Croatia vs Brazil betting: Live picks, odds, stats during World Cup quarterfinal 2022 as Croatia down favorites on penalties

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Kyle Bonn
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Croatia vs Brazil in World Cup quarterfinal
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Brazil came into the 2022 World Cup as the betting favorites, but Croatia have slayed another beast on Luka Modric's watch.

The 2018 finalists looked sluggish coming into this match, but they put on a masterful performance against Neymar and Brazil. With the game scoreless in regulation, it appeared that the journey was over for Croatia, as Neymar scored in added time of the first extra-time half, but Bruno Petkovic's 117th-minute equalizer sent the match to penalties.

There, Dominik Livakovic, the hero of the penalty shootout against Japan, came up big again, saving Rodrygo's first effort to put Croatia ahead. The Croatian takers took it from there, as Nikola Vlasic, Lovro Majer, Luka Modric, and Mislav Orsic all struck. Marquinhos hit the post with Brazil's fourth effort, sending the favorites home.

Here's our live betting journey as we went through the match as it happened, making live picks and flushing out how the match would progress.

The updated boxscore for the Croatia vs Brazil match is followed by in-game tips, along with observations and analysis as the match progressed.

MORE: Recap of Croatia vs Brazil with highlights and commentary as it happened

Croatia vs Brazil live score

  1H 2H ET Final
Croatia 0 0 1 1 (4 pen)
Brazil 0 0 1 1 (2 pen)

Goals:
BRA — Neymar (105+1 mins)
CRO — Bruno Petkovic (117 mins)

Current lineups:

Croatia (4-3-3, right to left): 1. Livakovic (GK) — 22. Juranovic, 6. Lovren, 20. Gvardiol, 19. Sosa (Budimir, 110') — 10. Modric, 11. Brozovic (Orsic, 114'), 8. Kovacic — 15. Pasalic (Vlasic 72'), 9. Kramaric (Petkovic 72'), 4. Perisic.

Brazil (4-2-3-1, right to left): 1. Alisson (GK) — 14. Militao, 4. Marquinhos, 3. Silva, 2. Danilo — 5. Casemiro, 7. Paqueta — 11. Raphinha (Antony, 56'), 10. Neymar, 20. Vinicius Jr (Rodrygo, 64') — 9. Richarlison (Pedro, 84').

Croatia vs Brazil live betting tips, picks

Updated in-game betting tips below based on the current score and minute of the match.

Min LIVE PICK Odds ✔️ or ❌ Units +/-
12th 1H Under 0.5 goals +145 ✔️ 1.45
21st Vinicius Jr 2+ SoT 1H +240 ❌ -1
HT Ivan Perisic 1+ SoT +270 ❌ -1
HT Brazil over 4.5 corners +168 ✔️ 1.68
57th Brazil 7+ SoT +120 ✔️ 1.20
73rd Brazil to win 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 +165 ❌ -1
73rd Either team win on penalties +220 ✔️ 2.20
93rd Extra-time correct score 0-0 -110 ❌ -1
98th Brazil to win on penalties +180 ❌ -1
TOTAL 9 selections — 4-for-9 +1.53

Croatia vs Brazil updates, betting analysis

CROATIA 1-1 BRAZIL — Croatia advance on penalties (4-2)

WHAT A MATCH! After bossing the entire game, especially in midfield, it seemed Croatia would be going out after Neymar's extra-time goal, but a 117th minute equalizer from Bruno Petkovic sent it to penalties and then goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic was the hero again. An incredible story. We had fun, thanks for joining us!

Remember, IT'S ALL ABOUT VALUE! We won only four of our nine live bets, but come out with a profit anyways.

Croatia vs. Brazil: Penalty shootout

4th pen: MARQUINHOS OFF THE POST! BRAZIL ARE OUT!

3rd pen: The one save by Livakovic on Rodrygo remains the only miss so far. Livakovic guessed correctly on Casemiro too but his penalty was unsaveable, while Pedro got him with the stutter step.

1st pen: LIVAKOVIC SAVES AGAIN! It's a poor penalty from Rodrygo, and the Croatian goalkeeper continues to have a sensational tournament. What a moment.

Here we go! A bet on a penalty shootout cashes in such an unexpected manner! We have backed Brazil here, but we're profitable either way through this match. Livakovic was immense against Japan, but there's no way he can save more penalties here, can he?

Croatia vs. Brazil: Extra-time

120+2 min: Wow, Livakovic has been immense. He just kept Casemiro out from a late winner, before Josko Gvardiol makes a diving headed clearance on the ground. This game has been insane at the end!

117th min: GOAL! CROATIA! It's an equalizer, and penalties are still on! Bruno Petkovic gets on the end of a cross from Ivan Perisic down the left, which was coming. Took a huge deflection on the way through. What a moment!

HIGHLIGHT: Watch in the USA | Watch in Canada

Bruno Petkovic of Croatia vs Brazil celebrate World Cup
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We should have taken the goals prop, but it just didn't have enough value for how little time was left. Should have with cards too, because of course Petkovic takes his shirt off celebrating! Incredible. What a sport! No regrets, trust the process, the penalty selections are still in play now!

113th min: There are two things we're thinking about doing here as the game winds down: cards and goals. The game has exploded to life now as Croatia are desperate to get an equalizer, and it's turned into a track meet and a foul fest. Over 1.5 extra-time goals is enticing at +165, but it's just not enough value to make a play here for us. Over 0.5 extra-time yellow cards has the same feel at +110, just not quite enough value there.

109th min: Croatia are doing well to push forward, and there could be something still in this. Ivan Perisic has a great cross but there's nobody there to meet it. Luka Modric wins a corner, and Croatia make a change before it, with left-back Borna Sosa off for attacker Ante Budimir.

105+1 min: GOAL! BRAZIL! Well! Neymar! Livakovic has a howler and lets Neymar go right around him, and it's a winner for Brazil! We went all-in on penalties, and that was a sensible way to play this, but Neymar finally produce a moment of magic.

Neymar of Brazil celebrates World Cup goal vs Croatia
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Penalties are still in play, but only if Croatia get an equalizer. They have 15 minutes to do so! Thankfully, hedging the bets with a full-time score helps immensely.

HIGHLIGHT: Watch in USA | Watch in Canada

98th min: PICK — As this extra-time drags on with very few chances, we're making another pick for penalties. This will probably be the last pick of the day! Brazil are 8 of 13 in penalty shootouts all-time at major tournaments, and have won three straight at the World Cup. They have a brilliant run of attacking players in the side, and while Richarlison and Vinicius have come off, replacement Rodrygo is a perfect 3-for-3 from the spot in his career.

Conversely, while Croatia have won three of their four World Cup penalty shootouts, they were less than convincing against Japan in the Round of 16, with Marko Livaja missing his effort. Also, Alisson is spectacular at saving penalties.

  • PICK: Brazil to win on penalties (+180)

93rd min: PICK — There's some good value on extra-time finishing 0-0, which they so often do, enough to roll with it early. We already have a pick on this game going to penalties, but there's good value on doubling up. Brazil don't look likely to score, they have so little urgency against this Croatia tactical game-plan.

  • PICK: Extra-time correct score 0-0 (-110)

91st min: Brazil start extra-time with a corner as they push for a goal. It's been spotty from the from an attacking perspective, but they still have piled on the pressure at times.

FULLTIME: Croatia 0-0 Brazil

In typical Croatia fashion, this one remained goalless. It's the third game of five this tournament that Croatia has made it to regulation with a 0-0 draw. Many fans will hate that, but they've put in a defensive and possessional masterclass today, and that alone has been fun to watch. We're headed to extra time!

90+1 min: The corner pick hits in the nick of time! Brazil have had good attacking moments but they can't sustain anything due to Croatia's incredible defending and possessional play. That made it dicey.

85th min: Brazil haul off Richarlison in favor of Pedro at the central striker position. It's still very static from the South Americans. We've passed the 83rd minute where Casemiro won the match vs. Switzerland in the group stage.

80th min: Lucas Paqueta hits our shots on target selection! Still need two more corners but we bank one more. Brazil can't find a way to get past Livakovic.

73rd min: PICK — We're making a pair of selections here, and if either one hits, we come out on top. Brazil have won two matches this tournament at a later minute, and still could find a winner here with all their talent.

Croatia, meanwhile, are barely threatening the goal, and don't look likely to snatch a winner in regulation. However, the Europeans are doing well to snuff out the match and push for a penalty shootout, and that could be another likely scenario here. The only way this combo bet fails is if Croatia somehow get a goal from here on out.

  • PICK: Brazil to win 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 (+165)
  • PICK: Either team to win on penalties (+220)

68th min: Casemiro absorbs a yellow card to stop a Croatia counter attack. He was the betting favorite for Brazil players to earn a booking, and he comes through. We need three more corners and two more shots on target from Brazil to hit our halftime selections. Those are low bars to clear, but Croatia continue to possess large stretches of the ball, forcing Brazil to defend.

64th min: Couple of subs for Brazil, as Vinicius Jr and Raphinha both come off, and on come Antony and Rodrygo. The latter has been bright off the bench a few times previously.

Brozovic yanks down Neymar in midfield, and he has to be careful, already on a yellow card. The Croatia midfielder could be a good shout to get a red card in this match, but that's still something that's so longshot it would be a tough ask.

57th min: PICK — Brazil have four shots on target at the moment and are beginning to find more joy going forward. The threshold to hit any value at right now is seven, and that should be doable as they push forward.

  • PICK: Brazil 7+ shots on target (+120)

54th min: Perisic goes from finisher to creator, floating one in for a teammate but it's just overhit. Could use him to get his head down and have another rip on goal!

Down the other end Livakovic makes another save. He's had a lot of work to do. It's starting to open up, we'll need to think about a play on Brazil total shots on target.

48th min: SAVE! What a save by Croatian goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic! Brazil are straight into the attack, and have a ton of early pressure. There's a check for a penalty, but it would be a soft one to give. Brazil are pushing hard here early, something to think about.

HIGHLIGHT: Watch in USA

2H Kickoff: PICK — Coming out of halftime, after doing a bit of research, I'm making a second pick at the break. Brazil have just one corner, but that should change as they chase the game longer and longer and as Croatia continue to expend energy.

Brazil have earned the most corners in the World Cup so far with 31, and while only 14 of those have come in the second half, that's been largely because they've been protecting leads. In the match against Switzerland, which profiles similarly to this one, Brazil didn't get their winning goal until the 83rd minute, and they racked up eight corners in that one. This is great value at +168.

  • PICK: Brazil over 4.5 corners (+165)

HALFTIME: Croatia 0-0 Brazil

A profitable first half! We've hit the under, and while Vinicius Jr. faded after his early bright start, the two picks come away with a positive net. Croatia controlled the pace of that 45 minutes, with Marcelo Brozovic, Luka Modric, and Mateo Kovacic taking the sting out of Brazil's attack.

Modric, Brozovic, Kovacic of Croatia 1H heatmap vs Brazil
SofaScore

PICK — At halftime, we're making another selection. Ivan Perisic is bossing the flanks, and looks like he has an eye for goal. He's joint-leader on shots in the match with two, but hasn't put either on target. It's silly to back anyone on Croatia to score, but he should come away with one shot on target through the final 45 minutes.

  • PICK: Ivan Perisic 1+ shot on target (+270)

Croatia vs Brazil: First match bets, picks, analysis, stats

39th min: We're watching corner markets intently right now. Croatia have bossed the first half, grinding it to a halt, and there's been just two total corners, one for each team. The unders are plummeting, with under 7.5 total corners now down to -115. That's something to watch, but Brazil have just one corner thus far, so keeping an eye on their over total could be valuable as well. Nothing to pull the trigger on just yet.

32nd min: There's a wild tactical battle going on right now on the flanks. Ivan Perisic has been a menace to Danilo on the left flank, while Eder Militao is deputizing at right-back for Brazil. Hard to tell which happened first, but both Croatia wingers and Brazil full-backs have both inverted. So it's Danilo on the right and Militao on the left for Brazil, while Perisic has moved to Croatia's left wing and Mario Pasalic is now on the right.

Something to watch. Danilo's already been booked in his battle with Perisic.

21st min: PICK — Brazil are having more attacking joy, and Vinicius Jr is loving life cutting in from the left. He's already got one shot on target, and nearly had a second but it was blocked by Dejan Lovren. We're all over Vinicius Jr. to have 2+ shots on target in the 1st half, he's already got one and looks to be the most aggressive Brazil forward.

  • PICK: Vinicius Jr to have 2+ shots on target in 1H (+240)

15th min: Croatia have the first corner of the match. That's bumped the corner odds through the roof, so we'll keep an eye on that under as well. Could be good value there if the half progresses with only a few more set-pieces. Under 7.5 or 8.5 are the numbers we're watching.

12th min: PICK — The under markets are falling fast, so we'll have to jump on them now. It's a bit early, and a moment of magic can break our hearts, but all three of Brazil's group stage matches were scoreless at the half, so we'll take it. Croatia have spent a lot of time on the ball, and that's a positive for the under.

  • PICK: 1st half under 0.5 goals (+145)

5th min: Interestingly, Croatia have the early pressure, with Brazil sitting back and defending. Neither side looks too keen to go at the other from the jump, so this could take some time to open up. The first half under 1.5 goals has no value right now (-290), but we will keep an eye on under 0.5 goals as this advances.

Kickoff: Here we go! The game is under way, we'll have all your analysis and picks right here.

A panda picked Brazil, if that factors into your bets here today. Don't know why it wouldn't, really.

Croatia vs Brazil: Pre-match analysis

7 mins to kickoff: One really fun aspect of this match to watch is the performance of opposing center-backs Josko Gvardiol of Croatia and Thiago Silva of Brazil. Gvardiol, just 20 years old, has been one of the best defenders in the tournament. He's second in the entire World Cup in total defensive actions (tackles won, clearances, and interceptions). Meanwhile, 38-year-old Silva captains Brazil and continues to perform at a high level despite his age. Who will break first?

The two of them are a big reason why the under is part of our pre-match best bets, which are shown below.

20 mins to kickoff: How about this? With all the neutrals hoping for a Brazil vs Argentina semifinal, FanDuel has a boosted future of both Brazil and Argentina to advance to the semifinals for plus odds. That's a great value selection!

30 mins to kickoff: Interestingly, there's a significant amount of volume on Croatia, more than one would expect at least, but all the money is on Brazil ahead of this match. If Croatia pull off a stunning upset, it won't be one that anyone saw coming. To this point, every indication is that Brazil are by far the better team, and Croatia have not justified any backing with their performances so far.

45 mins to kickoff: I am all aboard the Raphinha train for this match. The Barcelona winger has been one of the best players at this tournament, but somehow has not scored or assisted a goal, and therefore doesn't get the attention of his teammates. As a result, the value on his bets are inflated, which we can benefit from.

Raphinha has the most shots and most shots on target of any player on the Brazil roster, and he has the most expected goals of any player remaining in the competition without profiting (second to Jamal Musiala and Romelu Lukaku, both of whom are out of the tournament). With Raphinha at +300 to score or +200 to assist, it's a good shout.

1 hr to kickoff: Lineups are out, and there's no major surprises. Brazil name an unchanged side, while Croatia make two changes. The only interesting wrinkle for Croatia is Mario Pasalic comes into the attack in place of Marko Livaja, which is interesting since Livaja has been solid most of this tournament in his limited time, while Pasalic has only seen action off the bench thus far.

Remember, when placing player-specific bets, always wait for starting lineups to come out before confirming your selections, just incase!

1 hr 10 mins from kickoff: Now that we've talked match official, how about fouls? Neymar is consistently the most fouled player in the world, which holds true this World Cup. Neymar has won the most fouls per 90 minutes of anyone with at least 100 minutes. Jack Grealish has been a menace for England, but he's only played 80 total minutes.

1 hr 23 mins from kickoff: Let's have a closer look at today's match official, Michael Oliver. Premier League fans will be very familiar with Oliver, who is one of just three officials alongside Paul Tierney and Anthony Taylor to officiate 12 league games before the World Cup break.

Amongst those matches, Oliver has shown 39 yellow cards and one red card, whistling for 19.58 fouls per game. His mark of 3.25 yellows per game puts him 15th, while his 0.60 fouls per tackle mark also ranks him 15th. Overall, he's one of the more lenient officials in the Premier League, and referees this World Cup have been extremely hesitant to show yellow cards, even the most aggressive officials from other continents.

Over at FanDuel, the over/under on this match for total cards reflects this heavily. Under 3.5 total cards in the match is -158, which provides little value. However, you can get Croatia under 1.5 cards at +174, which might seem a tight window, but Croatia have been shown just four yellow cards thus far, and saw no cards in two of their four games, including the match against Belgium where they were pummeled all match. 

1 hr 35 mins from kickoff: Shockingly, Croatia have conceded the first goal in six of their last eight World Cup matches, with the only two they didn't concede first in being their two goalless draws this tournament. They've managed to avoid defeat in all but one of those games — the World Cup final in 2018.

That makes a pick of the first half to have more goals at +240 enticing, as Croatia could be primed for an early Brazil goal, and it's unlikely they'll be able to manage a comeback in this one. You can also get Argentina only to score in both halves at +140, which feels positive.

1 hr 45 mins from kickoff: There hasn't been a ton of pre-match line movement on this game, but the little bit there has been is in favor of Brazil. On BetMGM, Brazil opened as a -250 favorite, and that's shifted to -275.

Where we've seen the most movement is on the goals front. The over 2.5 total has gone from -140 to -150, indicating that the betting market sees Brazil tallying a few times in this game.

2 hrs from kickoff: Brazil are still the 2022 World Cup betting favorites, as they have been from the start, and it's not close. They started the tournament at +550, and have dropped all the way to +170 to win the World Cup, according to BetMGM. Second-favorites France are all the way back at +400, with England at +600.

Croatia vs Brazil best bets (pre-match)

  BetMGM Sports
Interaction		 ✔️ or ❌ Units +/-
Brazil -1.5 handicap/spread +100 2.07 — —
Brazil to win &
Under 3.5 total goals		 +100 1.87 — —
Neymar anytime scorer &
Raphinha anytime assist		 +405 — — —

Brazil vs. Croatia score prediction

  • Prediction: Brazil 2-0 Croatia

Croatia have shown nothing in this World Cup to indicate they can compete with Brazil at this stage of the tournament. Flat out, end of story.

Three draws to just one victory have proven Croatia are adept at scraping by against inferior opponents, but aside from the spectacular tournament by goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic and center-back Josko Gvardiol, this squad has not exactly impressed.

Their pair of scoreless group-stage draws (vs. Morocco and Belgium) proved they don't have enough in the attack to compete, and unless they manage to keep Brazil off the scoresheet, they will have little up front to match the goals they are sure to concede.

Brazil vs. Croatia pre-match best bet

  • Pick: Brazil -1.5 handicap
  • Odds: +100 (BetMGM)

Brazil clobbered South Korea in the Round of 16 as Neymar returned to join white-hot attackers Richarlison and Raphinha. The attacking trio is in sensational form, feeding each other for chances and finishing them off with ruthless intent.

Croatia are excellent defensively, but against this tireless Brazil attack, will eventually cave. This should be a multi-goal victory for the Selecao, and anything less will be cause for concern moving forward into the semifinals against more talented teams.

Croatia vs Brazil odds (pre-match)

Below are the odds for the match released on Monday, December 5, four days before kickoff.

  BetMGM Sports
Interaction
Croatia win +700 7.80
Draw +360 4.60
Brazil win -250 1.36
Both teams to
score (Yes / No)		 +105 / -150 2.04 / 1.61
Over / Under
2.5 total goals		 -130 / -105 1.78 / 1.93
Brazil -1.5 +105 2.05
Croatia +1.5 -155 1.72
Brazil to advance -650 1.16
Croatia to advance +360 4.70

Note: Odds above for 90 minutes of regulation except "to advance."

How to watch Croatia vs Brazil

This quarterfinal match between Croatia and Brazil will be played at the Education City Stadium.

Here's how you can watch all the action in some of the major global territories.

  Date Time TV Channel Streaming
USA Fri, Dec. 9 10:00 ET Fox,
Telemundo		 fuboTV,
Fox Sports site/app,
Telemundo Deportes site/app,
Peacock
Canada Fri, Dec. 9 10:00 ET TSN 1, RDS (French) TSN site/app,
RDS app
UK Fri, Dec. 9 15:00 GMT BBC One BBC iPlayer, BBC website
Australia Sat, Dec. 10 02:00 AEDT SBS SBS On Demand
India Fri, Dec. 9 20:30 IST Sports18 Voot, JioTV
Hong Kong Fri, Dec. 9 23:00 HKT Now TV (Ch. 616, 618) Now TV
Malaysia Fri, Dec. 9 23:00 MYT Astro FIFA World Cup 1 Astro GO
Singapore Fri, Dec. 9 23:00 SGT StarHub FIFA World Cup,
Singtel FIFA World Cup 141		 Singtel TV GO, CAST,
StarHub TV+, MeWatch
New Zealand Sat, Dec. 10 04:00 NZDT Sky Sport 7 beIN Sports Sky Go, Sky Sport NOW
Author(s)
Kyle Bonn Photo
Kyle Bonn

Kyle Bonn is a soccer content producer for The Sporting News.