New York Jets Super Bowl odds 2023: Aaron Rodgers trade shifts Jets' futures odds

Days before the start of the 2023 NFL Draft, the New York Jets acquired their new franchise quarterback, four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers. Reuniting with former offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, Rodgers and the upstart Jets profile as a legit contender to make noise in 2023-24, just as their AFC and Super Bowl odds indicate.

With Rodgers announcing his intentions to head to the Big Apple in mid-March, the betting markets began factoring in his addition on futures boards. Per BetMGM, the Jets initially opened with a +2500 price tag to hoist the Lombardi in '24 but went all the way down to +1400 in mid-March. On April 25, one day after the trade became official, that's exactly where the Jets stand, sitting with the sixth-best odds to win the Super Bowl and the fourth-best odds to win the AFC.

Are the Jets correctly priced as a contender, and more importantly, do they warrant an early bet to win either the AFC or Super Bowl?

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AFC Champion 2024 odds: Top eight contenders

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

New York owns a 7-1 price tag to win the AFC, giving the Jets a 12.5-percent implied probability to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1968. In Robert Saleh's second year in New York, the Jets saw a win total increase of three games and ended the regular season with the sixth-most efficient defense relative to their EPA per play numbers (-0.045).

Bettors are hoping Rodgers turns in a Brady-esque first year with his new franchise, as the Jets (+700) also own the highest ticket (17.1 percent) and handle percentage (18.9 percent) to win the AFC at BetMGM. New York's offense is sure to improve in efficiency after ending last season 30th in EPA/play (-0.086) with AFC Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson now paired up with an elite signal caller. Couple that with respectable second and third options Allen Lazard and Corey Davis out wide plus a healthy Breece Hall back in the fold, and on paper, the Jets look like a real threat to compete in a crowded AFC East.

The offensive line is still a major concern and likely an area Joe Douglas and company will address this week after the Jets finished 2022-23 with the 30th-best pass-blocking grade and 27th-best run-blocking grade, per PFF. They did ink former 49ers left guard Laken Tomlinson to a three-year deal this offseason, a step in the right direction, but still need to shore up their group of blockers.

We agree with the betting market's assessment of where the Jets stand, sitting behind the Chiefs/Bills/Bengals tier but ahead of the Chargers/Dolphins/Ravens/Jaguars tier. In terms of putting your hard-earned money on a Jets AFC title this upcoming season, we'd hold off for now given how competitive the AFC is projected to be.

These markets are available to bet into all season long, and if the Jets were to get off to a less-than-ideal start, we'll see their price lengthen toward the Chargers/Dolphins/Ravens/Jaguars tier. The market is already telling you the Jets are one of the top teams in the AFC, so there's little value in betting on a 7-1 future unless you feel they deserve to be priced in the Chiefs/Bills/Bengals tier. We don't see the Jets among that group right now, therefore we'd refrain from jumping onto the hype train and making an impulsive bet.

Super Bowl 2024 odds: Top 12 contenders

On the Super Bowl front, it takes a second to adjust your eyes to the Jets' sixth-best odds. Even though this move was in the works for over a month, it's still going to take time to get used to Rodgers in the Big Apple.

Given how complete Saleh's defense is, the Jets' pricing is justified, but just like their AFC title odds, there isn't an edge betting them at 14-1. The five franchises with better odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy are stronger teams that would be priced as neutral-site favorites over the Jets right now.

Can the Jets win the AFC East? Without question. Will the Jets win the AFC East? We're not so sure. Having to go on the road as a potential wild-card team makes the Jets' path to a Super Bowl much more difficult, and if they were to own one of the AFC's three wild-card spots, chances are their Super Bowl odds will hover in this general vicinity come early January. 

Since we're expecting the Bills to reclaim the AFC East, we wouldn't bet the Jets at +1400 to win the Super Bowl at the moment. Given the public's interest in betting on the Jets this offseason, there's a chance the Jets enter the season closer to the 12-1 mark, though. We still want to see how well Rodgers and company mesh during the regular season before risking a portion of our bankroll on a championship run. Since we're not forced to make a bet right now with these markets available all season, we'll respect the market's assessment of the Jets but still see them as a team that's in the hunt.