The AFC East-leading Dolphins host the reeling Titans to cap off Week 14 in one of two "Monday Night Football" matchups. Miami attempts to improve to 9-0 against sub-.500 teams this season, and Sports Interaction is fairly confident in the Dolphins' chances of doing just that, as their current -800 moneyline gives them an implied win probability of 88.89 percent.
Fresh off a stress-free 45-15 victory over the Commanders, the Dolphins have taken hold of the AFC East, sitting as the overwhelming favorites to win the division for the first time since 2008.
Meanwhile, the Titans suffered their fourth-straight loss last week, surrendering a 10-point lead thanks to several special teams miscues. Although the winner of Monday night's matchup seems rather straightforward, the point spread is always the great equalizer, which makes picking the ATS winner a challenging task.
Will the Dolphins maintain their dominance over sub-.500 teams, notching a home win and cover, or will the Titans keep it closer than the two-touchdown spread, helping prime-time underdogs continue to cover at a profitable clip? Below, we'll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Dolphins-Titans, including the updated odds from Sports Interaction and our predictions for this Week 14 matchup.
Dolphins vs. Titans odds, spread, over/under
All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Spread: Dolphins -13.5 (-110) | Titans +13.5 (-110)
Total: OVER 46.5 (-110) | UNDER 46.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Dolphins -800 | Titans +575
With the Dolphins owning a +117 scoring margin (32.9 ppg) in their eight wins over sub-.500 foes, a nearly two-touchdown spread in favor of the home team is justified. Being 13.5-point favorites isn't exactly uncharted waters for Mike McDaniel's squad this year, as Monday night marks the fourth time this year Miami has been at least a 13-point home favorite.
The Dolphins are 2-1 ATS in those contests, covering against the Giants (-13; 31-16) and Panthers (-14; 42-21), with their lone non-cover coming in their last home game against the Raiders (-14; 20-13).
Conversely, Monday night marks the first time the Titans are double-digit underdogs this season, with their previous highest spread coming in their Week 11 road matchup in Jacksonville (+6.5; 14-34). Will a Tennessee defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in efficiency be able to generate enough stops to stay within the 13.5-point spread?
With Miami averaging nearly 40 points per game in their eight wins against sub-.500 opponents, getting to 47 total points between both squads appears to be an attainable task. OVER bettors likely need 14-17 points from the Titans. Although Tennessee's offense has had its struggles, especially along the offensive line, they've averaged 18.2 points per game since Will Levis took over as the starting QB, a good sign for OVER bettors.
Should you bet the Dolphins against the spread?
It's never easy laying double-digits in the NFL, but we advise betting on the Dolphins against the spread at -13.5 (-110). Miami's ability to consistently exploit a leaky Tennessee pass defense could lead to the Dolphins putting up 30-plus points for a third straight week.
The Titans' 22nd-ranked pass defense just allowed two Colts' WRs, Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce, to post 100-plus receiving yards while letting Colts QB Gardner Minshew throw for 312 yards with two TDs in Week 13. Miami's elite receiving tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have to be licking their proverbial chops facing one of the league's least efficient coverage units.
To make matters worse, the Titans' front seven struggles to generate pressure, ranking 26th in pressure rate (19.4 percent). That doesn't bode well against a Dolphins offensive line that kept Tua Tagovailoa squeaky clean in Week 13, as Tagovailoa was neither sacked nor pressured. A high percentage of clean pockets for Tagovailoa spells trouble for the Titans' prospects of staying within the number.
That said, on the other side of the ball, Tennessee's ground game could have an efficient day. Although star running back Derrick Henry left this past Sunday's matchup with a head injury, he wasn't placed in the league's concussion protocol, all but confirming his availability for MNF.
While the Dolphins' pass defense just held Sam Howell, the league's passing leader, to 127 yards with a lackluster 50.5 passer rating, Miami was gashed on the ground (138 yards, 4.9 YPC, two TDs). Relying on Henry and fellow RB Tyaje Spears, who's fresh off his best rushing game as a pro (16 carries, 75 yards), could help Tennessee methodically move the ball on Miami's defense.
However, even if Tennessee can put together a strong rushing output, it won't matter much if they're playing from behind and have to resort to airing things out.
Miami's stability on both sides of the football leads to the Dolphins improving to 3-1 ATS as double-digit favorites.
Our Pick: Dolphins -13.5 (-110)
Should you bet the Dolphins vs. Titans OVER?
Miami's high-octane offense leads us to lean toward the OVER 46.5 (-110). We think Levis and company can put up 17-plus points, a number they've reached in three of six games since Levis took over QB1 duties. They'll figure to have plenty of opportunities to generate some scoring drives in garbage time, and Miami's quick-strike offense is always a plus for OVER backers.
Our Pick: OVER 46.5 (-110)
Final score prediction: Dolphins 34, Titans 17
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