Champions League quarterfinal scenarios: How Chelsea, Manchester United, Ajax, Juventus & others can advance to quarterfinals

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The last two fixtures in the Champions League Round of 16 take place on Wednesday, with the final two tickets to the quarterfinals at stake.

This stage concludes with reigning Champions League holders Chelsea traveling to Lille and Juventus welcoming Villarreal to Turin.

Here's a look at how each team could progress from this week's second legs.

A reminder that away goals will not count as a tiebreaker beginning this season. So the math should be fairly straightforward for the rest of the tournament.


Lille vs. Chelsea (0-2 on aggregate) 

Reigning champions Chelsea eased to a comfortable 2-0 home win over Lille in the first leg, thanks to goals from young forwards Kai Havertz and Christian Pulisic. Lille have only lost once at home this season and will provide a tough challenge for the English side.

How Chelsea can advance to the quarterfinals:

  • A win, draw or a one-goal loss would see Chelsea through to the quarterfinals. A two-goal loss would force extra time and a three-goal loss or worse would eliminate the defending champs.

How Lille can advance to the quarterfinals:

  • The French side need to win by two goals just to force extra time. A win by three goals or more would see the French side move on in what would be one of the biggest upsets in tournament history.

Juventus vs Villarreal (1-1 on aggregate) 

Dusan Vlahovic had a dream debut in the Champions League for his new side, when he opened the scoring after only 33 seconds. However, the Spanish side clawed a goal back in the 66th minute through Dani Parejo with this series now on an absolute knife-edge going into the second leg in Italy.

How Juventus can advance to the quarterfinals:

  • A victory would see the storied Italian side move on to the quarters, but a draw of any scoreline would force extra time. A loss would see them eliminated.

How Villarreal can advance to the quarterfinals:

  • It's the same story for Villarreal: Win and advance, draw and go to extra time. Lose and go home.

Is there away goals in the Champions League?

Starting with this season, the away goals tiebreaker will no longer be in place in the Champions League knockout rounds.

The away goals rule, which saw goals scored away from home serve as the tiebreaker in case teams were even on aggregate goals scored, had been in place since 1965. 

Now, if the two teams are level on goals after 180 minutes, then extra time (consisting of two 15-minute halves) will be played, with penalties to follow if the deadlock still hasn't been broken. 


Ajax vs Benfica (2-3 on aggregate) 

It was honors even in the first leg, with Ajax taking the lead twice, only to be pegged back by the Portuguese side, leaving this series firmly in the balance going into the second leg.

But a lone goal by star striker Darwin Nunez with 13 minutes remaining gave Benfica the edge they needed to get through in Amsterdam, shocking Ajax fans in the process.

How Ajax can advance to the quarterfinals (❌):

  • A win for the Dutch side by any scoreline would see them qualify, but any draw would see them go to extra time. A loss and they're out.

How Benfica can advance to the quarterfinals (✔️):

  • Similarly, the Portuguese side need a win to advance in 90 minutes of regulation, whereas a draw would see them go to extra time. They would be eliminated with a defeat.

Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid (1-2 on aggregate) 

Manchester United equalized late in Madrid to bring the series back on level terms following a solid display. Joao Felix opened the scoring before Anthony Elanga scored in the closing stages for the Red Devils. 

But Man United were not so lucky in the second leg at Old Trafford. The Red Devils hit the woodwork and then watched Atletico Madrid take the lead through Renan Lodi. And Diego Simeone then did what Cholo teams know best: they defended for their lives and denied Man United at every turn to come away with the narrow aggregate-goal triumph.

How Manchester United can advance to the quarterfinals (❌):

  • Any scoreline with a victory will see United qualify, but any draw will see them head into extra time. A loss will eliminate the English side.

How Atletico Madrid can advance to the quarterfinals (✔️):

  • Any scoreline with a victory will see Atletico Madrid qualify, but any draw will also force extra time. A loss will see them bow out.
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