NFL win totals 2022: Bengals, Chiefs, Steelers among best bets to beat over-under projections

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The busiest part of the 2022 NFL offseason has come and gone. Teams have rebuilt their rosters during free agency and the 2022 NFL Draft and now, rosters are mostly set for the rest of the offseason.

Sure, there are still some quality free agents that are yet to be signed. Teams will also continue to shuffle the back-end of their 90-man rosters as well to scout depth in the league's player pool. But for the most part, we know the core of each NFL team, and that means we can more accurately assess how teams stack up against their win totals.

Win total bets always become popular for NFL fans around the time of the schedule release. The logic is that once we know how a schedule is structured, we can find value picks among the projected over/under win totals. As such, bettors will keep a keen eye on the 2022 NFL schedule release Thursday night.

Which teams have the highest win totals for 2022, and which teams can you count on to exceed (or fall short of) those totals? Here's everything to know about NFL win totals as the league releases its 2022 schedule.

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NFL win totals 2022

No NFL teams are projected to win more games than the Bills and Buccaneers. Both have projected win totals of 11.5, per DraftKings Sportsbook, but the Bills are considered more likely to go over that total. Their over odds are -130 while the Bucs' over odds are -110.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Texans are the only team with a sub-five win total. DraftKings has given them a win total of 4.5. They are widely expected to come in under that number, as their odds of going under 4.5 are -150.

Below is a look at the projected win totals for 31 of the 32 NFL teams, via odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, as well as the odds of each team going over and under their projected win total. The only team yet to be listed is the Browns (more on that later).

Team Win totals Over odds Under odds
Bears 6.5 -110 -105
Bengals 10 +110 -130
Bills 11.5 -130 +110
Broncos 10 -110 -110
Browns N/a N/a N/a
Buccaneers 11.5 -110 -110
Cardinals 9 +115 -135
Chargers 10 -115 -105
Chiefs 10.5 -115 -105
Colts 9.5 -130 +110
Commanders 7.5 -125 +105
Cowboys 10.5 -105 -115
Dolphins 9 +100 -120
Eagles 8.5 -140 +115
Falcons 5 +100 -120
49ers 10 -110 -110
Giants 7 -110 -110
Jaguars 6 -120 +100
Jets 5.5 -145 +120
Lions 6.5 +100 -120
Packers 11 -125 +105
Panthers 6 -105 -115
Patriots 8.5 -120 +100
Raiders 8.5 -110 -110
Rams 10.5 -110 -110
Ravens 9.5 -130 +100
Saints 8 -110 -110
Seahawks 5.5 -120 +100
Steelers 7.5 -120 +100
Texans 4.5 +125 -150
Titans 9.5 +115 -135
Vikings 9 +100 -120

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Best over-under win total bets

Bengals OVER 10 (+110)

The Bengals are fresh off a Super Bowl appearance, but sportsbooks don't seem to have much faith that they will repeat their success in 2022. They are favored to post under 10 wins, so that creates great value for bettors that are confident in Cincinnati.

There's little reason to expect a Bengals regression in 2022. The team had one major weakness last season — the offensive line — and fixed it by signing Alex Cappa, La'el Collins and Ted Karras in free agency. Joe Burrow will take fewer hits and have more time to throw as a result of those additions.

Also, the Bengals don't have all that tough of a schedule considering how strong the AFC is this season. They should be able to rack up some wins facing two of the NFL's weaker divisions, the AFC East and NFC South. Their intradivisional NFC North play will prove difficult as always, but the Bengals have the personnel needed to beat any team. And the Bengals could get lucky with an easier matchup against the Browns if quarterback Deshaun Watson is suspended.

The Bengals went 10-7 last season with an inferior roster and less high-level experience. Burrow is also now even further removed from the torn ACL he suffered during his rookie year, too, so that should give the Bengals a chance to win 12 games in the AFC. Betting over 10 here seems like a no-brainer.

Patrick Mahomes

Chiefs OVER 10.5 (-115)

Andy Reid has been the coach of the Chiefs for nine seasons. In seven of those nine seasons, Kansas City has won at least 11 games. And during Patrick Mahomes' four years as a starter, the Chiefs have never won fewer than 12 regular-season games.

As such, betting the over on the Chiefs' win total seems like a good bet. Sure, the team is a bit different this year than it was in 2021. They no longer have Tyreek Hill and the competition from the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders in the AFC West is stiff.

Even still, Mahomes and Reid have proven to be one of the best quarterback and head coach combinations in the NFL. They can be trusted to win at least 11 games. After all, they started 3-4 last season and still managed to earn 12 wins. They should easily post 11 wins in 2022, especially if they can avoid a similarly slow start.

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Panthers UNDER 6 (-115)

There are a few teams to consider taking the under with at this juncture, but none is as clear-cut as the Panthers. Their win total of six seems high when looking at their quarterback situation as well as their list of 2022 opponents.

Currently, the Panthers are expected to start either Sam Darnold or third-round rookie Matt Corral at quarterback. While Corral has upside, he may need time to develop at the NFL level. If he isn't ready to play, it will be difficult for the Panthers' offense to move the ball consistently, as Darnold was inaccurate (59.9 completion percentage) and turnover-prone (13 INTs) last season.

The Panthers' quarterback issues are concerning enough without a difficult schedule. However, they will have to deal with one of those, too, as they are playing teams from the AFC North and NFC West in 2022. Those divisions are two of the three best in the NFL, and the Panthers will be at a quarterback disadvantage in most of those matchups.

Carolina could be saved a bit by matchups with the Lions, Giants and Falcons (twice), but even those may be tougher than people realize. As such, there's little room for error on the Panthers' schedule. Expect them to go under unless Carolina's defense can carry them or Corral can emerge as a solid starter.

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Steelers OVER 7.5 (-120)

Incredibly, Mike Tomlin has never finished a season as the Steelers coach with a record below .500. He has at least eight wins in each of his 15 seasons, and that includes a 9-7-1 record in 2021. Tomlin accomplished that despite having to use an over-the-hill Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. His team still made the playoffs as the No. 7 seed.

The Steelers should have a chance to post a similar record in 2022. Sure, there are questions at the quarterback position, with Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky set to battle for the starting job, but the truth is that either should be an upgrade over what Roethlisberger offered last season. Maybe the Steelers will be a bit more turnover-prone, but they won't be limited to just the short passing game anymore either.

Pittsburgh plays in a tough division that could be a slog, but they should be well-rested throughout the season. They are only set to travel 6,442 miles during the NFL season, which is by far the fewest in the NFL. They won't leave the Eastern time zone despite playing in nine road games.

As such, the Steelers should be fresh. And outside of the AFC North games, the team has to play against the AFC East and NFC South. There are plenty of winnable games in there for Pittsburgh, so they can certainly post a winning record. And even if not, getting eight wins is more than doable.

Deshaun Watson
(Getty Images)

Why isn't the Browns win total listed?

There is only one team that doesn't yet have a win total listed. That is the Browns. Cleveland's win total isn't available at DraftKings, and other sportsbooks are almost certainly going to hold off on posting the line as well.

Why is that? It all stems from uncertainty surrounding the Browns' quarterback position. They acquired Deshaun Watson during the 2022 NFL offseason, but he is facing potential discipline from the NFL regarding the 20-plus cases of sexual assault and misconduct again him.

Right now, it's unknown whether Watson will be suspended. That makes it hard to project exactly how many wins Cleveland might have, as sportsbooks legitimately don't know for how many games he will be the quarterback. There's also little clarity behind him, as the Browns are still holding onto Baker Mayfield but signed Jacoby Brissett during the offseason. That is muddying the water a bit as well.

The Browns' win total will eventually be released, but it won't come until we know what lies ahead for Watson. So, if you're looking to bet Cleveland's over or under, you will have to be patient.

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Jacob Camenker is a senior content producer at The Sporting News.