Pac-12 betting preview — Wide-open race in perhaps nation's best conference

Last year's records: 13-2 SU, 8-1 P12, 10-5 ATS, 7-8 O/U
Pac-12 odds: 5-2
National title odds: 30-1
Win total: 9.5 (UNDER -130)
2014 F/+: 3
Returning starters: 7 offense (not including QB), 5 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Vernon Adams, QB, 38-1; Royce Freeman, RB, 50-1

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 12: Oregon +5 at Michigan State
Sept. 26 : Oregon -13 vs. Utah
Oct. 3: Oregon -14.5 at Colorado 
Oct. 17: Oregon -15 at Washington
Oct. 29: Oregon -3 at Arizona State
Nov. 14: Oregon pk at Stanford
Nov. 21: Oregon -6.5 vs. USC
Nov. 27: Oregon -25 vs. Oregon State

Outlook: Oregon lost Marcus Mariota, but will still score. The Ducks are loaded at the skill positions, and it’s no secret the offense has been among the nation’s best since Chip Kelly took over as OC in 2007. Oddsmakers have caught on, though — Oregon was 25-14 on the OVER from 2010-12 and is 14-14 in the last two years.

This year, the Ducks will need to shore up their defense before getting back into national title conversation. They’re going to compete in the Pac-12 either way.

The secondary is unproven, and the front seven is deep, but not necessarily scary. Still, this team has been good to bettors since 2010, posting the best ATS mark of any team in the country at 40-25-3.

The Ducks have been favored in 46 straight games, a streak that will likely end in East Lansing against Michigan State in two weeks.

MORE: Adams gets nod as starting QB

Last year's records: 10-3 SU, 6-3 P12, 5-8 ATS, 5-8 O/U
Pac 12 odds: 3-1
National title odds: 30-1
Win total: 9 (OVER -130)
2014 F/+: 12
Returning starters: 8 offense (not including QB), 8 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Paul Perkins, RB, 45-1; Josh Rosen, QB, 75-1

Games of the year lines
Sept. 12: UCLA -32 vs. UNLV
Sept. 19: UCLA -12.5 vs. BYU
Sept. 26: UCLA -2.5 at Arizona
Oct. 3: UCLA -6 vs. Arizona State
Oct. 15: UCLA -4.5 at Stanford
Nov. 21: UCLA -1 at Utah
Nov. 28: UCLA -4.5 at USC

Outlook: UCLA was a trendy team to back heading into last year, but ultimately let its backers down with a 5-8 ATS mark and a second-place finish in the Pac-12 South.

The Bruins return almost everyone, though, outside of quarterback Brett Hundley. He’ll be replaced by Josh Rosen, a five-star true freshman. He’s got weapons, conference-leading rusher Paul Perkins chief among them. The defense has some legitimate NFL talent and brought in Tom Bradley to be the defensive coordinator — he ran some excellent Penn State defenses as coordinator from 2000-2011 and for two decades previously as a defensive assistant.

The numbers like UCLA and project them as a top 10, or even top 5 in some cases, team. If Rosen is competent and the Bruins survive some tough road tests, they could be knocking on the College Football Playoff's door.

MORE: Four win total plays from bookmaking veteran

Last year's records: 9-4 SU, 6-3 P12, 7-6 ATS, 6-7 O/U
Pac-12 odds: 2-1
National title odds: 15-1
Win total: 9 (OVER -140)
2014 F/+: 16
Returning starters: 7 offense (including QB), 7 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Cody Kessler, QB, 14-1

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 19: USC -5 vs. Stanford
Sept. 26: USC -1 at Arizona State
Oct. 8: USC -19 vs. Washington
Oct. 17: USC -1 at Notre Dame
Oct. 24: USC -8.5 vs. Utah 
Nov. 7: USC -7.5 vs. Arizona
Nov. 13: USC -12 at Colorado
Nov. 21: USC +6.5 at Oregon
Nov. 28: USC -4.5 vs. UCLA

Outlook: The Trojans will always get love in Vegas considering the proximity and name. Has it really worked out, though? USC hasn’t had a winning record ATS since 2011 and is 35-43 against the number since the start of 2009. It hasn’t won a conference title since 2008 but is being bet like a team that has a real shot.

USC is fully recovered from NCAA sanctions and has the depth to go with it. The talent has always been there. Cody Kessler is among the nation’s best quarterbacks, too.

The schedule is brutal. Trips to Arizona State and Cal are tricky, while visits to Notre Dame and Oregon are downright scary. The Trojans host Stanford, Utah, Arizona and UCLA, but getting to 10 wins will be tough, a veteran bookmaker says.

MORE: Best Pac-12 games in 2015 headlined by USC-UCLA

Last year's records: 8-5 SU, 5-4 P12, 7-6 ATS, 3-9 O/U
Pac-12 odds: 3-1
National title odds: 40-1
Win total: 9 (OVER -120)
2014 F/+: 18
Returning starters: 9, 3, including QB
Heisman hopeful: Kevin Hogan, QB, 225-1

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 19: Stanford +5 at USC 
Oct. 3: Stanford -9.5 vs. Arizona
Oct. 15: Stanford -4.5 vs. UCLA
Nov. 14: Stanford pk vs. Oregon
Nov. 21: Stanford -11.5 vs. California
Nov. 28: Stanford -4.5 vs. Notre Dame

Outlook: We’ve reached a point where it would be weird to see Stanford struggle at all. Losing so many starters on defense will hurt, but it’s hard to imagine it not staying at a top-25 level. The floor is high.

Despite closing with three solid ATS wins last season, Stanford isn’t getting much love this summer. This for a team that’s 42-24-1 ATS since 2010, while winning 11 games in each season besides last. It’s tough to be that good and that much better than oddsmakers expect you to be at the same time.

If Kevin Hogan is healthy, he'll lead a much better offense that can offset any (probable) defensive regression.

MORE: Is Stanford on its way down?

Last year's records: 10-4 SU, 7-2 P12, 6-7 ATS, 5-9 O/U
Pac-12 odds: 18-1
National title odds: 200-1
Win total: 7.5 (OVER -135)
2014 F/+: 28
Returning starters: 6 offense (including), 6 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Anu Solomon, QB, 60-1; Scooby Wright, LB, 115-1; Nick Wilson, RB, 125-1

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 26: Arizona +2.5 vs. UCLA
Oct. 3: Arizona +9.5 at Stanford
Nov. 7: Arizona +7.5 at USC
Nov. 21: Arizona +4 at Arizona State

Outlook: Anu Solomon is back, but will be playing behind an inexperienced offensive line.

When you think Rich Rodriguez, offense comes to mind, but the Wildcats’ calling card will be its defensive front six. The secondary replaces a ton of pieces, but up front, led by linebacker Scooby Wright, they’ll be scary good.

What this team needs is consistency. Arizona covered the spread in six games in 2014, but in consecutive games just once. It never strung together a dominant stretch and faltered late, getting trounced by Oregon and losing to Boise State.

Arizona should start 3-0, then needs to go just 5-4 to reach eight wins, which seems like the floor Rich Rod has set.

Last year's records: 10-3 SU, 6-3 P12, 6-7 ATS, 7-6 O/U
Pac-12 odds: 8-1
National title odds: 200-1
Win total: 7.5 (OVER -155)
2014 F/+: 27
Returning starters: 7 offense (not including QB), 9 defense
Heisman hopefuls: DJ Foster, WR/RB, 90-1; Mike Bercovici, QB, 125-1

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 26: Arizona State +1 vs. USC
Oct. 3: Arizona State +6 at UCLA
Oct. 17: Arizona State +2 at Utah
Oct. 29: Arizona State +3 vs. Oregon
Nov. 21: Arizona State -4 vs. Arizona

Outlook: Hey, another good team. That's a bunch in this league already.

Arizona State returns 16 starters and a QB that looked good in limited action last year. Last season, it rebuilt its entire defense and still won 10 games, so Todd Graham’s program is here to stay.

The Sun Devils may fall a little short in the South this season, the second best division in the country behind the SEC West. Over the next several seasons, they'll be scary good.

Arizona State has hit the OVER at least nine times in three of its last five seasons, but just once in its last three. In 2012 and 2014, it went a modest 13-12 O/U, so be wary blindly thinking this team will score and give up a bunch of points.

Last year's records: 9-4 SU, 5-4 P12, 9-4 ATS, 4-8-1 O/U
Pac-12 odds: 50-1
National title odds: 300-1
Win total: 7.5 (UNDER -130)
2014 F/+: 29
Returning starters: 6 offense (including QB), 7 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Devontae Booker, RB, 160-1

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 26: Utah +13 at Oregon
Oct. 17: Utah -2 vs. Stanford
Oct. 24: Utah +8.5 at USC
Oct. 31: Utah -16 vs. Oregon State
Nov. 14: Utah +3 at Arizona
Nov. 21: Utah +1 vs. UCLA
Nov. 28: Utah -10.5 vs. Colorado

Outlook: Despite its strong 2014, Utah remains a longshot to win the Pac-12 at 50-to-1. Why? They’re just outside the league’s top tier, and there are too many teams to jump to get atop it.

The Utes will run the ball down everyone’s throats with Devontae Booker and most of its offensive line back. That formula, coupled with a strong defense, held most of their games UNDER the total. Utah also ranked fifth in special teams efficiency last season and returns both its kicker and punter. Great punting and a run-heavy offense are music to an UNDER bettor's ears.

A date with Michigan on Thursday will give us a good idea of where Utah is, but much of their Pac-12 slate will be decided in close games. There’s a wide range of outcomes for this team, but it has no glaring weaknesses, so eight wins is doable.

Last year's records: 5-7 SU, 3-6 P12, 7-5 ATS, 7-5 O/U
Pac-12 odds: 40-1
National title odds: 500-1
Win total: 5.5
2014 F/+: 65
Returning starters: 8 offense (including QB), 10 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Jared Goff, QB, 100-1; Daniel Lasco, RB, 250-1

Game of the Year lines
Nov. 21: Cal +11.5 at Stanford

Outlook: Cal's bump to 5.5 wins is among the largest in the nation. The Bears opened last season at 2.5, but topped that fairly easily and finished just a win shy of bowl eligibility.  They also finished with an ATS record over .500 for the first time in five years.

This year, Cal can win six games if its defense simply shows up. The offense, led by stellar quarterback Jared Goff and a deep receiving corps, will compete with the rest of the Pac-12 — and that's saying something. It's no guarantee the defense does what it needs to do.

The problem is that teams refused to run the ball against Cal, because they didn't need to. Per SB Nation, Cal's opponents ran 14 percent less on standard downs than the national average. The secondary will need to improve (118th in yards per pass attempt against at 8.4) to get this team bowling.

The road schedule is tough, but in a bit of a retooling year for the Pac-12 North, Cal could play well at home and compete. 

MORE: Biggest risers, fallers in win totals

Last year's records: 8-6 SU, 4-5 P12, 7-7 ATS, 4-10 O/U
Pac-12 odds: 200-1
National title odds: 500-1
Win total: 4.5 (OVER -160)
2014 F/+: 58
Returning starters: 4 offense (not including QB) 4 defense

Game of the Year lines
Oct. 8: Washington +19 at USC
Oct. 17: Washington +15 vs. Oregon
Nov. 27: Washington -4.5 vs. Washington State

Outlook: Bettors have been off Washington all summer. The Huskies' odds to win the Pac-12 have moved from 50-to-1 to 200-to-1, and its national title odds from 100-to-1 to 500-to-1. Despite winning eight games last season, Chris Petersen's bunch needs just five wins to go OVER its win total.

The trouble is, there are major issues at quarterback and on the offensive line, which lost its six most-experienced players. The front seven on defense has undergone a big rebuild, too.

Petersen has won fewer than 10 games just twice and never under eight. He's got some good things going, but this isn't the year. Considering the uncertainty on offense, the first few months could be tough, and that's when Washington has wins on the table.

MORE: Petersen's return to Boise State set

Last year's records: 3-9 SU, 2-7 P12, 4-8 ATS, 6-6 O/U
Pac-12 odds: 200-1
Win total: 5 (UNDER -130)
2014 F/+: 77
Returning starters: 8 offense (not including QB), 8 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Luke Falk, QB, 200-1; Dom Williams, WR, 250-1

Game of the Year lines
Nov. 27: Washington State +4.5 at Washington

Outlook: Identity is great, and Washington State has one. Mike Leach likes to throw the ball, but last season, the Cougars threw 77 percent of the time, 15 percent more than anyone in the country. That was in part because the run game was so abysmal that they had to — 1.8 yards per carry, the second-worst in the nation.

Wazzou was a victim of some bad luck last year, turning the ball over about nine more times than expected. It actually outgained about half the Pac-12 in conference play. That's built into the win total of 5, since most expect that luck to turn.

There's stability on both lines (five returning starters on the offensive one) and quarterback Luke Falk looked more than capable in Leach's system (64.2 completion percentage, 13-7 TD:INT ratio over four games). 

Last year's records: 5-7 SU, 2-7 P12, 3-9 ATS, 5-7-1 O/U
Pac-12 odds: 300-1
Win total: 4 (UNDER -135)
2014 F/+: 74
Returning starters: 6 offense (not including QB), 3 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Storm Woods, RB, 250-1

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 12: Oregon State +15.5 at Michigan
Oct. 31: Oregon State +16 at Utah
Nov. 27: Oregon State +25 at Oregon

Outlook: Year Zero for Gary Anderson could be a struggle with no real quarterback and a struggling defense that replaced nine starters. The best hope is the run game continues to excel behind a big, experienced offense line to control the ball and keep that D off the field.

Anderson, though, is 45-30 ATS since becoming a head coach at Utah State in 2009. He won 19 games at Wisconsin the last two years. Someone has to get beaten up in the Pac-12, and with this defense, it looks like it'll be Oregon State in 2015.

Last year's records: 2-10 SU, 0-9 P12, 6-6 ATS, 7-5 O/U
Pac-12 odds: 200-1
Win total: 5.5 (UNDER -150)
2014 F/+: 83
Returning starters: 6 offense (including QB), 7 defense

Game of the Year lines
Sept. 19: Colorado -7.5 vs. Colorado State (neutral site)
Oct. 3: Colorado +14.5 vs. Oregon
Nov. 13: Colorado +12 vs. USC
Nov. 28: Colorado +10.5 at Utah

Outlook: Colorado will be favored in its first four games — when was the last time that happened? Then, the Buffaloes will be underdogs in their remaining nine games (they play 13). So if they want to touch six wins, the first four wins are an absolute must.

Colorado has improved drastically in F/+ over the last two years, almost getting into the top half of the FBS despite winning just two games. With better turnover luck and a win or two in close games, the Buffs could've won four or five. The passing game has tons of upside, but the defense is undergoing a total rebuild.