Croatia vs Brazil prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for World Cup 2022 quarterfinal

Brazil will look to shake their recent World Cup quarterfinal slump when they face Croatia at the 2022 tournament in Qatar.

LIVE: Follow Brazil vs. Croatia updates from the World Cup

The Selecao have lost three of their last four World Cup quarterfinal matches, including in 2018 when they fell to Belgium, tasting early elimination.

Croatia, the 2018 World Cup runners-up, have been poor so far this tournament overall, but have ground out results, with just one win in 90 minutes compared to three draws through their four matches. They qualified for the quarterfinal by beating Japan on penalties.

Still, since the start of the 2018 tournament, Luka Modric and Co. have proven a tough nut to crack, with just one loss through their last 11 World Cup matches, coming in the 2018 final vs France.

After pummeling South Korea in the Round of 16, Neymar will fancy his chances in this match, having returned to the field in that game after missing time with an ankle injury. He faces his old El Clasico rival Modric, as the two are familiar opponents from Neymar's time with Barcelona.

BET LIVE: Follow along with a betting-focused live blog, with in-game picks, tips, and stats

Croatia vs Brazil betting odds

Brazil are heavily fancied by the bookmakers here, and the sub-par performances by Croatia in this tournament so far are reflected in their odds. The impressive win over South Korea, meanwhile, put to bed any doubts of Brazil's ceiling in Qatar.

The over has a slight advantage in this match thanks to the form of Brazil's attacking trio, highlighted by the return of Neymar from injury. Meanwhile, oddsmakers don't think Croatia can find a way through the Brazil backline, which has conceded just two goals all tournament, one of those coming in the group-stage finale against Cameroon with their second-choice lineup deployed.

Odds via BetMGM (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), SkyBet (UK), and Ladbrokes (Australia).

Note: Odds above for 90 minutes of regulation except "to advance."

Croatia vs Brazil: 3 things to know

Croatia vs Brazil team news

The biggest issue for Croatia is a muscle injury to full-back Josip Stanisic, who missed the Round of 16 win over Japan. Josip Juranovic filled in and went the distance, playing extremely well. His full-back counterpart, Borna Sosa, also missed that game due to illness, with Borna Barisic stepping in, and it's thought Sosa could return.

Brazil have a number of injuries to worry about. Gabriel Jesus and Alex Telles are out of the tournament after suffering injuries in the final group-stage game against Cameroon, while Alex Sandro is hoping to shake off his hip injury after missing the Round of 16 win over South Korea, with Eder Militao having filled in at right-back. Danilo is fit, having started that first knockout match, as is Neymar, who played 80 minutes after recovering from an ankle injury.

MORE: Full injury tracker for all 32 teams at the 2022 FIFA World Cup

Croatia vs Brazil key stats

• These two teams have met twice before at the World Cup, with Brazil winning both times, most recently in 2014 when a Neymar brace secured a come-from-behind 3-1 victory to make good after an early Marcelo own goal.
• Croatia have avoided defeat to a South American nation at the World Cup once in history, coming in the 3-0 victory over Argentina in the 2018 group stage. They had lost the previous four matches against CONMEBOL opposition.
• Brazil have lost three of their previous four World Cup quarterfinal matches, with the only victory coming against Colombia in 2014, while tasting defeat at this stage in 2018, 2010, and 2006. Prior to that stretch, Brazil were 7W-1L-2D in the quarterfinals all time.

Croatia vs Brazil match facts

• Date: Friday, December 9
• Kickoff Time: 10:00 am ET / 3:00 pm GMT / 2:00 am AEDT (Sat, Dec. 10)
• Location: Education City Stadium
• Official: Michael Oliver (England)

Croatia vs Brazil prediction

• Moneyline lean: Brazil (-250)
• Against the spread lean: Brazil -1.5 (+105)
• Score prediction: Brazil 2-0 Croatia

Croatia have shown nothing in this World Cup to indicate they can compete with Brazil at this stage of the tournament. Flat out, end of story.

Three draws to just one victory have proven Croatia are adept at scraping by against inferior opponents, but aside from the spectacular tournament by goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic and Josko Gvardiol, this squad has not exactly impressed. Their pair of scoreless group-stage draws proved they don't have enough in the attack to compete, and unless they manage to keep Brazil off the scoresheet, they will have little up front to match the goals they concede.

MORE: Full rundown of odds, props, handicaps, and more for Croatia vs. Brazil

Croatia vs Brazil: best bet

• Pick: Brazil -1.5 handicap
• Odds: +100 (BetMGM)

Brazil clobbered South Korea in the Round of 16 as Neymar returned to join white-hot attackers Richarlison and Raphinha. The attacking trio is in sensational form, feeding each other for chances and finishing them off with ruthless intent.

Croatia are excellent defensively, but against this tireless Brazil attack, will eventually cave. This should be a multiple-goal victory for the Selecao, and anything less will be cause for concern moving forward into the semifinals against teams of much higher talent.

Croatia vs Brazil prop bet

• Pick: Brazil and under 3.5 total goals
• Odds: +100 (BetMGM)

The over is a slight favorite in this game thanks to the threat of Brazil's attacking trio, but Croatia are better defensively than South Korea. While taking the under 2.5 goals is a fine choice, you can give yourself more room by bumping the total to 3.5 goals and adding a selection of Brazil to score.

In my mind, Brazil winning this match is a far greater certainty than the under hitting at 2.5 goals, so grabbing the extra room with little extra risk is a significant boost to your pick, without sacrificing any odds.

Croatia vs Brazil flier bet

• Pick: Neymar anytime goalscorer & Raphinha anytime assist
• Odds: +405 (BetMGM)

Quite frankly, it's insane that Raphinha doesn't have a goal or assist in this tournament yet. He's been sensational on the right flank, opposite Neymar, with eight chances created (tied-1st for Brazil) and 0.90 expected assists (2nd for Brazil, weirdly to Marquinhos with 1.11 xA), plus 1.21 xG (3rd for Brazil behind Richarlison & Neymar).

He did everything but assist a goal vs South Korea, playing a more influential role with Neymar working his way back from injury. Still, he's due, and with Neymar back to his world-class self and as penalty taker, this is a great dual bet.

Croatia vs Brazil live stream, TV channel

MORE: Watch every World Cup match live with fuboTV (U.S.-only free trial)

This quarterfinal match between Croatia and Brazil will be played at the Education City Stadium. Here's how you can watch all the action in some of the major global territories.