United States awaits Copa America draw; don't expect anything easy

The initial reaction to Pot 2 was to see Ecuador as the weak link, but La Tricolor began World Cup qualifying in impressive fashion and poses a serious threat with a combination of tough defending and game-changing athleticism.

Making Ecuador's fast start in qualifying even more impressive is the fact it took place with striker Enner Valencia injured. Valencia (pictured above) is back healthy, and if he is available this summer, he will be a handful.

If there is a team you could call vulnerable in this tough grouping it is Colombia, which has been struggling to recapture its best form since a strong showing at the 2014 World Cup. Jose Pekerman's side had a woeful showing at last summer's Copa America, and more recently with mixed results in the early stages of World Cup qualifying.

March qualifiers should be a good barometer for where the Cafeteros are heading, but if they struggle next month, having them in your Copa Centenario group might not look like such a bad thing anymore.

One thing to note about Colombia: It should have one of the strongest followings in the tournament, particularly if placed in Argentina's group, where the Pot 2 team would have two group stage games in the Northeast. Cafeteros fans there would come out in force.

The toughest draw in Pot 2 is Uruguay, which has enjoyed a strong start in qualifying and will get Luis Suarez from his international suspension in March. With Suarez in top form, and Edinson Cavani also a dangerous threat up top, La Celeste would be a terrible draw for the Americans.

Chile is the defending Copa America champion, and a tough draw in its own right, but one must wonder how much of a post-championship hangover the team will have. La Roja is off to a decent start in qualifying, but Uruguay handed the Chileans a 3-0 drubbing in a recent World Cup qualifier. Plus, there's the uncertainty of a new manager after Jorge Sampaoli left the post.

All that said, Chile wouldn't be as desirable a draw for the Americans, or anybody else in Pot 1, than an out-of-form Colombia, and even Ecuador.

South American fans will likely be looking at this pot with glee at what they might consider to be easy matches. American fans should know better though, especially after last summer's Gold Cup.

There is zero debate that Haiti is the weak link in this pot, and arguably the weakest team in the field. The Caribbean side lost qualifiers to Jamaica and Costa Rica in November, and it showed little spark in last summer's Gold Cup.

The U.S. and Mexico will both be hoping to avoid Costa Rica in Pot 2. The Ticos shouldn't be an unknown any more outside of CONCACAF after their outstanding showing at the 2014 World Cup. Led by the likes of Keylor Navas (pictured above), Joel Campbell and Bryan Ruiz, Costa Rica will be a handful for any of the top seeds.

Jamaica's impressive showing at the 2015 Gold Cup, and admirable if unsuccessful run at the 2015 Copa America, should have opponents wary of drawing the Reggae Boyz. Jurgen Klinsmann would probably love nothing more than to have another chance at the team that knocked the U.S. out of the Gold Cup, especially in front of what would be a strongly pro-U.S. crowd in Chicago.

Panama is a team that just might surprise people this summer. The Canaleros opened World Cup qualifying with a road win against Jamaica in November, which should serve notice that while its nucleus of leaders is on the older side, Panama might have one final strong tournament push left.

The second tier of South Americans teams should be teams the Americans can handle, but some potential matchups are clearly more favorable than others.

Venezuela is the weak link and is probably joining Haiti as the draws most people will want. Apart from a stunning win against Colombia in its opening match of the 2015 Copa America, there hasn't been much to get excited about for La Vino Tinto. It lost all four World Cup qualifiers last fall and won't pose much of a threat this summer, and it won't likely have a big following here to offer support.

Bolivia is another very favorable draw for the Americans if it happens. A surprising run to the 2015 Copa America quarterfinals shouldn't be forgotten, but La Verde showed little in recent qualifiers. Its big advantage of playing at home in altitude won't be able to help this summer.

Paraguay might be considered the team to avoid in this group based on the current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying standings, but don't be fooled. A cushy schedule that has featured wins against Venezuela and Bolivia are the key reason for that strong start. To be clear, La Albirroja is on the tougher end of Pot 4, but not necessarily the toughest draw.

That distinction should go to Peru. A brutal early schedule featuring matches against Colombia, Chile and Brazil has Peru in an early hole, but that shouldn't erase the memories of a good finish at the 2015 Copa America. Peru defeated Paraguay in last summer's third-place match, and more recently in World Cup qualifying.

Why should the U.S. worry about Peru, particularly after last September's friendly victory? For one, Peru was without star striker Paolo Guerrero (pictured above) when it lost to the Americans. Secondly, if the U.S. draws Peru, the sides would meet in Philadelphia. There are more people of Peruvian descent in the U.S. northeast than anywhere outside Peru, and the crowd at Lincoln Financial Field would have a strong Peruvian contingent that would give Peru far more fan support than any of the other teams in Pot 4 could generate.

Best-case scenario: Colombia, Haiti, Venezuela

Reasonable scenario: Ecuador, Panama, Bolivia

Tough scenario: Chile, Jamaica, Paraguay

Worst-case scenario: Uruguay, Costa Rica, Peru

Most balanced draw

Group A:  USA, Uruguay, Haiti, Peru

Group B:  Brazil, Ecuador, Jamaica, Bolivia

Group C:  Mexico, Chile, Panama, Paraguay

Group D:  Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Venezuela