A lot happened during the 2022-23 NFL season and playoffs that was unpredictable, but in the end, the Chiefs and Eagles — objectively the two best teams in football — found their way to Super Bowl 57.
It's the 14th Super Bowl meeting between two No. 1 seeds in NFL history and the first since 2018, when the Eagles also represented the NFC and defeated the Patriots, 41-33, in Super Bowl 52.
Looking back, the Chiefs were expected to be here, an odds-on preseason favorite for most sportsbooks (+450). The Eagles, however, were viewed as longshots coming off a 9-8 season (+7000) but finished 14-3, tied with their 2023 Super Bowl adversary atop the NFL.
Fast-forward five months and the Jalen Hurts-led Renaissance in Philadelphia is favored to deliver the franchise its second championship. In fact, four of Sporting News' six experts are picking the Eagles to defeat the Chiefs in Arizona.
Kansas City opened as a slim 1.5-point favorite to beat Philadelphia but that line quickly shifted in favor of the Eagles, who were 2-point favorites as of Jan. 31. The SN staff is divided on the Vegas point total (49.5), with three of six writers projecting the over.
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Below are all of our expert picks for Super Bowl 57, complete with explanations for each pick and score predictions for Eagles vs. Chiefs (all odds courtesy of BetMGM).
Super Bowl 2023 predictions: Expert picks for Eagles vs. Chiefs
- Location: Glendale, Ariz.
- Kickoff time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- TV: Fox
- Point spread: Eagles -2
- Over/under: 49.5
- Moneyline: Eagles -130, Chiefs +110
Vinnie Iyer: The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, but the Eagles have their own MVP-caliber quarterback in Jalen Hurts, who benefits from the better offensive line, running game and wide receivers. The Eagles also have fewer holes in their defense behind a strong pass rush, thanks to their reliable secondary. Philadelphia, like it was seeded No. 1 during its Super Bowl 52 run, completes an amazing season with the more complete team.
Prediction: Eagles 31, Chiefs 27
Bill Bender: The line could fluctuate, but as of now it’s a chance to see the Chiefs in an underdog role. Kansas City has been an underdog just seven times under Andy Reid since 2019, and they are 4-3 in that role. Nick Sirianni and the Eagles were 10-8 ATS as a favorite and 5-0 S/U against non-conference teams this season.
It's a historic matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, and it comes down to which quarterback makes the magical plays on third down against the pass rush. Kansas City (48.8%) and Philadelphia (47.5%) ranked second and third, respectively on third-down conversion percentage.
The Chiefs also must generate at least the appearance of a running game to fend off the Eagles’ loaded pass rush. Philadelphia will lead the game at halftime, but look for Mahomes — who has two weeks to rest a high-ankle sprain — to provide those magic moments in the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Chiefs 31, Eagles 28
MORE SUPER BOWL 57: Halftime show | Location | Tickets
Matt Lutovsky: The Eagles have been dominant virtually all year, losing just one of Jalen Hurts’ starts. The offense scored the third-most points this season and is borderline unstoppable in short-yardage situations, and the defense led the NFL in sacks and pass defense.
Kansas City is no slouch, leading the league in total offense and scoring offense, but its defense doesn’t quite measure up to Philly’s. When you throw in Patrick Mahomes’ gimpy ankle and the numerous injuries to Kansas City’s receivers, it’s easy to favor the Eagles.
The Chiefs have the edge in experience, especially at head coach — and you can never count out Mahomes as long as he’s on the field — but Philadelphia is simply better and healthier.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Chiefs 20
Joe Rivera: Jalen Hurts looked a bit off in the NFC championship game, going 15-of-25 passing for 121 yards, with Philadelphia relying on a tough ground game to grind the Niners into oblivion. If that's what they can do against the NFL's top defense, then they should be able to do it again vs. the Chiefs.
That, though, is omitting one minor, teeny-tiny detail: The Eagles didn't play against an offense that was full strength, knocking both Brock Purdy and Josh Johnson out of the game. They won't have the same luck going conservative against a recovered Patrick Mahomes and a Chiefs offense that can move the ball at will and score when it absolutely needs to.
That's not to say offense will come easy. Last time we saw No. 15, in the Super Bowl, he was eaten alive by the Tampa Bay pass rush, running for his life on nearly every drop back — and still making somewhat miraculous throws while he was at it. Even with a reworked O-line, expect Philly to give the Chiefs fits in the trenches.
It's insanely evenly matched, but Andy Reid will reach deep into his bag of tricks to down his old team in a razor-close win for KC.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Eagles 20
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Jacob Camenker: Patrick Mahomes finally got the monkey off his back, earning his first head-to-head win against Joe Burrow in four tries while heroically playing through a high-ankle sprain in the AFC championship game. But now, he will face his toughest test of the season against a formidable Eagles team.
Philadelphia certainly has the advantage in this matchup given its combination of an excellent running game and a top-tier defense. The Eagles will look to control this game on the ground with Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts to keep Kansas City's pass rush — which thrived against the Bengals — off-balance. They should be able to do that thanks to their stellar offensive line.
Defensively, the Eagles' top task will be containing Mahomes, and they have the pass rush needed to do that. They had 70 sacks during the regular season — good for the third-most by a team in NFL history — and have added eight sacks in their two postseason games. They should get plenty of pressure on Mahomes with Haason Reddick, Brandon Graham and Co. and that should be enough to slow the Chiefs' offense down in this contest.
In a way, this feels similar to the Chiefs' Super Bowl 55 loss to the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay's pass rush dominated that game and rendered Mahomes ineffective in a blowout. Kansas City will fare better this time with a better offensive line, but Philadelphia can ride this clear-cut advantage to the franchise's second Super Bowl title.
Prediction: Eagles 28, Chiefs 24
Kevin Skiver: It's hard to get a read on these Eagles because while the ease of their path to the Super Bowl is overblown, they did beat a team that was carrying half a quarterback for a full half on championship weekend. With that being said, we've seen time and time again elite defenses prevail when it matters most in the NFL, and there's no reason to think this Eagles team is any different. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' running back hydra of Kenneth Gainwell, Miles Sanders, and Boston Scott dismantled the 49ers defense, and the Eagles are built for physical football.
The Chiefs exploited weaknesses in the Bengals roster, but the Eagles don't have those weaknesses. Three of their offensive linemen made the Pro Bowl and they had the second-best defense in the NFL during the regular season (and just beat No. 1).
The Colts beat the Chiefs an eternity ago by controlling the game. The Bills beat them with an elite QB performance. And the Bengals won Round 1 this year by limiting Patrick Mahomes' effectiveness. The Eagles have the tools to do all three.
Prediction: Eagles 24, Chiefs 20