With the start of college football season approaching, it’s worthwhile to see how oddsmakers are handicapping the power conferences. In our latest betting preview, we’ll be looking at the Big 12.
Last season, Baylor came out of nowhere to secure the Big 12 championship. While it came down to the last play and Baylor was inches away from losing the championship, Dave Aranda's group stayed the course and got to 12 wins. Despite being pegged as the preseason favorites in the Big 12 media poll, oddsmakers aren't quite so confident in the Bears, giving them the fourth-best odds to win the conference.
If you’re interested in getting involved in the Big 12 futures markets, Sporting News has you covered. Below, we’ll break down the top teams, a sleeper, and a long shot who could win the Big 12 championship.
MORE: Big 12 Football Predictions | Big Ten Betting Preview
Full list of 2022 Big 12 Championship odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
| School | Odds |
| Oklahoma | +200 |
| Texas | +280 |
| Oklahoma State | +550 |
| Baylor | +650 |
| TCU | +1200 |
| Kansas State | +1200 |
| Iowa State | +1600 |
| West Virginia | +3000 |
| Texas Tech | +4500 |
| Kansas | +25000 |
Big 12 Champion Betting Odds 2022: Favorites
Oklahoma Sooners +200 (implied probability 33.33 percent)
Despite a good deal of coaching and roster turnover following the departure of Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma remains the team to beat entering the 2022 season. A big reason why the Sooners are the odds-on favorites to win the Big 12 is their manageable schedule. The Sooners get Oklahoma State (-7) and Baylor (-9.5) at home while facing Texas (-2.5) on a neutral field in what projects to be their toughest three conference games.
The offense will now be run by offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby, who comes from Ole Miss but brings in one of his former QBs at UCF, Dillon Gabriel. Gabriel's best passing output (3,653 yards) came in '19 with Lebby as his OC. Gabriel's receiving corps of Marvin Mims, Theo Wease, and Drake Stoops should make for a smooth transition. While the Sooners will play at an uptempo pace on offense, Lebby will likely still rely on the running and play-action game. Last season at Ole Miss, Lebby's offense ran 56 percent of the time on early downs, and there's a chance the Sooners replicate that number. OU's backfield consists of true freshman Jovantae Barnes and junior Eric Gray, who make up a solid one-two punch. Neither is that great in pass protection, so there's a chance one of their other backs assumes a bigger role on passing downs.
The defensive side of the football is where you expect Oklahoma to improve in the near future with Brent Venables returning to Norman. However, given Venables' complex defensive scheme, there's a chance this defense takes some time to come into its own. Venables' first season at Clemson was its worst defensive year, but even in year one as OU's head coach, you have to think this defense finishes within the top 100 in expected points added (EPA) per pass allowed and passing efficiency, something it wasn't able to do last year. Given their relatively easy schedule, Oklahoma has a real chance to make it back to the conference championship game.
Texas Longhorns +280 (implied probability 26.32 percent)
Texas has a decent shot to make an appearance in the Big 12 championship game in Steve Sarkisian's second season at the helm for the Longhorns. While the Longhorns were unable to secure bowl eligibility in Sark's first season, 2022 projects to be a much more complete season for the burnt orange. While their last six losses look bad on the surface, Texas held double-digit second-half leads against Baylor, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State.
Texas' biggest offseason move (outside of signing Arch Manning) was the addition of former five-star QB Quinn Ewers. Ewers enters the QB room in a "QB competition" with Hudson Card, but from watching the spring game and knowing how long Card holds onto the football, it's only a matter of time until Ewers is announced as the starter. Ewers's ceiling is much higher than Card's, and even if Ewers turns the football over early in the season, he just needs meaningful reps at this point in his career. Ewers will have loads of talent around him to ease the transition, as RB Bijan Robinson has a legit shot to win the Heisman. Robinson's elusiveness and ability to aid in the passing game give him a chance to get to New York City in December.
Texas WR room is loaded, headlined by sophomores Xavier Worthy and Isaiah Nayor (Wyoming transfer). Jordan Whittington's an effective underneath receiving threat, while TEs Ja'Tavion Sanders and Jahleel Billingsley (Alabama transfer) will also see a respectable target share. The OL's ability to hold up in pass protection seems to be the one thing holding this offense back, and if they show improvement the sky's the limit.
The defense will need to turn things around after ranking 91st in pass efficiency and allowing big plays after missed tackles. Texas did bring in ex-TCU head coach Gary Patterson to help with the 4-2-5 defense. It's likely the Longhorns play more press-man coverage to open up their pass rush, as they were unable to create much pressure last season.
Texas has a shot to finish the season 10-2 with losses to Alabama and Oklahoma, but a 9-3 or even 8-4 finish seems most likely. A 9-3 finish could result in a trip to the Big 12 championship game, as the future remains bright in Austin.
RELATED: DeCourcy's take on Texas
Big 12 Champion Betting Odds 2022: Best sleeper
Kansas State Wildcats +1200 (implied probability 7.69 percent)
Given their current price to win the Big 12 at 12-1, Kansas State is our sleeper pick to make some noise in 2022. Oklahoma State and Baylor are the two teams priced ahead of K-State, but given the amount of production both teams must replace, the Wildcats' odds to win the conference present better value.
We get why the Bears were picked to win the conference in the preseason poll, but there's a very slim likelihood that actually transpires. Baylor has issues in its back seven on defense, and the loss of its top-two RBs will really hurt.
Kansas State's offense will be run by newly appointed OC Collin Klein, and his system will more than likely play at a faster pace. Last year, K-State was last in the FBS in plays per game (57.5). Ex-Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez will be Klein's new QB following Skylar Thompson's graduation. Martinez is an elite runner, but his accuracy and turnover issues have consistently plagued him. In the 38 games he started at Nebraska, Martinez threw 30 interceptions while fumbling the football 34 times. He also had to undergo offseason shoulder surgery after dealing with a slew of injuries last season.
The defensive front seven is K-State's best unit, highlighted by Felix Anudike-Uzomah and Eli Huggins. The secondary isn't great and ended ranking 76th in pass efficiency last year. Overall, with K-State adding more wrinkles and pre-snap motion to its offense and employing a formidable defense, the Wildcats could surprise and potentially get to eight wins.
Big 12 Champion Betting Odds 2022: Best long shot
West Virginia Mountaineers +3000 (implied probability 3.23 percent)
The Mountaineers are a long shot for a reason, but the addition of J.T. Daniels under center gives West Virginia fans some hope for a competitive Big 12 regular season. When healthy Daniels is an effective signal caller who can improve an offense that averaged just 5.4 yards per play (94th in FBS) last season. An offensive line that returns all five starters is one of West Virginia's strengths on offense, as its experience and talent figure to lead to a respectable finish in Neal Brown's fourth season.
The defense likely won't be as stout as last year, but it will still make things tough on offenses. A big reason why the Mountaineers are our long shot has to do with them getting both Baylor and Oklahoma at home. At 30-1, they could end up playing better football than their current price suggests.
Big 12 Football Betting Odds 2022: Best regular-season win total over/unders
Oklahoma OVER 9.5 wins (-120)
A 10-2 finish in Brent Venables' first season is a real possibility with a solid signal caller in Dillon Gabriel coupled with a talented WR and RB room. With the Sooners likely favored in all 12 games, they can still lose two contests and hit the OVER. Buy into Venables and the Sooners in year one.
Kansas State OVER 6.5 wins (-125)
As we previously mentioned, expect a better offensive output from the Wildcats now that Collin Klein is their new OC. While we omitted Deuce Vaughn from their team breakdown, we certainly didn't forget about the man who lead all players in WAR last season. Vaughn's big-play ability will be a much-needed asset and can take some pressure off Adrian Martinez, leading the Wildcats to seven-plus wins.
Kansas OVER 2.5 wins (-135)
The Fighting Lance Leipold's showed some grit down the stretch of last season, defeating Texas while staying competitive with Oklahoma, West Virginia, and TCU. While we didn't produce this preview early enough to give out Kansas's regular season win total OVER when it was at 1.5, we still think there's a shot the Jayhawks get to three wins.
Big 12 Football Early ATS Picks 2022
September 2: TCU -8.5 (-110) @ Colorado
Colorado is going to be one of the worst-power conference teams, and TCU is a bit undervalued in the betting markets. Sonny Dykes and the Horned Frogs likely won't do much to compete for a Big 12 championship in conference play, but they have more than enough to secure a double-digit win at Folsom Field in Week 1.
November 12th: Oklahoma -7 (-110) vs Oklahoma State
Oklahoma gets its revenge in Bedlam this season after a heartbreaking defeat in Stillwater last year. Oklahoma State has to replace a ton of production on the defensive side of the football along with DC Jim Knowles. Spencer Sanders put forth the most impressive game of his career in the Cowboys' comeback victory over Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl, but with more pressure thrown his way this season, Oklahoma notches a comfortable win over the 'Pokes in mid-November.