The quarterback who didn't win the starting job at Notre Dame could be the starter for Alabama in 2023.
Will that be enough to push the Crimson Tide toward another national championship under Nick Saban? That's the question created with Tyler Buchner's transfer on Thursday. Buchner, who played in three games for Notre Dame last season, entered the portal after the Irish's spring game on Saturday.
— Tyler Buchner (@tylerbuchner) April 27, 2023
Buchner committed to Alabama after a visit this week. That's going to leave a few interesting questions for Saban heading into the summer.
Why did Tyler Buchner choose Alabama?
The familiarity factor with Notre Dame offensive coordinator Tommy Rees doesn't hurt. Buchner was a four-star recruit from La Jolla (Calif.) High School in 2021, and Rees was the primary recruiter.
Buchner did not win the Notre Dame job as a sophomore, failing to beat out Jack Coan. Last season, he won the starting job for the Irish, but he suffered a shoulder injury against Marshall and didn't play again until the 45-38 victory in the Gator Bowl against South Carolina. Buchner hit 18 of 33 passes for 273 yards, three TDs and three interceptions in a performance that showed the ups and downs in his game.
When Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman transferred to Notre Dame this offseason, the path for Buchner's transfer was open.
MORE: Buchner announces transfer to Alabama
Will Tyler Buchner start for Alabama?
This competition starts with completion percentage.
Redshirt sophomore Jalen Milroe and redshirt freshman Ty Simpson are the top two options on the roster, and both had inconsistent showings at the Alabama spring game on Saturday. Milroe (19 of 37, 245 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs) and Simpson (12 of 26, 155 yards, INT) combined for a 49.2% completion percentage.
Buchner, however, had a 56.8% completion percentage in two seasons at Notre Dame. These numbers are nowhere near the expectation at Alabama – where Bryce Young had a 65.8% percentage for his career. The quarterback that can push their percentage into the 60s without making mistakes will win the job. Buchner has eight interceptions in 67 career passing attempts, which is another no-no in a Saban offense.
"We wanted to give the quarterbacks in our program every opportunity to win the job in spring practice," coach Nick Saban said on ESPN Gameday's pre-NFL Draft show on Thursday. "We felt like we needed to add some competition to the room. Tyler was a guy who was going to be the starter last year at Notre Dame, got injured, played in the bowl game and played very well. We thought he would add a lot of competition. We think he has the right kind of character and attitude to be a positive influence on our team."
It's also going to hinge on which quarterback can make plays in the intermediate and deep passing game. According to Pro Football Focus, Buchner was 10 of 28 on passes of 10 yards or more last season, but he averaged 25.7 yards per completion on those plays. That's a boom-or-bust proposition, but no more than what Milroe or Simpson showed in the passing game. Milroe was 6 of 21 on passes of 10 yards or more and those plays averaged 17 yards per completion. Milroe did not complete a pass of 20 yards or more last season.
Alabama has a talented group of receivers that includes Ja'Corey Brooks and Jermaine Burton – the top two from last season. Milroe has had more time with those receivers, so it's on Buchner to develop a quick rapport heading into fall camp.
So why Buchner? Even in limited action last season, Buchner had twice as many big-time throws as turnover plays according to PFF. The performance against South Carolina was all over the place, but it showed Buchner could handle playing against an SEC defense.
Buchner does average 5.6 yards per carry the last two seasons, but he's not more dynamic than Milroe – who averages 7.0 yards per carry. Buchner was a non-factor in the running game in the season-opening loss to Ohio State last season with 11 carries for 18 yards. Milroe had 17 carries for 81 yards in his lone start against Texas A&M in 2022.
What's a fair expectation for Tyler Buchner?
Fair? The Crimson Tide have not gone three years without winning a championship since Saban arrived in 2007. A three-year drought is not part of "The Process."
The QB bar at Alabama is exceptionally high, with Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones and Bryce Young averaging 40 TDs and 6 INTs over the last seven seasons before all four moved on to the NFL.
Buchner should be accustomed to playing at a program with unfair expectations, but the quick nature of the transfer, the relationship with Rees and the skill set will give him a chance to win the starting job in 2023.
This feels like an open competition between Milroe and Buchner heading into the fall, and Simpson likely will be on the outside looking in unless something changes.
The winner will be tasked with managing those expectations in the SEC West. Alabama has September home games against Texas (Sept. 9) and Ole Miss (Sept. 23). The transfer portal is open until April 30, but given the Rees-Buchner dynamic it's doubtful that the Crimson Tide would add yet another quarterback to the mix.
Buchner has three years of eligibility left, but this feels more like a short-term fix for Alabama given that four-star quarterback Julian Sayin – another California quarterback from Carlsbad High School – is on the way for the class of 2024.
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Could this backfire for Alabama, Nick Saban?
Not really. This is the transfer portal era, and the good news is the other top national championship contenders have quarterback questions. Georgia and Ohio State will have first-time starters, and the likely candidates there are Carson Beck and Kyle McCord, respectively.
Alabama won a national championship with Jake Coker at quarterback in 2015, but the Florida State transfer was in his second year with the program. Saban managed the Hurts-Tagovailoa competition in 2017-18, and despite some revisionist history given Hurts' successful NFL career, it was the right decision at the time by Saban. Keep in mind that Hurts didn't start in the first game as a freshman – he replaced Blake Barnett in the first quarter of a 52-6 blowout against USC.
This isn't Saban's first time down this road, and it's not that big of a deal that Buchner didn't beat out Hartman at Notre Dame. They didn't bring on Hartman to lose that job.
The Alabama competition is about finding the most trust-worthy option, and that's what makes fall camp that much more interesting.
It won't be a surprise if Buchner turns out to be that quarterback.