Big 12 betting preview — TCU gets the love, but Baylor still looms large

Record: 12-1 SU, 8-1 (B12), 11-2 ATS, 8-5 O/U
Win total: 10.5 (UNDER -140)
Big 12 title odds: 7-4
National title: 5-1
2014 F/+: 6
Returning starters: 9 offense (including QB), 5 defense
Heisman hopefuls: 

-- Trevone Boykin, QB, 7-1. The favorite to win the award, Boykin amassed 4,600 total yards (3,901 passing), 42 total touchdowns and 10 interceptions last season. Entering his fourth year as TCU's starter, the electric QB should put up huge numbers against some paper-thin Big 12 defenses.

-- Josh Doctson, WR, 175-1

-- Aaron Green, RB, 175-1

Game of the year lines

Thursday, Sept. 3
TCU -18 at Minnesota

Saturday, Oct. 3
Texas at TCU -18

Saturday, Oct. 10
TCU -9.5 at Kansas State

Saturday, Oct. 17
TCU -29 at Iowa State

Thursday, Oct. 29
West Virginia at TCU -18.5

Saturday, Nov. 7
TCU -9.5 at Oklahoma State

Saturday, Nov. 21
TCU -3.5 at Oklahoma

Friday, Nov. 27
Baylor at TCU -5

Outlook: TCU will be terrific this season. It will win a whole bunch of games. But at this point, there's not much more to say about the Horned Frogs because there's no way they'll touch that 11-2 ATS mark from last year, or even come close.

Gary Patterson's bunch had poor turnover luck in 2013 and the best turnover luck in the country last season. They had few injuries. The offense returns almost everyone, but the defense has key pieces to replace at linebacker and in the secondary.

The schedule is a tricky one, too. While the Big 12 isn't overly strong, and the Frogs get Baylor at home, they go to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Texas Tech. There's a loss or two in there.

MORE: TCU big favorite in media poll | Exiting spring with momentum

Record: 12-1 SU, 8-1 (B12), 7-5-1 ATS, 8-5 O/U
Win total: 10 (OVER -150)
Big 12 title odds: 5-2
National title: 12-1
2014 F/+: 10
Returning starters: 8 offense (not including QB), 9 defense
Heisman hopefuls: 

-- Seth Russell, QB, 30-1. RG3, Nick Florence, Bryce Petty, now Seth Russell. Art Briles' offense should continue to hum, and Russell is priced accordingly.

-- Corey Coleman, WR, 185-1

-- Shawn Oakman, DE, 200-1. He’s terrifying, and should be in the running for a number of defensive awards come December, but this is the Heisman we’re talking about.

-- Jarrett Stidham, QB, 225-1 Baylor’s offense is so good, oddsmakers have to list the backup quarterback in case he takes the job.

Game of the year lines

Saturday, Oct. 17
West Virginia at Baylor -17

Thursday, Nov. 5
Baylor -9 at Kansas State

Saturday, Nov. 14
Oklahoma at Baylor -11

Saturday, Nov. 21
Baylor -7 at Oklahoma State

Friday, Nov. 27
Baylor at TCU -5

Saturday, Dec. 5
Texas at Baylor -16.5

Outlook: Remember Nick Florence? Probably not. I didn't either. But in one year as a starter between Robert Griffin and Bryce Petty, he threw for 4,309 yards, 33 scores and 13 picks. 

Baylor brings back pretty much everyone except Petty and linebacker Bryce Hager. The Bears are loaded at the skill positions, and Briles' offense is horrifyingly good. Offensive FEI's in the last four years, starting in 2011 — 1, 1, 10, 11. Petty's loss won't be felt as much as it would be elsewhere. Florence tells that story.

The Bears have shifted the power balance in the Big 12, knocking Oklahoma and Texas from the mountain top. They've been stellar at home, going 16-1 straight-up and 13-3-1 ATS in Waco in conference games since the start of 2011. Fifteen of those 20 games have gone OVER, too. 

TCU is the talk of the Big 12, but Baylor has been here, and is here to stay. And while that trip to Fort Worth in November is scary and will decide who wins this thing, top to bottom, the Bears should be the best team in this conference.

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Record: 8-5 SU, 5-4 (B12), 5-8 ATS, 9-4 O/U
Win total: 8.5 (OVER -125)
Big 12 title odds: 4-1
National title: 30-1
2014 F/+: 19
Returning starters: 7 offense (including QB), 6 defense
Heisman hopefuls: 

-- Samaje Perine, RB, 25-1. Perine flourished after taking the starting job in Week 4. He finished the season with 1,713 yards (6.5 YPC) and 21 scores. He had 427 of those yards against Kansas, and had four games of at least 130 yards and 23 carries to close the year. He’ll touch the ball a lot this year.

-- Baker Mayfield, QB, 80-1. Mayfield will have to beat out incumbent Trevor Knight for the starting job after transferring from Texas Tech. He completed 64 percent of his passes at 6.81 yards per attempt with a 12:9 TD:INT ratio as a freshman in 2013.

Game of the year lines

Saturday, Sept. 12
Oklahoma at Tennessee pk

Saturday, Oct. 3
West Virginia at Oklahoma -10

Saturday, Oct. 10
Oklahoma -6 vs. Texas (Dallas, Texas)

Saturday, Oct. 17
Oklahoma -3 at Kansas State

Saturday, Nov. 14
Oklahoma at Baylor -11

Saturday, Nov. 21
TCU -3.5 at Oklahoma

Friday, Nov. 27
Oklahoma -3 at Oklahoma State

Outlook: The Sooners are the only team you can make an argument to group with TCU and Baylor at the top of the conference, but they're certainly the least stable of the three. That makes them an interesting study, too, after wildly underachieving in 2014 (despite entering the season as league favorite). But you can't erase 10 years of top-10 level play with one relatively poor season.

SB Nation's Bill Connelly sums it up perfectly — this team wasn't as good as we thought in 2013, and not as bad as we thought in 2014. Over those 26 games, it's a pretty boring story, but separate, it's interesting. That's college football.

Oklahoma has taken some money at the Golden Nugget, moving to a pick'em from +3 at Tennessee and from +5 to +3.5 against TCU. They did go the other way against Ok. State. That trip to Tennessee on Sept. 12 should tell us what we need to know about this team.

Perine and wideout Sterling Shepard are among the nation's best at their positions, but there's uncertainly at quarterback, and a new offensive line will be broken in. The front seven will be strong, as well.

If the Sooners can upend Tennessee, nine wins is doable. I'll feel more confident backing or fading this team after that game.

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Record: 7-6 SU, 4-5 (B12), 6-7 ATS, 7-6 O/U
Win total: 8 (UNDER -130)
Big 12 title odds: 5-1
National title: 100-1
2014 F/+: 75
Returning starters: 7 offense (including QB), 8 defense
Heisman hopefuls:

-- Mason Rudolph, QB, 90-1. The rising sophomore has made just three career starts, but led the Cowboys to wins at Oklahoma and against Washington in the Cactus Bowl. He’s got some dynamic weapons around him, too, so if this offense takes off, Rudolph will put up some monster numbers.

Game of the year lines

Saturday, Sept. 26
Oklahoma State at Texas -2.5

Saturday, Oct. 3
Kansas State at Oklahoma State -5.5

Saturday, Oct. 10
Oklahoma State at West Virginia -3

Saturday, Nov. 7
TCU -9.5 at Oklahoma State

Saturday, Nov. 21
Baylor -7 at Oklahoma State

Friday, Nov. 27
Oklahoma -3 at Oklahoma State

Outlook: Oklahoma State is an underdog in five of its six games posted by the Golden Nugget, but is still the fourth betting choice to win the conference. It's gotten some hype as a darkhorse at 5-1, but may still be a year away.

Rudolph (assuming he holds the job from senior J.W. Walsh) has some weapons. Last year, the Cowboys had six players with at least 18 catches and return all but one. The running game, woefully inefficient last year, is the offense's Achilles heel, because the line is young but fairly experienced (42 career starts).

Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma all come to Stillwater in November, so this team will play a large factor in the Big 12 race, win or lose. And don't be surprised if the Cowboys pull off an upset or two at Boone Pickens Stadium during the season's last month (although Gundy is 18-25-1 as an underdog in his career).

This team has dominated Baylor and TCU at home in the last few years and split four games with Oklahoma. Gundy has established a strong floor, and it would be a surprise to see OSU stay back around 75 in F/+ this fall.

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Record: 6-7 SU, 5-4 (B12), 7-6 ATS, 4-9 O/U
Win total: 7 (UNDER -170)
Big 12 title odds: 8-1
National title: 200-1
2014 F/+: 53
Returning starters: 7 offense (including QB), 5 defense
Heisman hopefuls

-- Jerrod Heard, QB, 105-1. Tyrone Swoopes, not listed, is the starter as of now. But oddsmakers give the former four-star, dual-threat QB a shot to win the job and do a better job under center for the Longhorns if given that chance.

-- Johnathan Gray, RB, 200-1

Game of the year lines

Saturday, Sept. 5
Texas at Notre Dame -9.5

Saturday, Sept. 26
Oklahoma State at Texas -2.5

Saturday, Oct. 3
Texas at TCU -18

Saturday, Oct. 10
Oklahoma -6 vs. Texas (Dallas, Texas)

Saturday, Oct. 24
Kansas State at Texas -4

Saturday, Dec. 5
Texas at Baylor -16.5

Outlook: In Texas, we reach our first Big 12 team in a "one unit is conference-title material and the other can barely hang" spot. The Longhorns defense will be excellent once again, especially in the secondary.

In its last 20 games as a home favorite, Texas has gone 7-12-1 to the UNDER. The Horns haven't been the complete team we once knew since 2009, really, and took 2014 to establish an identity. Charlie Strong removed a handful of players from the team and a few more left. He's crafting the program in his image, and that has resulted in some growing pains.

Still, Texas has still been recruiting at a high level in the last few years. The talent is there, and Strong did much more with much less at Louisville. Swoopes is capable, but this line stunk last year. If it doesn't take a step forward, the offense, which is in need of some identity, could struggle again while the defense cleans up its mess.

Eight wins is going to be tough — just three of its games come against teams outside the projected F/+ top 60.

MORE: Strong can't fail in time at Texas

Record: 7-6 SU, 5-4 (B12), 7-6 ATS, 4-9 O/U
Win total: 7.5 (UNDER -120)
Big 12 title odds: 14-1
National title: 300-1
2014 F/+: 40
Returning starters: 6 offense (not including QB), 8 defense

Game of the year lines

Saturday, Oct. 3
West Virginia at Oklahoma -10

Saturday, Oct. 10
Oklahoma State at West Virginia -3

Saturday, Oct. 17
West Virginia at Baylor -17

Thursday, Oct. 29
West Virginia at TCU -18.5

Saturday, Dec. 5
West Virginia at Kansas State -5

Outloook: The second feature in unit disparity. This isn't your Rich Rodriguez or "hang 70 on Clemson in the Orange Bowl" WVU team — defense will lead the way.

The Mountaineers' secondary returns its top six tacklers, and its top four, led by safeties KJ Dillon and Karl Joseph, combined for nine interceptions, 16 pass breakups and 17.5 tackles for loss. The Big 12 will have problems throwing on WVU if the line can get even a little push (114th in sack rate last year).

Coach Dana Holgorsen watched his team slip to 4-8 in 2013 after losing Geno Smith, Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey, so it could be another transition year for the offense, which lost its quarterback and two top receivers.

WVU has a brutal roadtrip in October, going to Oklahoma, Baylor and TCU in a four-game stretch lasting 26 days. Since 2011, West Virginia is 1-10 against the spread after a bye and has one before TCU.

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Record: 9-4 SU, 7-2 (B12), 8-5 ATS, 8-5 O/U 
Win total: 7 (OVER -145)
Big 12 title odds: 10-1
National title: 100-1
2014 F/+: 26
Returning starters: 6 offense (not including QB), 5 defense

Game of the year lines

Saturday, Oct. 3
Kansas State at Oklahoma State -5.5

Saturday, Oct. 10
TCU -9.5 at Kansas State

Saturday, Oct. 17
Oklahoma -3 at Kansas State

Saturday, Oct. 24
Kansas State at Texas -4

Thursday, Nov. 5
Baylor -9 at Kansas State

Friday, Nov. 27
Kansas State -24 at Kansas

Saturday, Dec. 5
West Virginia at Kansas State -5

Outlook: Gone are WR Tyler Lockett and QB Jake Waters. Back are two experienced lines, albeit the offense one stunk in 2014.

Bill Snyder has done wonders with this program, but if he's got one final elite season in him, it probably won't be in 2015. Still, you never want to bet against Snyder as an underdog — since returning in 2009, his Kansas State teams are 14-5 as a road dog and 8-4 as a home dog.

The schedule does the Wildcats favors this year. Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma all come to Manhattan. But can the offense do enough to keep up with a pretty strong defense? With a wizard like Snyder at the helm, it's always possible.

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Record: 4-8 SU, 2-7 (B12), 6-6 ATS, 6-6 O/U
Win total: 5.5 (OVER -120)
Big 12 title odds: 18-1
National title: N/A
2014 F/+: 82
Returning starters: 9 offense (including QB), 8 defense 

Outlook: Third feature in unit disparity, but on the flip side. Texas Tech's offense can hang with anyone in the country; its defense is barely FBS level. The Red Raiders were also unlucky last year (-4 in expected turnovers), as well.

Since 2011, Texas Tech is 31-18 on the OVER, 6-6 last season. Maybe books are finally catching on — they've had two totals under 60 in their last 17 games, and none under 58. 

The offense returns an experienced line, two good quarterbacks and weapons at the skill positions. But the defense, one of the 10 worst teams in the country against the run last season, needs to take a step forward to get this team bowl eligble and more importantly, over its win total of 5.5

That win total seems doable, though. Tech should cleanup against Sam Houston State, UTEP, Iowa State and Kansas in the first two months. Then they'd need to win just one other conference road game and beat Kansas State or Oklahoma State at home.

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Record: 3-9 SU, 1-8 (B12), 5-7 ATS, 4-8 O/U
Win total: 1.5 (OVER -140)
Big 12 title odds: 80-1
National title: Ha. Be serious.
2014 F/+: 99
Returning starters: 3 offense (not including QB), 3 defense

Game of the year lines

Friday, Nov. 27
Kansas State -24 at Kansas

Outlook: Oh man. Kansas is a 5-point favorite against South Dakota State in its home opener. If it wants any chance it topping its 1.5 win total, that's a must win. It's the only time the Jayhawks will be favored all season.

But the beauty of gambling is that there's a chance to make money on even the worst of teams. Last year, Kansas had a decent defense, the front seven especially, and the offense was putrid. Hey, 4-8 on the UNDER! The blueprint is the same this year, and the offense may be even worse.

Here's a trend that could apply to Kansas. Over the last 10 years, playing an underdog of at least seven points in a road conference game when the total is 46 or lower has hit at 61.4 percent. That's a lot to digest in one sentence, but it's logical, and has proved profitable. Big spreads when the game is expected to be low scoring result in underdog covers.

A sliver of hope in Lawrence, at least for bettors. Other than that, we're not counting on much over the next few years.

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Record: 2-10 SU, 0-9 (B12), 4-7-1 ATS, 5-7 O/U
Win total: 3 (OVER -150)
Big 12 title odds: 25-1
National title: N/A
2014 F/+: 92
Returning starters: 6 offense (including QB), 7 defense

Game of the year lines

Saturday, Sept. 12
Iowa -3 at Iowa State

Saturday, Oct. 17
TCU -29 at Iowa State

Outlook: This offense has some upside, with a few potential big-play receivers and a pretty decent quarterback in Sam Richardson. The defense last year got absolutely torched, allowing 5.6 yards per carry, 120th in the country.

Offensive coordinator Mark Mangino (remember him?) took this offense to a new level last season. The line is solid and returns three starters and all key backups.

The schedule is an interesting one, because if the Cyclones were to hit 4 wins and go OVER, they'd probably do it in the first month. Northern Iowa, Iowa, at Toledo and Kansas are their first four. They'll be a favorite in two of those, but are just 4-8 when laying points since 2011.

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