Caleb Wiliams will make history for USC on Thursday if he is selected by the Chicago Bears with the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
That would give the Trojans six No.1 overall picks – which is the most of any school. Williams – who won the Heisman Trophy in 2022 – will also be the sixth USC quarterback to be selected in the first round in the Common Draft era.
That history has mixed reviews – and it's a narrative Williams will have to overcome at the next level. Can a USC quarterback be a franchise quarterback at the next level? Who are those other first-round quarterbacks? Will Williams break the mold?
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Caleb Williams USC career stats
Williams played one season at Oklahoma in 2021, where he passed for 1,912 yards, 21 TDs and four interceptions. Lincoln Riley took the USC job after the season, and Williams transferred to USC on Feb. 1, 2022.
Williams won the Heisman Trophy in 2022. He passed for 4,537 yards with 42 TDs and five interceptions. The yards and TDs were both single-season USC records. He added 380 rushing yards and 10 TDs. The Trojans finished 11-3 and made the Pac-12 championship game.
In 2023, Williams passed for 3,633 yards, 30 TDs and five interceptions. He added 142 rushing yards and 11 TDs. The Trojans averaged 41.8 points per game but finished 8-5.
Williams ranks fourth at USC in passing TDs with 72 and seventh in passing yards with 8,170.
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USC QBs in NFL Draft history
A total of 26 USC quarterbacks have been selected in the NFL Draft. Jim Hardy was the No. 8 pick in the 1945 NFL Draft. Pete Beathard was a first-round pick in the NFL Draft and AFL Draft in 1964. In the Common Draft era – which began in 1967 – a total of 19 USC quarterbacks have been selected in the draft. Five of those quarterbacks were first-round picks.
A look at those 19 quarterbacks and their NFL careers:
| YEAR | NAME | ROUND | PICK | RECORD | PLAYOFFS | CAREER STATS |
| 1970 | Mike Holmgren | 8 | 201 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
| 1973 | Mike Rae | 8 | 205 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1,536 yards, 12 TDs, 14 INTs |
| 1975 | Pat Haden | 7 | 176 | 35-19-1 | 2-3 | 9,296 yards, 52 TDs, 60 INTs |
| 1977 | Vince Evans | 6 | 140 | 14-25 | 0-0 | 9,485 yards, 52 TDs, 74 INTs |
| 1978 | Rob Hertel | 5 | 131 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 yards |
| 1980 | Paul McDonald | 4 | 109 | 8-13 | 0-1 | 5,269 yards, 24 TDs, 37 INTs |
| 1989 | Rodney Peete | 6 | 141 | 45-42 | 1-1 | 16,338 yards, 76 TDs, 92 INTs |
| 1991 | Todd Marinovich | 1 | 24 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 1,345 yards, 8 TDs, 9 INTs |
| 1991 | Pat O'Hara | 10 | 260 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
| 1995 | Rob Johnson | 4 | 99 | 12-17 | 0-1 | 5,795 yards, 30 TDs, 23 INTs |
| 1996 | Kyle Wachholtz | 7 | 240 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
| 2003 | Carson Palmer | 1 | 1 | 92-88-1 | 1-3 | 46,247 yards, 294 TDs, 187 INTs |
| 2005 | Matt Cassel | 7 | 230 | 36-45 | 0-1 | 17,508 yards, 104 TDs, 82 INTs |
| 2006 | Matt Leinart | 1 | 10 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 4,065 yards, 18 TDs, 21 INTs |
| 2008 | Mark Sanchez | 1 | 5 | 37-36 | 4-2 | 15,357 yards, 86 TDs, 89 INTs |
| 2008 | John David Booty | 5 | 137 | 0-0 | 0-0 | - |
| 2013 | Matt Barkley | 4 | 98 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2,699 yards, 11 TDs, 22 INTs |
| 2016 | Cody Kessler | 3 | 93 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 2,215 yards, 8 TDs, 5 INTs |
| 2018 | Sam Darnold | 1 | 3 | 21-35 | 0-0 | 12,064, 63 TDs, 56 INTs |
Only four of those USC quarterbacks threw for more than 15,000 yards in the NFL, a list that includes Carson Palmer (46,247), Matt Cassel (17,508), Rodney Peete (16,338) and Mark Sanchez (15,357). Darnold – who signed with the Minnesota Vikings this offseason – has a chance to join that list. Palmer, Peete, Pat Haden and Mark Sanchez all had a winning record as a starter in the NFL.
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How USC first-round QBs fared in the NFL
Wiliams stands to be the eighth USC quarterback to be selected in the first round and the sixth in the Super Bowl era.
The other five quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era produced mixed results.
Todd Marinovich — the No. 24 pick in 1991 — played just two seasons in the NFL with the Los Angeles Raiders.
Carson Palmer – the No. 1 pick in the 2003 NFL Draft – is the most-successful NFL quarterback from USC. Palmer played 14 NFL seasons with the Bengals, Raiders and Cardinals – and he recovered from a gruesome knee injury in the 2005 AFC Wild Card against Pittsburgh. Palmer ranks 15th in NFL history with 294 TD passes.
Matt Leinart – the No. 10 pick in the 2006 NFL Draft – made 18 career starts in a seven-year NFL career.
Mark Sanchez – the No. 5 pick in the 2008 NFL Draft – played eight seasons. He had a 37-36 record as a starter but was a backup option in his last four seasons.
Darnold – the No. 3 pick in 2018 – is on his fourth NFL team. He played with the Jets, Panthers and 49ers and has compiled a 21-35 record as a starter.
Has a USC QB started in the Super Bowl?
Williams would be the first quarterback to do that if he leads the Chicago Bears there.
Those 19 USC quarterbacks who were drafted have combined for an 8-12 record as a starter in the NFL playoffs. Sanchez (4-2), Haden (2-3), Palmer (1-1) and Peete (1-1) have postseason victories as a starter. Those quarterbacks were 0-5 in conference championship games.
Sanchez had the best playoff track record of the USC quarterbacks. He passed for 1,155 yards, nine TDs and three interceptions in six playoff starts. The Jets lost 30-17 to the Colts in the 2009 AFC championship game and 24-19 to Pittsburgh in the 2010 AFC championship game.
Haden played in two NFC championship games with the Los Angeles Rams. Los Angeles lost 24-13 to the Minnesota Vikings in the 1976 NFC championship game and 28-0 to the Dallas Cowboys in the 1978 NFC championship game.
Palmer was 0-2 with the Bengals in the playoffs. He led the Cardinals to the 2015 NFC championship game, where they lost 49-15 to the Carolina Panthers.
Peete was 1-1 in a pair of playoff starts with the Philadelphia Eagles in 1995.
Will Caleb Williams break the USC trend?
Palmer and Leinart also were Heisman Trophy winners entering the NFL. Williams is a special talent – he has been compared by some draft experts to Patrick Mahomes.
Williams also will have to break the Chicago Bears' quarterback curse. He will be the 30th starting quarterback for the Bears since 2000 – a remarkable run of futility at the position. With the exception of Palmer in Cincinnati and to an extent Sanchez with those Jets, those other USC quarterbacks struggled to turn around teams as a franchise quarterback.
If Williams can break the USC and Bears mold, then he will be one of the most celebrated quarterbacks in the NFL.