SEC betting preview — So much upside, so much talent

2014 records: 12-2 SU, 7-1 SEC, 5-9 ATS, 7-6 O/U
Win total: 9.5 (OVER -150)
SEC odds: 9-5
National title odds: 7-1
2014 F/+: 2
Returning starters: 4 offense (not including QB), 7 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Derrick Henry, RB, 25-1; Jacob Coker, QB, 125-1; Kenyan Drake, RB, 200-1

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 19: Alabama -9.5 vs. Ole Miss
Oct. 3: Alabama -2 at Georgia
Oct. 10: Alabama -8.5 vs. Arkansas
Oct. 17: Alabama -5.5 at Texas A&M
Oct. 24: Alabama -9 vs. Tennessee
Nov. 7: Alabama -9 vs. LSU
Nov. 14: Alabama -7.5 at Mississippi State
Nov. 28: Alabama -2 at Auburn

Outlook: Doesn’t it feel like expectations are weirdly low for the Tide? Yet, weirdly low for Nick Saban’s group means a win total of 9.5, its lowest since 2008, and the third-best odds to win the national title.

One impressive Alabama streak could come to an end this year, either way. The Tide have been favored in 68 straight games and are laying points in each 2015 game as of Thursday. But with a few early sluggish efforts, those -2s at Georgia and Auburn could turn to pluses (UGA opened a pk, Auburn +3.5).

Bama lost seven starters on offense, but tends to reload instantly. It boasts a scary backfield of bruising Derrick Henry and speedster Kenyan Drake. There is uncertainty at quarterback. The front seven is among the best in the country and the secondary is pretty solid.

Must be nice to be Alabama.

MORE: Is Saban still the best coach in the country?

2014 records: 8-5 SU, 4-4 SEC, 4-9 ATS, 7-5-1 O/U
Win total: 8.5 (OVER -150)
SEC odds: 7-2
National title odds: 15-1
2014 F/+: 7
Returning starters: 4 offense (not including QB), 8 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Jeremy Johnson, QB, 25-1; Jovon Robinson, RB, 125-1; D'haquille Williams, WR, 200-1

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 19: Auburn +3.5 at LSU
Sept. 26: Auburn -9.5 vs. Mississippi State
Oct. 15: Auburn -9 at Kentucky
Oct. 24: Auburn +1 at Arkansas
Oct. 31: Auburn -7 vs. Ole Miss
Nov. 7: Auburn -2 at Texas A&M
Nov. 14: Auburn -3 vs. Georgia
Nov. 28: Auburn +2 vs. Alabama

Outlook: All aboard the Auburn hype train. Doors are closing.

The Tigers got bet down from 30-to-1 to 15-to-1 to win the national title and are the second favorite to win the SEC. The offense lost plenty but Jeremy Johnson is touted as someone who can exceed what Nick Marshall did at quarterback the last two seasons.

Will Muschamp is now the defensive coordinator after four years as Florida’s coach. Auburn’s defense gave up 5.7 yards per play last season, 87th in the nation and ahead of only South Carolina and Texas A&M in the SEC. Bettors are counting on a big step forward on defense with Muschamp there.

Auburn went 4-9 ATS last season, losing seven of its last eight vs. the number. That includes a 34-31 loss to Wisconsin as a 6-point favorite.

MORE: Williams shares touching story

2014 records: 10-3 SU, 6-2 SEC, 8-5 ATS, 9-4 O/U
Win total: 9 (OVER -130)
SEC odds: 5-1
National title odds: 20-1
2014 F/+: 4
Returning starters: 7 offense (not including QB), 5 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Nick Chubb, RB, 12-1

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 19: Georgia -13.5 vs. South Carolina
Oct. 3: Georgia +2 vs. Alabama
Oct. 10:  Georgia pk at Tennessee
Oct. 17: Georgia -8.5 vs. Missouri
Oct. 31: Georgia -10.5 vs. Florida (neutral)
Nov. 14:  Georgia +3 at Auburn
Nov. 28: Georgia -1 at Georgia Tech

Outlook: In the SEC East, Georgia has an easier road to the conference title than Alabama or Auburn. Yet, at 5-to-1, the Bulldogs are the third betting choice.

You can talk yourself into Tennessee or Missouri or Florida (ok, not yet) emerging from the East, but Georgia is your best bet. It returns one of the best running backs in the country and a line that can push anybody around. It’s played at a high level for the last decade-plus, but has come up just a game short in most cases.

Going to Tennessee and Auburn will be tough, but this is the SEC. There’s no easy road; Georgia at least has some light on its.

MORE: Clock is ticking on Georgia's QB decision

2014 records: 8-5 SU, 4-4 SEC, 8-5 ATS, 5-8 O/U
Win total: 8.5 (OVER -120)
SEC odds: 8-1
National title odds: 20-1 
2014 F/+: 22
Returning starters: 9 offense (including QB), 6 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Leonard Fournette, RB, 13-1

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 12: LSU -3 at Mississippi State
Sept. 19: LSU -3.5 vs. Auburn
Sept. 26: LSU -20 at Syracuse
Oct. 10: LSU -8 at South Carolina
Oct. 17: LSU -14 vs. Florida
Nov. 7: LSU +9 at Alabama
Nov. 14: LSU -6 vs. Arkansas
Nov. 21: LSU +4 at Ole Miss
Nov. 28: LSU -7.5 vs. Texas A&M

Outlook: Les Miles has won fewer than nine games just twice in his last 10 seasons. LSU is loaded at the skill positions as usual, and the secondary is among the nation’s best. Quarterback is where there are questions, since Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris both struggled at times last year.

LSU hasn’t gotten Auburn or Alabama-type love at most books, still floating around 20-to-1 to win the national title. The Tigers shot up from -1 to -6 against Arkansas and should be an underdog in just one game — a Nov. 7 trip to Alabama.

Last year, LSU started freshmen and sophomores almost everywhere on offense. This year, perhaps it won’t be so inconsistent. In another year, it should be downright terrifying.

MORE: Is LSU among 15 best teams since 2000?

2014 records: 9-4 SU, 5-3 SEC, 7-5-1 ATS, 2-10 O/U
Win total: 8.5 (OVER -120)
SEC odds: 8-1
National title odds: 40-1
2014 F/+: 5
Returning starters: 9 offense (not including QB), 7 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Laquon Treadwell, WR, 175-1; Robert Nkemdiche, DE, 250-1

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 19: Ole Miss +9.5 at Alabama
Oct. 3: Ole Miss -6 at Florida
Oct. 24: Ole Miss -5.5 vs. Texas A&M
Oct. 31: Ole Miss +7 at Auburn
Nov. 7: Ole Miss -3 vs. Arkansas
Nov. 21: Ole Miss -4 vs. LSU
Nov. 28: Ole Miss -1 at Mississippi State

Outlook: If you’re into defense, particularly closing speed, Ole Miss should be your favorite team in the country. And it’s got enough back to make some noise in the SEC West.

2014 was a tale of two seasons. The Rebels won and covered each of their first seven games, then went 1-5 ATS to finish, including an absolute drubbing at the hands of TCU. This season, they return most of the defense and the entire offense except a quarterback.

Ole Miss is a projected underdog in two games, and since the start of 2012, is 10-5 ATS as an underdog. The UNDER is 4-11 in those games, too.

MORE: The best Big Ten vs. SEC games of all time

2014 records: 7-6 SU, 2-6 SEC, 10-3 ATS, 6-7 O/U
Win total: 8 (OVER -120)
SEC odds: 10-1
National title odds: 40-1
2014 F/+: 9
Returning starters: 9 offense (not including QB), 6 defense

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 26: Arkansas -2 vs. Texas A&M (neutral) 
Oct. 3: Arkansas +1 at Tennessee 
Oct. 10: Arkansas +8.5 at Alabama
Oct. 24: Arkansas -1 vs. Auburn
Nov. 7: Arkansas +3 at Ole Miss
Nov. 14: Arkansas +6 at LSU

Outlook: Arkansas was unlucky last year, losing its first five SEC games while playing at a high level. The Hogs finished with the first-ever consecutive shutouts over ranked teams, blanking both Ole Miss and LSU in November. They got some hype this preseason, but bettors aren’t necessarily buying this team as a major SEC threat.

Arkansas has a clear offensive identity. It runs the ball behind a fantastic offensive line and controls the ball. Bret Bielema’s bunch knows what it wants to do and does it well. The problems this fall could come on defense, which was thin last year and must replace key pieces. The goal is to keep the ball out of everyone else’s hands.

Oh, this schedule, though. Starting on Oct. 10, Arkansas plays at Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU and hosts Auburn in a five-week stretch. In order to reach nine wins and hit the over, the Hogs must be brilliant on the road, not just good, and that’s a lot to ask of a team that doesn’t throw the ball particularly well.

MORE: Bielema has Hogs thinking they can win it all

2014 records: 7-6 SU, 3-5 SEC, 7-6 ATS, 6-6 O/U
Win total: 8 (OVER -130)
SEC odds: 10-1
National title odds: 60-1
2014 F/+: 24
Returning starters: 9 offense (including QB), 8 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Jalen Hurd, RB, 100-1; Josh Dobbs, QB, 100-1

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 12: Tennessee pk vs. Oklahoma
Sept. 26: Tennessee -3 at Florida
Oct. 3: Tennessee -1 vs. Arkansas
Oct. 10: Tennessee pk vs. Georgia
Oct. 24: Tennessee +9 at Alabama
Nov. 21: Tennessee +2.5 at Missouri
Nov. 28: Tennessee -21 vs. Vanderbilt

Outlook: Tennessee will make the College Football Playoff in the next five years. It probably won’t be in 2015.

The Vols are recruiting at an incredibly high level and have crazy upside on a roster that’s already pretty darn good. Just look at all those returning starters. The biggest problem comes up front — the offensive line was bad last year and there’s no guarantee it gets better immediately. 

The Golden Nugget took some action against Tennessee, knocking it down from a 3-point favorite to a pick'em at home against Tennessee in Week 2. That game should tell us a lot about the Vols. That home date with Georgia, currently a pick 'em, could decide the SEC East, as well.

Nine wins seems like too many for this season, but with the path Tennessee is on, that should become the floor in future years.

MORE: Meet Josh Dobbs, quarterback and engineer

2014 records: 10-3 SU, 6-2 SEC, 7-6 ATS, 6-7 O/U
Win total: 7 (OVER -125)
SEC odds: 40-1
National title odds: 100-1
2014 F/+: 13
Returning starters: 5 offense (including QB), 7 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Dak Prescott, QB, 20-1

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 12: Mississippi State +3 vs. LSU
Sept. 26: Mississippi State +9.5 at Auburn
Oct. 3: Mississippi State +6.5 at Texas A&M
Nov. 5: Mississippi State +4.5 at Missouri
Nov. 14: Mississippi State +7.5 vs. Alabama
Nov. 21: Mississippi State +11 at Arkansas
Nov. 28: Mississippi State +1 vs. Ole Miss

Outlook: Somebody has to lose in this conference. With a win total of 7, oddsmakers think it might be Mississippi State, which actually has plenty to look forward to on the field. In each game at the Golden Nugget, MSU is an underdog.

Dak Prescott is the most-proven QB in this conference, there’s some skill at back and wide receiver and the secondary is strong. The offensive and defensive lines lost a lot.

But somebody has to lose. With SEC odds at 40-to-1 and national title odds at 100-to-1, oddsmakers aren’t giving the Bulldogs much love to make noise in consecutive years in the SEC. With the perfect quarterback for their system, though, they should be competitive at the very least.

MORE: Prescott paces preseason All-SEC team

Missouri (11-3 SU, 7-1 SEC, 9-5 ATS, 7-7 O/U)

Win total: 7.5 (OVER -150)
SEC odds: 20-1
National title odds: 200-1
2014 F/+: 20
Returning starters: 7, 6, including QB

Game of the Year lines

Oct. 3 
Missouri -8.5 vs. South Carolina
Oct. 10 
Missouri -5 vs. Florida
Oct. 17 
Missouri +8.5 at Georgia
Nov. 5 
Missouri +4.5 vs. Mississippi State
Nov. 14 
Missouri -6 vs. BYU
Nov. 21 
Missouri -2.5 vs. Tennessee
Nov. 28 
Missouri +7 at Arkansas

Outlook: Stand strong, folks who have discounted Missouri in each of the last two seasons. We’re right there with you. 

The Tigers are 26-13 ATS since 2012, riding that mark to consecutive SEC East titles. A 13-5 mark ATS in the SEC is the conference’s best over the last two years.

This year, Mizzou isn’t getting much love, still sitting at 18-to-1 to win the SEC and 200-to-1 to win the national title. The offense is young and could take time to find its footing, while the secondary will be really good.

MORE: Underdog status breeds success for Pinkel, Mizzou

2014 records: 8-5 SU, 3-5 SEC, 5-8 ATS, 6-7 O/U
Win total: 8
SEC odds: 18-1
National title odds: 100-1
2014 F/+: 42
Returning starters: 8 offense (including QB), 8 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Speedy Noil, WR, 200-1; Kyle Allen, QB, 66-1; Myles Garrett, DE, 150-1

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 26: Texas A&M +2 vs. Arkansas in Dallas
Oct. 3: Texas A&M  -6.5 vs. Mississippi State
Oct. 17: Texas A&M +5.5 vs. Alabama
Oct. 24: Texas A&M +5.5 at Ole Miss
Oct. 31: Texas A&M -10 vs. South Carolina
Nov. 7: Texas A&M +2 vs. Auburn
Nov. 28: Texas A&M +7.5 at LSU

Outlook: Since Johnny Manziel’s breakout 2012 season, A&M has struggled at the bet window, posting a 10-16 ATS mark. There’s loads of upside on offense with former five-star recruit and current sophomore Kyle Allen under center; as always with the Aggies, there are plenty of guys to get the ball to.

Texas A&M’s demise last year came because of a defense that couldn’t stop the run. Its 5.2 yards per carry allowed and 5.9 yards per play allowed were both second worst in the SEC. John Chavis, the longtime Tennessee and LSU defensive coordinator, is tasked with cleaning up this mess, but it likely won’t be an immediate fix.

Oddsmakers are higher on the Aggies than some might think. Based on the Golden Nugget’s lines, A&M isn’t too far off Arkansas, Ole Miss or LSU.

MORE: Kyle Allen is the guy in College Station

2014 records: 7-5 SU, 4-4 SEC, 7-5 ATS, 8-4 O/U
Win total: 7 (OVER -130)
SEC odds: 30-1
National title odds: 100-1
2014 F/+: 32
Returning starters: 2 offense (not including QB, 6 defense)
Heisman hopefuls: Demarcus Robinson, WR, 200-1

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 26: Florida +3 vs. Tennessee
Oct. 3: Florida +6 vs. Ole Miss
Oct. 10: Florida +5 at Missouri
Oct. 17: Florida +14 at LSU
Oct. 31: Florida +10.5 vs. Georgia (neutral)
Nov. 14: Florida +2.5 at South Carolina
Nov. 28: Florida +4.5 vs. Florida State

Outlook: How low can totals in the SEC go? Florida may find out for us this season.

The Gators defense could be the best in the conference, and maybe the country, with a terrifying secondary leading the way. The offense will limit expectations in Jim McElwain’s first season, especially since the offensive line has no proven starters and can barely fill its two-deep rotation thanks to injuries, graduations and transfers.

Florida is an underdog in all seven of its games at the Golden Nugget. That doesn’t sound like Florida, and it will emerge from this hole. But in 2015, the offense just has to get out of the defense’s way to give this team hope (and keep a bunch of games UNDER). 

MORE: Palmer likes Florida's future with McElwain

2014 records: 7-6 SU, 3-5 SEC, 5-8 ATS, 6-7 O/U
Win total: 6.5 (OVER -120)
SEC odds: 30-1
National title odds: 300-1
2014 F/+: 38
Returning starters: 4, 8, not including QB
Heisman hopefuls: Pharoh Cooper, WR, 120-1

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 19: South Carolina +13.5 at Georgia
Oct. 3: South Carolina +8.5 at Missouri
Oct. 10: South Carolina +8 vs. LSU
Oct. 31: South Carolina +10 at Texas A&M
Nov. 14: South Carolina -2.5 vs. Florida
Nov. 28: South Carolina +3 vs. Clemson

Outlook: Steve Spurrier doesn’t often have bad offenses or bad teams. So last year, when the Gamecocks went 5-8 ATS and had one of the 30 worst defenses in college football, it seemed out of the ordinary.

Spurrier hired a new defensive coordinator and added a handful of JUCO transfers to shore up a defensive line that allowed 5.4 yards per carry last season, 113th in the country. 

Even with this liability of a defense, was USC really that bad? Maybe. If it got every break, 10-2. No breaks, 4-8 or 5-7. That’s life in this conference.

MORE: All-time Spurrier-coached team

2014 records: 5-7 SU, 2-6 SEC, 7-5 ATS, 8-4 O/U
Win total: 5.5 (OVER -150)
SEC odds: 100-1 
2014 F/+: 68
Returning starters: 7 offense (including QB), 7 defense

Game of the Year lines
Oct. 15: Kentucky +9 vs. Auburn
Nov. 28: Kentucky +2.5 vs. Louisville

Outlook: Kentucky’s days as an SEC doormat appear to be over. Sure, it lost its last six games last season to miss a bowl, but went 7-5 ATS. Since 2011, the Wildcats are a paltry 20-28 ATS.

There’s reason to believe things will continue to get better under Mark Stoops. UK returns a pretty good quarterback, its best running back, its best receiver and an experienced offensive line. The defense couldn’t stop the pass last year even with an excellent pass rush, most of which is gone.

The schedule is favorable, as the Wildcats should be favored in three nonconference games and against Vanderbilt. They’d need just two more wins to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2011.

2014 records: 3-9 SU, 0-8 SEC, 6-6 ATS, 5-7 O/U
Win total: 3.5 (UNDER -150)
SEC odds: 500-1
2014 F/+: 115
Returning starters: 9 offense (including QB), 9 defense

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 5: Vanderbilt +2 vs. Western Kentucky
Nov. 28: Vanderbilt +21 at Tennessee

Outlook: Vandy went 5-3 ATS in the SEC last year despite not winning a game. That’s something to feel good about, right?

This program has dropped off in a big way since James Franklin departed after the 2013 season. His teams had won nine SEC games in the previous two years. Since Franklin took this job, the Commodores are 31-20 ATS.

Vandy takes an interesting test Week 1 when high-scoring Western Kentucky comes to Nashville. The Hilltoppers opened as a short dog, but have been bet to -2 at most books.