ACC betting preview — If Deshaun Watson is healthy...

Record: 13-1 SU, 8-0 ACC, 3-11 ATS, 6-8 O/U
Win total: 9 (OVER -140)
ACC title odds: 5-2
National title: 30-1
2014 F/+: 15
Returning starters: 4 offense (not including QB), 7 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Everett Golson, QB, 38-1.  The Notre Dame transfer hasn’t been named the starter, but he’s among the top 15 betting choices. He was often erratic at ND, showing flashes of brilliance between fits of turnovers and poor decisions.

Game of the year lines
Oct. 10
Miami at Florida State -10

Oct. 17
Louisville at Florida State -8

Oct. 24
Florida State at Ga. Tech pk

Nov. 7
Florida State at Clemson -4

Nov. 28
Florida State -2 at Florida

Outlook: Unbeatable against the spread in 2013. Terrible ATS in 2014. When the whole world knows you're good and you're a little hungover, you won't cash many tickets.

This season is a bit of a rebuilding one for the Noles, but this is Florida State we're talking about — they reload, not rebuild. Some action has come in against FSU at the Golden Nugget, as lines have moved an average of 2.8 points against them (14 points total in five games).

The Noles will be loaded at the skill positions but rolling out a new cast in both sets of trenches. Outside of 2013, FSU hasn't been in the F/+ top 10 or outside the top 20 during Jimbo Fisher's tenure, so it's reasonable to expect this team will compete in the ACC, but not for a national title. The floor is high.

MORE: Jimbo regains control when FSU takes the field

Record: 10-3 SU, 6-2 ACC, 6-7 ATS, 4-9 O/U
Win total: 9.5 (UNDER -130)
ACC title odds: 2-1
National title odds: 25-1
2014 F/+: 14
Returning starters: 7 offense (including QB), 4 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Deshaun Watson, QB, 18-1. Among the top 10 betting choices for the award, Clemson’s success this season depends entirely on the health of their dynamic quarterback. He’s the perfect choice, too — a dual-threat quarterback on a potential playoff team with a high-scoring offense. Watson had a 67.9 completion percentage with 1,466 yards and 14/2 TD/INT ratio in just four full games as a starter and four others splitting time.

Mike Williams, WR, 175-1

Game of the year lines
Sept. 17
Clemson -4.5 at Louisville

Oct. 3
Notre Dame at Clemson pk

Oct. 10
Ga. Tech at Clemson -4.5

Oct. 24
Clemson -4 at Miami

Nov. 7
Florida State at Clemson -4

Nov. 27
Clemson -2 at South Carolina

Outlook: Clemson has taken the most money on its win total of any team at William Hill — 12 percent of the books' total handle, as of last week, had been on the Tigers going OVER nine wins.

Watson broke his collarbone and hand and injured his knee last year. Without him, the offense was much less explosive. Even with him on the field, the running game was nonexistent, but along with Williams, the Tigers boast a deep receiving corps.

Arguably the best defense in the country last season has plenty of pieces to replace, especially in the front seven. But coach Dabo Swinney and Co. have recruited well enough that there should be some continuity. The offense, if Watson is healthy, should offset defensive regression. Don't expect nine of 13 Clemson games to go UNDER again, though.

MORE: Four words that could put Clemson on top in 2015

Record: 11-3 SU, 6-2 ACC, 10-4 ATS, 8-6 O/U
Win total: 7.5 (OVER -140)
ACC title odds: 9-2
National title odds: 100-1
2014 F/+: 8
Returning starters: 5 offense (including QB), 8 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Justin Thomas, QB, 80-1. Georgia Tech’s option offense is no gimmick. Thomas was at the helm and accounted for more than 2,800 total yards (1,086 rushing) and 26 scores. In an option offense, though, there are too many mouths to feed, so Thomas won’t put up 4,000 total yards, which seems like a must for Heisman-winning QBs.

Game of the year lines
Sept. 19
Ga. Tech at Notre Dame -9.5

Oct. 10
Ga. Tech at Clemson -4.5

Oct. 17
Pitt at Ga. Tech -11

Oct. 24
Florida State at Ga. Tech pk

Oct. 31
Ga. Tech -10 at Virginia

Nov. 12
Va. Tech at Ga. Tech -6

Nov. 21
Ga. Tech -3 at Miami

Nov. 27
Georgia -2 at Ga. Tech

Outlook: Georgia Tech and coach Paul Johnson don't recruit like Florida State or Clemson and run a high school offense. But last year, that offense was the best in the country in FEI, and as a team, the Yellow Jackets were among the nation’s 10 best. They haven't taken much action at the Golden Nugget, though, as several GOY lines have moved against them — at Notre Dame from +2 to +9.5 and at Miami from -6 to -3.

Thomas is just a junior, and the offensive line returns 68 career starts. Tech lost most of its skill position players, but with speed, that’s replaceable. Johnson has never needed to recruit at an extremely high level. If anything, the offense will be just as explosive, but more prone to turnovers.

The defense is what needs help. It allowed 6.2 yards per play last season, 111th in the country, and the line was 102nd in sack rate.

The Jackets' win total of 7.5 speaks to its difficult schedule — Notre Dame and Georgia in nonconference, at Clemson, Duke and Miami in ACC play.

MORE: Ranking the ACC nonconference schedules

Record: 9-4 SU, 5-3 ACC, 7-6 ATS, 5-8 O/U
Win total: 7.5 (UNDER -120)
ACC title odds: 12-1
National title odds: 300-1
2014 F/+: 23
Returning starters: 4 offense (including QB), 6 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Will Gardner, QB, 200-1. A big pocket passer in Bobby Petrino’s offense, Gardner has to work with a new cast of receivers and a retooled offensive line.

Game of the year lines
Sept. 5
Louisville vs. Auburn -11.5 (Atlanta)

Sept. 17
Clemson -4.5 at Louisville

Oct. 17
Louisville at Florida State -8

Nov. 27
Louisville -2.5 at Kentucky

Outlook: Coaching is everything in college football, and the Cardinals have a great one in Bobby Petrino — past behavior aside. In just one of his 10 seasons as a college coach, he hasn't won at least eight games.

Louisville's defense will be the best in the conference and maybe the country. The secondary will replace some pieces, but the front seven returns just about every contributor and added Devonte Fields, the 2012 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year with TCU. 

The offense has work to do, though. It replaces four linemen and its top three receivers. But Petrino's calling card has been making the most of what he has — this unit didn't suffer much of a dropoff after Teddy Bridgewater's departure.

If you believe in Petrino, 7.5 wins — even with games against Clemson and Auburn in the first three weeks — seems doable. They miss Miami, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. 

MORE: The top 25 defensive backs for 2015

Record: 7-6 SU, 3-5 ACC, 6-7 ATS, 5-7 O/U
Win total: 8 
ACC title odds: 5-1
National title odds: 100-1
2014 F/+: 33
Returning starters: 8 offense (including QB), 8 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Michael Brewer, QB, 200-1. Brewer threw 18 touchdowns and 15 picks last year in a miserable offense. It could take a step forward, but not a Heisman step.

Game of the year lines
Oct. 3
Pitt at Va. Tech -7.5

Oct. 17
Va. Tech at Miami -3

Nov. 12
Va. Tech at Ga. Tech -6

Nov. 27
Virginia Tech -5 at Virginia

Outlook: This is the lasting image of Virginia Tech's 2014.

The Hokies return a defense (7th in line yards, first in sack rate) capable of winning games on its own — essentially what they did to Ohio State last year, coupled with some timely offensive production — but as a whole, the offense let this team down.

It does return Brewer and most of its skill position players. The line lost three starters. This defense is a conference-winning defense, so if the offense can play well enough to avoid an upset — or going to OT tied 0-0 with Wake Forest — Tech could emerge from the Coastal.

MORE: Ohio Stat-Va. Tech line a gift for gamblers

Record: 8-5 SU, 3-5 ACC, 8-5 ATS, 6-7 O/U
Win total: 7.5 (UNDER -125)
ACC title odds: 20-1
National title odds: 500-1
2014 F/+: 55
Returning starters: 7 offense (including QB), 8 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Jacoby Brissett, QB, 125-1. Brissett had 2,606 yards passing and 529 yards rushing with a 23/5 TD/INT ratio. The Wolfpack took a major step forward last year and the offense (38th in FEI in 2014) is primed to take another one forward behind Brissett and this ground attack.

Game of the year lines
Nov. 27
North Carolina at NC State -1

Brissett and his supporting cast will be stellar on the ground again. That led the Wolfpack to an 8-5 record last year, with all five losses coming against teams that finished higher in F/+ — Clemson, FSU, Ga. Tech, BC and Louisville. They took care of business elsewhere.

But it's on defense, particularly in the trenches, where NC State needs help. It runs a 4-2-5, sacrificing bulk up front for speed. What kind of strides the defensive line make could determine whether the Pack are a viable threat in the ACC.

NC State should open 4-0, then hosts Louisville and goes to Virginia Tech. We'll know much more about this team midway through October, but it should still be the fourth wheel in a three-way battle for the Atlantic.

MORE: N.C. State loses top receiver

Record: 6-7 SU, 4-4 ACC, 5-7-1 ATS, 7-5-1 O/U
Win total: 6 (OVER -150)
ACC title odds: 12-1
National title odds: N/A
2014 F/+: 43
Returning starters: 8 offense (including QB), 7 defense
Heisman hopefuls: James Conner, RB, 75-1. The Erie, Pa., product rolls size, speed and tenacity into an awesome package (highlights here). Conner had 1,765 yards (5.9 per carry) and 26 scores last year. He could clip 2,000 yards, but for a running back to win the Heisman, circumstances must be perfect — in 2009, Mark Ingram won it because there wasn’t a quarterback on a Power 5 team that put up gaudy numbers.

Game of the year lines
Oct. 3
Pittsburgh at Va. Tech -7.5

Oct. 10
Virginia at Pittsburgh -7.5

Oct. 17
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech -11

Nov. 7
Notre Dame -7.5 at Pittsburgh

Outlook: Conner and his offensive line, with three starters back, will give the Panthers a top 30 offense once again and the ability to wear down almost any defense in the conference. Tyler Boyd (1,261 yards, 78 catches) gives QB Chad Voytik (61.3 completion percentage, 16/7 TD/INT) a bigtime option, but the team is still in search of some depth behind him.

Former Michigan State defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi is now in charge and brought in a strong staff with him. The secondary returns playmakers, and the only glaring weakness on this team as it stands now is the front seven. If Narduzzi — master of disruption and attack with the Spartans — can piece that unit together, the offense can do the rest.

Pitt went 1-5 in one possession games last season. If they can get back to even in that department, you can talk yourself into believing this team has a shot to take the Coastal.

MORE: Conner leads way in backfield on All-ACC team

Record: 6-7 SU, 3-5 ACC, 5-8 ATS, 4-9 O/U
Win total: 7 (UNDER -135)
ACC title odds: 12-1
National title odds: 200-1
2014 F/+: 31
Returning starters: 5 offense (including QB), 6 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Brad Kaaya, QB, 70-1.  Kaaya threw for 3,198 yards and a 26/12 TD/INT ratio at a 58.5 percent clip as a freshman last year. He’s not a threat with his legs at all, though.

Game of the year lines
Sept. 19
Nebraska pk at Miami

Oct. 1
Miami at Cincinnati -2.5

Oct. 10
Miami at Florida State -10

Oct. 17
Va. Tech at Miami -3

Oct. 24
Clemson -4 at Miami

Nov. 7
Virginia at Miami -6.5

Nov. 21
Ga. Tech -3 at Miami

Outlook: Al Golden takes a lot of flack because Miami's standards are so high, but he's actually got this program in a pretty good place. It's improved steadily in F/+ in each of the last two seasons, and without a collapse against Florida State, the three losses that followed and some poor turnover luck, the Hurricanes would have flirted with nine wins in 2014. Golden just needs to avoid these major pitfalls.

Kaaya has massive potential and should improve on a strong freshman season, but won't have Duke Johnson in the backfield with  him, and an offensive line that struggled replaces three starters.

The defense will be this team's calling card, led by a play-making secondary. The defensive front was just average last season (29th line yards, 70th sack rate), but the back line should make enough plays to keep this defense among the country's best.

If you believe in Golden — that the poor luck and collapses aren't a product of his efforts — then Miami will give the Coastal a run. But if things go wrong during a brutal October stretch (Nebraska, at Cincinnati, at FSU, Va. Tech, Clemson), Golden's days in South Beach will be numbered.

MORE: Miami's new adidas uniforms

Record: 6-7 SU, 4-4 ACC, 5-8 ATS, 5-7 O/U
Win total: 7.5 (OVER -140)
ACC title odds: 12-1
National title odds: 500-1
2014 F/+: 70
Returning starters: 10 offense (including QB), 7 defense 
Heisman hopefuls: Marquise Williams, QB, 175-1. Williams amassed almost 4,000 total yards last year (3,073 passing) with a 63.1 completion percentage and 34 total touchdowns. If he takes a step forward, he could be in the conversation, but this award usually goes to players on good teams. UNC’s defense needs some major work.

Ryan Switzer, WR, 200-1

Game of the year lines

South Carolina -3 vs. UNC (neutral site, Week 1, Westgate)

Nov. 27
UNC at NC State -1

Outlook: Every bettor, it seems, has talked himself into buying UNC at least once, and every year, they manage to win only 6-8 games in a roundabout way. Last year, the defense was horrendous, while the offense flashed signs of brilliance.

Well, if you want to talk yourself into backing the Heels in 2015, the offense returns pretty much everyone, including five offensive linemen who formed a strong unit (48th line yards, 23rd sack rate) last season. If Marquise Williams gets in a groove, it should be unstoppable.

Former Auburn coach Gene Chizik is now in charge of this defense, and if he can harness some of this talent — UNC has recruited at a high level for the last five years — it should return to league average, which should be enough with this offense.

Those are majors ifs, though. One of these years, backing UNC will pay off, but there's too much possible variation in its game to go all in.

MORE: Chizik joins UNC staff as defensive coordinator

Record: 7-6 SU, 4-4 ACC, 8-5 ATS, 5-7-1 O/U
Win total: 5.5 (OVER -105)
ACC title odds: 200-1
National title odds: N/A
2014 F/+: 36
Returning starters: 3 offense (not including QB), 6 defense
Heisman hopefuls: Jon Hillman, RB, 200-1. 

Outlook: BC had an identity under coach Steve Addazio in 2014. Run the ball, stop the run. And it worked. This group beat USC, won four road games and lost to Florida State and Clemson by a combined seven points.

2015 is a retooling year, though.

The Eagles lost mobile QB Tyler Murphy, their entire offensive line and top three receiving options. Addazio worked his way through the coaching ranks as a line coach, and he'll have his work cut out with that unit. The defense is similar — good up front, green in the secondary.

Breaking in a new quarterback and a new offensive line is a tall task. A Sept. 18 meeting with Florida State and Sept. 26 date with Northern Illinois will prove that.

MORE: Addazio gets extension

Record: 9-4 SU, 5-3 ACC, 8-4-1 ATS, 4-8 O/U
Win total: 7 (OVER -145)
ACC title odds: 50-1
National title odds: N/A
2014 F/+: 51
Returning starters: 6 offense (not including QB),  8 defense

Game of the year lines

Duke -10 at Tulane (Week 1, Westgate)

Outlook: This program is no joke. David Cutcliffe has worked magic in Durham.

But 2015 will be different. Duke replaces its quarterback and two best targets. It lost two starters from an offensive line that was among the best in the country (15th in line yards and 4th in sack rate), thanks to its quick-strike, efficient style.

The secondary is going to be tremendous again with two stellar safeties in DeVon Edwards and Jeremy Cash. Those two combined for 194 tackles, 10 sacks, nine forced fumbles, three interceptions and 16 pass breakups. When you've got two anchors like that in a bend-don't-break system, you can survive.

But with ACC title odds at 50-1, Duke doesn't figure to compete in 2015. even in the Coastal. Survive, and 2016 could be a different story.

MORE: Duke looks to build, not sustain

Record: 5-7 SU, 3-5 ACC, 7-4-1 ATS, 4-8 O/U
Win total: 4 (OVER -120)
ACC title odds: 200-1
National title odds: N/A
2014 F/+: 39
Returning starters: 6 offense (including QB), 6 defense

Game of the year lines
Sept. 5
Virginia at UCLA -17

Sept. 12
Notre Dame -11 at Virginia

Sept. 25
Boise State -8 at Virginia

Oct. 10
Virginia at Pitt -7.5

Oct. 31
Ga. Tech -10 at Virginia

Nov. 7
Virginia at Miami -8

Nov. 27
Virginia Tech -5 at Virginia

Outlook: Virginia was a top 40 team in the country last year according to efficiency metrics, yet won just five games. The offense went from terrible to average, while the defense was already good and got a lot better.

Coach Mike London has been recruiting at a high level in his five years in Charlottesville and should reap the benefits in 2015. The Hoos have a pair of capable quarterbacks, return plenty at the skill positions and have stability on both lines. Linebacker could be a concern, but the secondary should be among the best in the conference.

This schedule, though. Virginia plays UCLA, Notre Dame, Boise State outside the ACC, and including conference games, faces eight projected top-40 teams. The Cavaliers should have been better than 5-7 last year (39th in F/+), and even if they replicate 2014, bowl eligibility will be tough thanks to this slate.

MORE: Toughest nonconference schedules in the nation

Record: 3-9 SU, 1-7 ACC, 4-8 ATS, 2-9-1 O/U
Win total: 4.5
ACC title odds: 300-1
National title odds: N/A
2014 F/+: 80
Returning starters: 7 offense, 2 defense

Outlook: Syracuse has an offensive line. But nothing around it. The defense, strong in 2014, is almost entirely gone. It's always a good idea to build a team around an O-line, but an O-line can't win games by itself.

So in 2015, the Orange will be discovering themselves on offense and building a new defense. Even with Rhode Island, Central Michigan and South Florida on the nonconference slate, five wins seems like a real stretch. 

Record: 3-9 SU, 1-7 ACC, 6-6 ATS, 4-8 O/U
Win total: 3.5 (OVER -115)
ACC title odds: 300-1
National title odds: N/A
2014 F/+: 101
Returning starters: 7 offense (including QB), 7 defense

Outlook: Wake's offense wasn't just bad last year. It was historically bad. The Demon Deacons scored 178 points and never topped 24 in a single game. They averaged 1.1 yards per carry — ONE POINT ONE — dead last in the FBS and the worst in at least the last 10 years. The line was the worst in the country (128 in line yards, 123rd in sack rate) and allowed true freshman QB John Wolford to go down 55 times.

The defense, 52nd in FEI, was left to pick up the pieces, and scratched out three wins. There's no reason this unit should take any steps back if it can find a capable cornerback or two. Punter Alex Kinal, seventh in the nation in punt efficiency last year, returns, as well.

More UNDERs, anyone?