This time of year revolves around tradition, and few are as storied in the collegiate sports world as the historic Army vs. Navy game. Kicking off Saturday at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, the 123rd meeting between service academies marks the official close of the college football regular season and the third and final leg of the season's Commander-in-Chief Trophy series.
Let's dive right into the betting odds for this one, take a look at the all-time series, discuss the trends and current storylines, and ultimately make our pick.
Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen odds
- Spread: Navy -3 (-105) | Army +3 (-115)
- Total: Over: 32 (-110) | Under: 33 (-110)
- Moneyline: Navy -155 | Army +130
The Midshipmen (4-7) enter the weekend as slight neutral-field favorites over the Black Knights (5-6), likely due to Navy being a better defensive team against the run. Both teams operate run-first offenses, and this game historically features minimal passing plays. It's old-school football for a very old-school rivalry — one of the reasons millions of Americans will be tuning in this Saturday and the main reason why the over/under has been set so low. The total was 37 on most books last year, but some went as low as 33.5 — which at the time was noted by BetMGM as one of the lowest over/unders "ever seen in the modern age of college football." The UNDER bettors still hit, though, as Navy prevailed 17-13.
Army vs. Navy: All-time series
Navy leads the all-time series 62-53-7, most notably going on a 14-game winning streak over Army between 2002 and '15. As we noted, the Midshipmen also won last year's rivalry game 17-13 at MetLife Stadium, a significant upset considering the Black Knights were favored by 7.5 points.
Army and Navy were powerhouses of the college football landscape until the early 1960s, with the game occasionally having national championship implications (ask your dad or grandfather about Navy QB Roger Staubach, who went on to play a Hall-of-Fame career with the Cowboys). However, times have changed. Both teams have entered this rivalry game with winning records just four times over the past 60 years, most recently in 2017.
Army vs. Navy: Three trends to know
— Navy has gone 7-4 against the spread this season, while Army is 6-5 ATS. Both teams won their lone neutral-site game.
— Navy went 2-0 against ranked opponents this season but has lost two of its last three games since starting QB Tai Lavatai suffered a season-ending knee injury.
— While both teams feature strong running games, Army's has been superior. The Black Knights rank second in the nation with 304 ground yards per game compared to the Midshipmen's 239 per game. Army also averages 29.4 points per game (58th in the nation) compared to 22.4 points per game for Navy (104th).
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Army vs. Navy: Three things to watch
Does Navy have enough offense?
As noted, the Midshipmen have won just one of their past three games since losing Lavatai. However, running back Daba Fofana has kept them in close games against Cincinnati and Notre Dame and led Navy to an upset 17-14 victory over UCF on Nov. 19. The Midshipmen attempted one pass in that game, an incompletion by Xavier Arline (who had hurt his ankle against Notre Dame one game prior). Arline and fellow QB Maasai Maynor have combined to attempt 22 passes in the three games since Lavatai's injury. Fofana has amassed 247 rushing yards over Navy's past two games.
Will Army buck the trend of low-scoring Army-Navy games?
Army has enjoyed a surprisingly strong offensive season, averaging close to 30 points per game thanks to its dominant running game. Just like Navy, the Black Knights feed off the triple option. Army's offense runs through athletic QB Tyhier Tyler, who has completed just eight-of-16 passes for 301 yards while rushing for a team-high 601 yards. Tyler has recorded 14 touchdowns (12 rushing, two passing), while various other QBs and RBs have accounted for 25 TDs on the ground. The Black Knights have thrown for just five TDs all season. Ground and pound, baby!
Can Navy prevail once again despite its challenges?
Bettors sure seem to like Navy, otherwise the spread wouldn't have dipped from Army -1.5 last week to Navy -1.5 today. Still, this is basically a pick 'em line, and it's possible most books want you to put your money on the inferior offensive team. If you're going by recent history — with Navy dominating Army since the turn of the century and prevailing in a huge upset last year, then by all means, pick the Midshipmen. However, logic and reason say these defenses are similarly strong and Army's offense is considerably stronger.
Army vs. Navy prediction
With Lavatai out for Navy and Army mounting one of the best running games in its storied history, we have to lean toward the Black Knights in this one. We also like this game to go OVER, as Army has scored between 34 and 48 points in four of its past five games. It won't be a pretty game — these service rivalry games rarely are, let's face it — but it won't be boring, either. Army gets it done the old-fashioned way with a dominant run game and solid defensive front.
Prediction: Army 24, Navy 21. Army (+3) wins straight up and the game sails OVER the projected total (32).