -22 goal differential, which was just three goals better than Reading's.
The season before (2006/07), Wigan Athletic survived in more dramatic fashion, beating Sheffield United 2-1 on the final day to condemn the Blades to the drop by a single goal differential (-22 vs. -23). That's the last time the Premier League has seen two clubs battle on the final day in a winner-take-all relegation match.
That 2006/07 relegation battle remains the tightest in league history. Not only did Wigan and Sheffield United come within a single goal of each other (on goal differential), but four other clubs finished within five points of the drop.
West Ham fans remember this 2006/07 season fondly, as they won four games in a row to finish three points from relegation — a stunning close to the season that ended with the most dramatic result of them all: a 1-0 victory over champions Manchester United with a goal by Carlos Tevez.