Best Super Bowl 57 Bets: Expert predictions for Chiefs-Eagles spread, moneyline, over/under, MVP, props

The 2023 Super Bowl is finally upon us, with Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts leading a star-studded battle of No. 1 seeds. This should be a fantastic final game between the Chiefs and Eagles, with oddsmakers clearly viewing it as a close matchup. Considering this is our last chance to bet on NFL action for seven months, let's break down some of our favorite spread, moneyline, over/under, and prop bets for Super Bowl 57. 

The Chiefs opened as -1.5 Super Bowl favorites once they squeaked by Cincinnati and the matchup was set, but the Eagles overtook them as favorites within hours and now sit at -1.5. For all we know, the favorite and underdog could change hands again before next weekend. However, we are ready to lock in our prediction and betting advice right now.

All season, we have carefully selected bets from BetMGM that strike us as both intriguing and the best value for our money. We dive deep into split stats, betting trends, and advanced data to find angles and edges to attack. We examine the massive sample size with which we can work and consider the many variables that could play a part in either team winning or losing their bid at NFL history. 

SUPER BOWL BETTING:
Game preview | MVP | Over/Under | Market report

We hit on five major bets in both the divisional and conference championship rounds, but we hit the skids a bit last week after San Francisco lost every QB on the roster and Joseph Ossai blew it for Cincinnati. But we did hit on quite a few different bets, most notably the over/under for the Niners-Eagles game and a handful of player prop wagers. Take a look at our betting successes from the AFC and NFC championship games:

SUPER BOWL PROPS:
Eagles | Chiefs | Mahomes | Hurts | "Novelty" props | Best bets

We'll take it. We're still way over since the start of the postseason and looking to close out the 2022-23 NFL campaign with a massive bankroll. Let's keep the good times rolling and ride into the Super Bowl with the confidence of Harrison Butker from 45 yards out with the game on the line. Here are our best moneyline, spread, over/under, and prop bets for Super Bowl 57. 

All odds are courtesy of BetMGM.

JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props

Best Super Bowl Bets: Against the spread

Chiefs +0.5 vs. Eagles (1st half)

Like so many games leading up to the big game, this one seems almost too close to call. My colleagues Vinnie Iyer and Bill Bender were split down the middle, with Iyer picking the Eagles and Bender going with the Chiefs (and both predicting winning margins of four points or fewer). The remaining four veteran NFL experts who weighed in so far voted Philly 3-1. BetQL's sharp betting report has 54 percent of money on the Eagles' moneyline and a whopping 73 percent of money on Philly's spread. I'm riding with Mahomes magic and opting to bet on the Chiefs either leading or tied at halftime. 

Nobody can deny how awesome the Eagles' ground game has been this season. They just put up 148 rushing yards on the No. 1 defense in the NFL in their stomping of the 49ers. However, they also failed to establish a passing game, with Hurts connecting on just 15-of-25 attempts for 121 yards. Philly only had 148 passing yards in its divisional win over the Giants, and 207 against them in the final week of the regular season. Hurts has arguably been a shell of his earlier-season self as a passer ever since his Week 15 shoulder injury. Any kind of passing inadequacy is bad news against the best QB in the league.

It could easily be argued that this campaign has been the best of Mahomes' five-year career as a starting NFL QB. He set a new regular-season personal record for yards with an NFL-leading 5,240, and he also led the league in passing TDs (41), TD percentage (6.3), and passing yards per game (308.8). That's without speedy wideout Tyreek Hill, who just locked down his fourth All-Pro selection in his first season with Miami. Most QBs would fall off a cliff after losing such a game-changing receiver, but Mahomes got better.

So did All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce, who continues to assert himself as the best receiving tight end of all time. Over the past couple of weeks, the speed factor of wideout Marquez Valdes-Scantling and rookie back Isiah Pacheco has more than filled the void left by Hill. MVS hauled in six passes for 116 yards and a TD last week, stepping up in a major way with JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee), Kadarius Toney (ankle), and Mecole Hardman (pelvis) all banged up. Pacheco totaled 85 and 96 scrimmage yards in the divisional and conference rounds, respectively. 

Between the Chiefs' injuries on offense and the Eagles' dominating pass rush, it's easy to see why the betting public has shifted this spread in favor of Philadelphia. The Chiefs still have plenty of trump cards, though, including the best QB in the NFL, the best tight end, some of the quickest skill-position players, and, perhaps most important, one of the best coaching staffs.

Andy Reid has been here before, having now made three Super Bowls in four years and five across his 24-year career (including one in 2004 as head coach of these Eagles, a position he held for 14 years before his current 10-year stint with KC). He has two rings, one with the Chiefs in 2019 and one as an assistant with the Packers in 1997, and he has the right pieces around him. Eric Bieniemy is experienced, and Steve Spagnuolo proved last week against Cincy that the right defensive game plan can extinguish any hot streak. 

Kansas City has led each of its past five first halves by a combined total of 84-32. Mark a first-half +0.5 for the Chiefs as a stone-cold lock.

SUPER BOWL 57 EXOTIC PROP BETS:
National Anthem | Halftime | Broadcast | Coin toss, more

Best Super Bowl Bets: Moneyline

Chiefs (+105) vs. Eagles (1st half or full game)

I wasn't as confident in Kansas City's ability to stop Cincinnati's 10-game winning streak in the conference championship round. Mahomes' high-ankle sprain spooked me, and I found it difficult to envision the presumptive MVP's ability to outduel a red-hot Joe Burrow. Mahomes proceeded to throw for 326 yards and two TDs, and he busted loose for the biggest scramble of his NFL career on his final snap of the game, a rush that ultimately got KC into field goal position after Joseph Ossai hit him when he was already out of bounds. Harrison Butker nailed the game-winner from 45 yards out, and the rest was history. 

All signs point to Mahomes' ankle feeling good after that massive victory, and he and the Chiefs have momentum on their side. Philadelphia has been hot defensively and from a rushing standpoint, but it has arguably had one of the easiest paths to a Super Bowl in recent memory. All of San Francisco's QBs were hurt last week, with Brock Purdy ultimately throwing just four total passes in 22 snaps. The Niners managed just seven points, the same number the Giants managed against Philly one week prior. Over the past three weeks, the Giants and 49ers have averaged a paltry 115.6 passing yards per game against the Eagles.

Talk about poor practice leading up to the big game against Kansas City, the league's No. 1 offense in terms of scoring, passing yards, and total yardage. Having a path of below-average opponents leading up to the title game often means you have below-average preparation to face the elite squad once you get there.

It comes down to this: Mahomes, Kelce, and the K.C. coaching staff have the knowledge and experience needed to overcome the passing-challenged Eagles under second-year head coach Nick Sirianni, and Hurts doesn't yet have the passing ability to defeat Baby-GOAT Mahomes.

MORE SUPER BOWL PICKS:
DraftKings lineup | FanDuel lineup | Same Game Parlay

Best Super Bowl Bets: Over/under

Chiefs-Eagles: OVER 47.5 (-155)

Mr. Conservative has entered the chat. Hey, I want to pick you winners! I'd always rather buy three points and acquire a much greater chance at the OVER than bet more of a coin flip at -110. And we're not paying that much juice or vig. Think about it this way: At -110, we win $191 if we put $100 down and the game goes OVER 50.5. At -155, we win $191 if we put $116 down and the game finishes OVER 47.5. I don't know about you, but $16 seems like a small price to pay to wipe a full field goal off our targeted OVER.

We already told you the Chiefs ranked No. 1 in the NFL in scoring this season, averaging 29.2 points per regular-season game. They have scored exactly 50 points through two postseason games, so they have been right where we as OVER bettors want them to be. The Eagles, meanwhile, scored the third-most points this season despite Hurts' Week 15 shoulder injury sidelining him for two subsequent games. Philly has scored a whopping 69 points through two playoff games. 

Now, we're not expecting a record-breaking scoring explosion or anything. Jonathan Gannon's Philly D ranked eighth-best in points allowed this season and has surrendered seven points in consecutive games. Kansas City has looked amazing on the defensive end over the past few weeks, led by All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones and a surprisingly potent pass rush.

The Chiefs have top cornerback L'Jarius Snead in concussion protocol and veteran linebacker Willie Gay has a banged-up shoulder. If either misses the Super Bowl and Spagnuolo must put three rookies in the secondary for the majority of the game, the pass-catching nucleus of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert could feast. That would mean more drop-backs for Mahomes, which typically translates to plenty of boards on the board. Only 47 percent of sharps so far have bet the OVER, and we understand the hesitance. That's why we lowered the bar before attempting to jump it. 

Best Super Bowl Bets: Player and game props

Travis Kelce anytime TD (-125)

Kelce has cashed a ton of TD tickets for us this season, so naturally, we're letting it ride on the game's biggest stage. Mahomes and his elite tight end have reached mind-meld status, and their results over Kansas City's home stretch have been staggering. Over the past three weeks, they have connected for 27 catches on 32 targets. In the Chiefs' two playoff wins, they have connected on 21-of-25 targets for 176 yards and three TDs. Philadelphia has played tight ends well, sure, but so had Cincy before getting rolled by the All-Pro last week. Keep counting on Kelce printing our money. As far as we're concerned, he can say whatever idiotic wrestling phase he wants after the game if he cashes our prop tickets.

Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes (+130)

Two of the past three Super Bowl MVPs — and four of the past six — have been QBs, including Mahomes in the Chiefs' Super Bowl 54 win over the 49ers. Diving deeper, 11 of the past 16 winners have been signal-callers. Naturally, we're going with Mahomes to win since we're picking Kansas City to prevail, so this almost feels like an alternate way of getting plus odds on the game's outcome. We simply can't see the Chiefs winning it all and Mahomes not winning MVP with his ankle storyline, losing Hill last summer, and the offensive depth chart being so banged up. We'd have to see a defensive player score multiple TDs to even have a shot. Kelce (+1100) likely won't take home the award since Mahomes spreads the ball around too much to make his tight end this year's version of Cooper Kupp. The odds are in your favor here if you like K.C. to win. If you're picking Philly, go with Hurts +140. 

Other Chiefs-Eagles props we like: Isiah Pacheco anytime TD scorer (+140); A.J. Brown anytime TD scorer (+120); Chiefs win by 1-6 points (+290); Chiefs total OVER 23.5 points (-145); Jalen Hurts UNDER 238.5 passing yards (-110); Patrick Mahomes 300+ passing yards (-105); Mahomes 3+ passing TDs (+165)