Big Ten betting preview — Repeating is hard, but Ohio State's got the pieces

2014 records: 14-1 SU, 8-0 B1G, 10-5 ATS, 12-3 O/U
Big 10 odds: 1-5
National title odds: 5-2
Win total: 11.5 (UNDER -115)
2014 F/+: 1
Returning starters: 8 offense (including QB), 7 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Ezekiel Elliot, RB, 9-1; JT Barrett, QB, 15-1; Cardale Jones, QB, 19-1; Braxton Miller, WR/QB, 55-; Joey Bosa, DE, 250-1

Outlook: The Buckeyes have three of the top six betting choices for the Heisman. They’re massive favorites to win the Big 10 and the front-runner for the national title. The QB situation is clouded, but in a good way.

When Braxton Miller went down last year, Ohio State fell to 50-to-1 to win the national title at some books. But Urban Meyer has a stockpile of talent and harnesses it better than any coach in the country. You won’t see this team outside the preseason top-10 choices to win the national title again with him at the helm.

The Buckeyes are battling complacency and history more than anything. It’s hard to repeat. But if there’s any team that has a chance, it’s them. Against the spread, though, it’s almost impossible to duplicate. Last year, Florida State went 3-11 ATS while defending its national title.

MORE: Buckeyes open 10-1 to go unbeaten | QB race questions at Ohio State

2014 records: 11-2 SU, 7-1 B1G, 9-4 ATS, 10-3 O/U
Win total: 9.5 (OVER -150)
Big 10 odds: 8-1
National title odds: 18-1
2014 F/+: 11
Returning starters: 7 offense (including QB), 7 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Connor Cook, QB, 30-1

Outlook: Cook has developed into a legitimate star. The defense still has immense talent up front and will stop the run better than anyone.

The Spartans have become among the steadiest teams in the country over the last decade. They’ve won 11 games in four of the last five seasons, including at least seven in conference play. This year, what stands in their way of hitting that win total are trips to Ohio State and Michigan and a home date with Oregon on Sept. 12.

Michigan State is 40-26-1 ATS since 2010, among the best in the country. Its offensive resurgence under Cook has a lot to do with that, as it’s tough to compete with the best with shaky quarterback play.

MORE: Only one thing left to do for Connor Cook

2014 records: 11-3 SU, 7-1 B1G, 6-8 ATS, 8-5-1 O/U
Big 10 odds: 8-1
National title odds: 100-1
Win total: 9.5
2014 F/+: 25
Returning starters: 7 offense (including QB), 7 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Corey Clement, RB, 90-1

Outlook: Wisconsin has had three coaches in the last four years, yet it hasn’t mattered. Continuity has become the norm.

The Big 10 West is still the conference’s weaker link, and the Badgers are still probably the best bet to win it. A win at Nebraska should guarantee them a spot in the title game.

Clement will pick up right where Melvin Gordon (and James White, etc.) left off. The offense couldn’t move the ball through the air last season and relied so heavily on the ground that when they got behind, it was difficult to come back. See vs. Ohio State in the title game.

MORE: Clement next in line to shine at Wisconsin

2014 records: 5-7 SU, 3-5 B1G, 5-7 ATS, 5-7 O/U
Win total: 7.5 (OVER -145)
Big 10 odds: 15-1
National title odds: 100-1
2014 F/+: 54
Returning starters: 8 offense (not including QB), 7 defense

Outlook: If you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have a quarterback. But what if you have, like, six?

The biggest question surrounding the Wolverines is their situation under center. Jim Harbaugh’s hire was an absolute slam dunk, and he takes over a group that’s been recruited at a top-15 level in the last five years. The defense will be excellent, as well, and the offensive line is experienced.

It’s impossible to count anything Michigan’s done (outside recruiting) in the last five years and apply it to 2015, because Harbaugh is such a drastic upgrade. A clouded QB situation dampens their expectations a bit, but coaching at the college level is so important, and Harbaugh immediately ranks in the top 5. With Harbaugh, this team will be elite eventually.

MORE: Jim Harbaugh's excellent summer, from A-Z

2014 records: 7-6 SU, 2-6 B1G, 6-6-1 ATS, 6-7 O/U
Win total: 8.5
Big 10 odds: 25-1
National title odds: 300-1
2014 F/+: 45
Returning starters: 8 offense (including QB), 7 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Christian Hackenberg, QB, 90-1

Outlook: Penn State is nearing full recovery from NCAA sanctions levied in 2012. It takes time to gear scholarships back up, so depth could still be a slight issue, as it has been in each of the last three seasons.

In 2014, the Nittany Lions wasted one of the best defenses in the country because the offense, particularly the line, was woefully ineffective. 

Hackenberg is a potential first-round pick given his skillset, but looked brutal last year behind that line. There’s skill elsewhere on offense, particularly at tight end and in receiver Daesean Hamilton, but if the line doesn’t hold up, it won’t matter.

The schedule is fairly soft. But trips to Ohio State and Michigan State will likely be losses, and the Nits can only afford one more L to clip 8.5 wins.

Win total pick: Veteran handicapper makes call on Penn State

2014 records: 9-4 SU, 5-3 B1G, 8-4-1 ATS, 8-4-1 O/U
Win total: 8.5 (UNDER -145)
Big 10 odds: 15-1
National title odds: 100-1
2014 F/+: 30
Returning starters: 6 offense (including QB), 6 defense

Outlook: Expectations are high. Bo Pelini raised the program’s standards, then never reached them. He set the Huskers up, though, and now former Oregon State coach Mike Riley must capitalize.

The offense will be good, especially through the air. Tommy Armstrong has turned into a capable-to-strong Big Ten QB. The issues come on defense, particularly against the run (so, against Wisconsin).

The Huskers host BYU and go to Miami in the first three weeks, so we should know more about this team then. They also host Michigan State and Wisconsin (with a weak conference road slate), so the opportunity is there.

MORE: Riley sets course for Huskers' future

Minnesota: 8-5 SU, 5-3 B1G, 8-5 ATS, 6-7 O/U
Big 10 odds: 25-1
National title odds: 500-1
Win total: 6 (OVER -130)
2014 F/+: 37
Returning starters: 5, 7, including QB

Outlook: Jerry Kill has unquestionably brought this program to a new level. Now, can he get it over the hump?

Mitch Lender, a dual-threat, is among the country’s most-underrated QBs and the defense will be stout. The big questions come at the skill positions since the Gophers’ top back and receiving option are gone.

That win total of six is tricky because of the schedule. A home date with TCU Thursday could be a loss, then four of their last seven games come against projected top-40 teams, including a trip to Ohio State. But with the work Kill has done, seven wins seems reasonable.

MORE: Minnesota's no joke in 2015

Iowa: 7-6 SU, 4-4 B1G, 6-7 ATS, 8-5 O/U
Win total: 7.5 (UNDER -125)
Big 10 odds: 25-1
National title odds: 500-1
2014 F/+: 63
Returning starters: 5 offense (including QB), 7 defense

Outlook: Iowa has averaged just under seven wins over the last five seasons. Since peaking with 11 wins and an Orange Bowl in 2009, the Hawkeyes have just kinda been the same.

Kirk Ferentz’s program has one of the smallest range of outcomes in the country, as he’s brought the floor up but not raised the bar at all. The passing game, with CJ Beathard now in charge full time, could excel.

The schedule is weak and that alone could get Iowa to 7-8 wins. It misses the four best Big 10 East teams, and Pitt is the only legitimate nonconference game on the slate. Trips to Wisconsin and Nebraska are tough, but that’s pretty much it.

Maryland: 7-6 SU, 4-4 B1G, 6-7 ATS, 7-5-1 O/U
Win total: 4.5 (OVER -135)
Big 10 odds: 100-1
2014 F/+: 62
Returning starters: 6 offense (including QB), 5 defense

Outlook: 2016 and ’17 are when Maryland can make some noise. 2015 is about holding tight.

Randy Edsall got an extension this summer, which is probably good considering the Terps are just a few years away from jumping to the conference’s second tier.

This year, the secondary will be excellent, but the front seven will struggle as it changes scheme and personnel. Maryland’s best hope is that those two wash each other out. 

The conference schedule doesn’t do them any favors, and it never will in that division. But the first three nonconference games are winnable, and two more in the Big Ten isn’t inconceivable.

Rutgers: 8-5 SU, 3-5 B1G, 8-5 ATS, 7-6 O/U
Win total: 5.5 (UNDER -140)
Big 10 odds: 300-1
2014 F/+: 81
Returning starters: 6 offense (not including QB), 5 defense

Outlook: This team is crazy fast, but has a tendency to be pushed around by more physical groups. That will likely hold true in 2015. Last year, they played at a mid-tier Big Ten level for much of the season, but got romped by their four toughest opponents — the Scarlet Knights went 8-5 ATS, yet 1-3 ATS against Ohio State, Michigan State, Nebraska and Wisconsin as at least two-touchdown underdogs.

It’s tough to gauge where Rutgers is right now, because a move to the Big Ten is obviously a step up in class for it. Greg Schiano raised expectations at a place that never had any, but they’ve been tough to meet.

MORE: Rutgers giving away $100,000 for opening-game kick-return TD

2014 records: 6-7 SU, 3-5 B1G, 5-8 ATS, 7-6 O/U
Win total: 4.5 (UNDER -140)
Big 10 odds: 200-1 
2014 F/+: 67
Returning starters: 6, 7, including QB

Outlook: Illinois fired Tim Beckman last week for improper conduct — he was fudging injury reports, among other things. He was 14-23 ATS in three years at Illinois.

Beckman actually had some good things going, especially on offense and at quarterback. The defense needed improvement, but a good finish last season made the Illini bowl eligible.

Throw all that out, though. Illinois will be too tough to read early in the season, because how often does a team really lose its head coach two weeks out? And did players respond to Beckman at all given his poor treatment of players?

There are three or four wins in the first month of the season, then it gets tough. If Illinois can start fast, there’s no reason to think bowl eligibility isn’t possible. But will they? That’s tough to guarantee given the situation.

MORE: Where does Illinois go from here?

2014 records: 5-7 SU, 3-5 B1G, 5-7 ATS, 4-7-1 O/U
Win total: 6 (UNDER -120)
Big 10 odds: 60-1
2014 F/+: 71
Returning starters: 5 offense (not including QB), 9 defense

Outlook: We waited for Northwestern’s breakout for a few seasons, and it never came. Now, expectations are lower.

The offense lost much of its experience, especially under center and on the offensive line. Maybe Trevor Siemian’s departure will be a good thing, considering his struggles last year.

The secondary is excellent and the front seven stands to improve. This program is consistent if nothing else, so we kind of know what to expect moving forward. With possible issues on offense, seven wins seems tough. This could be a rebuilding year for the Wildcats.

2014 record: 4-8 SU, 1-7 B1G, 4-7-1 ATS, 6-6 O/U
Win total: 5.5
Big 10 odds: 100-1
2014 F/+: 88
Returning starters: 6 offense (including QB), 5 defense

Outlook: This is it for Kevin Wilson. It looked like Indiana was improving to the point of yearly bowl games becoming the norm, but the Hoosier have lost course. Even with star back Tevin Coleman, the offense struggled last season, and he’s now gone, as are the top three receivers and three regular offensive linemen.

The schedule isn’t too tough, but Indiana will need to make serious strides on offense to help out a decent defense — will it get them to six wins? 

2014 record: 3-9 SU, 1-7 B1G, 6-5-1 ATS, 6-6 O/U
Win total: 4
Big 10 odds: 300-1
2014 F/+: 84
Returning starters: 9, 7, including QB

Outlook: Purdue is improving under Darrell Hazell. The defense fell apart down the stretch, leading to six straight losses.

This team’s biggest strength is its offensive line, a good sign for early success. The Boilermakers will need more consistent play under center and return one of two quarterbacks who split time last season.

Hazell is molding this program slowly but surely and could make it a Big 10 West contender at some point in the next few years. But with a tough schedule — at Marshall, Wisconsin and Michigan State and vs. Virginia Tech —  bowl eligibility and this team’s best years are still a year or two away.