Upon glancing at the NCAA Tournament bracket the men’s basketball committee had composed on Selection Sunday night, it was easy to see that chaos would follow. But how does one anticipate such a thing? If it were predictable, it wouldn’t be chaos.
So even though it was easy to see that every team on the bracket had significant flaws, it was also true that the teams tasked with beating them were even more impaired. So how would anyone win?
Well, they play games, and someone has to advance.
So away went Kentucky, Tennessee and Auburn, and that was just the SEC. And No. 1 seed Baylor fell to a resurgent North Carolina. And soon all of them were followed by No. 1 seeds Gonzaga and Arizona.
It was a series of unexpected results – that was totally expected.
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All of the teams that survived and will travel to New Orleans had their moments of concern. Duke was down five points with 5 minutes left against Michigan State. Villanova’s offense never quite was potent enough to leave behind the Ohio State and Michigan teams the Wildcats defended so ferociously. Providence took Kansas all the way to the tape before finishing a close second. North Carolina blew a 25-point lead against Baylor but prevailed in overtime. Any one of them could have been one of the 64 victims of the tournament’s capriciousness, but all accomplished just enough to instead call themselves the 2022 Final Four.
This is how they rank in terms of ability to win the championship.
1. Duke (32-6)
Why they will win it: All along, the Blue Devils had every ingredient historically required to win an NCAA basketball championship. The idea of what wins in March is often complicated or overlooked. It was reflected in the sudden presentation of Houston, once past the Sweet 16, as the betting favorite to win the NCAA championship. What the Cougars accomplished in this tournament after losing two of their five top scorers to season-ending injury at mid-season was remarkable, but winning it all without a projected first-round pick, with a leading scorer averaging 13.8 points and shooting 33 percent on 3-pointers, with a team ranking 305th in the country in free throw rate? They were going to tough it out until toughness wasn’t enough, which turned out to be in the Elite Eight against Villanova.
Duke never has had those issues. Elite talent is the primary ingredient to an NCAA championship, and the Devils have five players who are projected as first-round picks. It’s important to have players who can break down a defense. Junior Wendell Moore can take the ball from the wing to the lane and create opportunities as well as anyone, and has averages of 13.5 points and 4.4 assists to show for it. All-American power forward Paulo Banchero, as well, excels in his ability to drive the ball into defenses. And rim protection: Go through NCAA Tournament history, and see how rarely a team with a 6-9 center who doesn’t block shots is in the middle of the lane for the eventual champion. Size matters, and Mark Williams has 16 blocks in four tournament games.
The one area Duke did not have covered, and the primary reason it lost to non-tournament teams Florida State and Virginia, was a high-end point guard. Jeremy Roach was in and out of the lineup, as Krzyzewski tried to work around his limitations as a creator. Roach still is not that. But he has become a weapon, averaging 12.8 points and 51.3 percent shooting by attacking seams in defenses created by defenses overwhelmed by dealing with such players as Moore, Banchero and AJ Griffin. When Mike Krzyzewski committed to using Roach and instructed him to concern himself first with defending the basketball, he added a definition to this team that had been lacking and allowed Moore and freshman power guard Trevor Keels to focus more on what they do best. Duke may not have exactly everything a championship team would want, but it has more of the right qualities than anyone else.
Why they won't: When the Blue Devils were playing that famous/infamous game to conclude the regular season against North Carolina, there were moments during the first half when it was almost inescapable to look at them and wonder: Who is going to beat this team? Well, before two hours had lapsed, the answer became the Tar Heels. They flipped that game by attacking with speed off the bounce and kicking out to open shooters. Duke appears to have addressed that issue and did a magnificent job of mitigating the threat posed by Arkansas guard JD Notae. But part of Duke’s advantage in that matchup was the Razorbacks lineup included fewer high-level threats beyond him. That’s why the coaches aimed so much of their D at Notae. Such teams as Villanova and North Carolina have more players who are capable of big scoring nights, which will create greater stress on a defense that still ranks only No. 45 at KenPom.com.
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2. Kansas (32-6)
Why they might win it: They have the sort of NBA-bound talent that is required to be a serious contender. Either or both of wings Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun will play in the league, and either – or both – could be a first-round pick. Agbaji has accepted the role of star from the first game this season, and Braun lately has been less likely to defer when there’s obviously an opportunity for him to score. Like many other teams in this tournament, they are not elite at the point guard position, but Dajuan Harris understands his physical limitations and generally gets the ball to where it needs to be, and the reemergence of dynamic transfer Remy Martin as a change-of-pace offensive generator is a difficult component for opposing defenses to manage. He can hurt the Jayhawks at times with his shot-selection, but he’s been much better with that during this tournament, save perhaps the first 20 minutes of the Elite Eight game against Miami. Self remains one of the most underrated defensive coaches. He is not one of those who is often cited in such conversations because his schemes aren’t flashy, and because KU is happy to operate at a quick tempo when it suits the roster or the game in question.
Why they won’t: Big man David McCormack is one of the reasons the Jayhawks are here; he was effective throughout the tournament and delivered 15 points in the Elite Eight game against Miami, along with allowing the Hurricanes’ Sam Waardenburg only three shots and serving as a big factor in Waardenburg’s foul trouble. But McCormack has been an inconsistent player, and that rarely is tolerated at the Final Four level. If he’s matched in a title game against Duke’s Mark Williams, can he be a significant factor? The point guard dynamic will be a problem until it is not. If someone such as Villanova’s Collin Gillespie puts a defensive lock on Harris, can Martin be counted upon to do more than just juice the offense? He made some defensive errors in the Miami game that ultimately were lost in the one-sided game, but there’ll be less of a disguise for any issue now. Here’s another thing: It took Kansas until the second half against Miami to make its first 3-point shot. That’s not a one-game thing. The Jayhawks are 285th in 3-point percentage, 283rd in 3-point usage. If a team can limit Agbaji’s quality 3-point looks, KU might have trouble generating the necessary offense to win a close game.
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3. North Carolina (28-9)
Why they might win it: The Tar Heels certainly have a recipe to defeat their semifinal opponent, the rival Duke Blue Devils. They went into Cameron Indoor Stadium on the final day of the regular season and, with the sort of desperation only a team on the NCAA Tournament bubble can understand, blew Duke off the court in the final 11 minutes of a 94-81 win. Their small-guard combination of Caleb Love and R.J. Davis can cause problems for the opposition because each has great quickness and is a high-end 3-point shooter. It will be a different challenge than anything Duke, for all its success, has faced in this NCAA Tournament – although obviously not a new one from what they’ve faced before. But even if the players are the same, they aren’t playing the same. There is an elevated feeling of confidence, which led Love to a career-best 30 points in the Sweet 16, and Davis to lay siege to the Duke lane and set up stretch-4 Brady Manek for open 3-pointers. In the middle of all this is long, bouncy center Armando Bacot, who excels at rebounding and finishing around the rim.
Why they won’t: It’s still not clear Carolina defends at an elite level, although they have turned in some excellent performances of late. They weren’t required to stop an exceptional offense in the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight, although they did shut down the young Baylor Bears in the second round. They do not disrupt the ball; they are 349th out of 358 teams at forcing turnovers, according to KenPom.com. It feels like a squad with bigger, more dynamic wings to attack the lane – like Duke or Kansas -- can cause problems for the Carolina perimeter. A defense that can shut down the Heels’ perimeter attack might afford to go one-on-one against Bacot in the post. He was 9-of-10 for 19 points against Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament, but the rest of the Heels were 3-of-26 from 3-point range. Carolina is talented, but who is the player that can rise above the rest when the national title is at stake?
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4. Villanova (30-7)
Why they might win it: Coach Jay Wright has called Collin Gillespie the best leader he’s had in his program, and this is the guy who coached Ryan Arcidiacono and Jalen Brunson. So maybe after he’s finished playing professional basketball, Gillespie will be President of the United States. The Wildcats are an absolute chore to guard, freeing shooters with a variety of uncommon moves and screens and also by spreading the court and empowering ballhandlers, particularly Gillespie, to back down defenders and either draw in to defenders for kick-outs to open shooters or to score on postups or turnaround jumpers. There is an astonishing degree of physical and mental toughness in this team. It was there across 80 minutes of basketball in two Big East games against Providence and especially in the Elite Eight game victory against Houston, which the officials allowed to devolve into an MMA fight. They will not back away from any competition.
Why they won’t: It starts with the injury to Justin Moore, who tore his achilles tendon late in the Elite Eight win over Houston and will not be able to compete. He averages 14.8 points on a team that is only 150th in scoring offense. The Wildcats don’t have an obvious replacement. Even at full strength, they’re just not big enough. They’ve won the title before with smaller teams than the average champ; listed at 6-9 as center for the 2018 championship Wildcats, Omari Spellman was the shortest tallest regular of any championship team in the past 30-plus years. But he was surrounded by elite talents such as Sporting News Player of the Year Jalen Brunson, future Phoenix Suns wing Mikal Bridges and current Sacramento Kings guard Donte DiVencenzo. This is not that Villanova team. There is a reason the tempo for the Wildcats has slowed to 345th in Division I, compared to 150th with the 2018 champions and 274th with the 2016 winners. Wright wants his teams to be precise on offense, because the ability to execute the constant screening and motion to generate high-quality shots for high-quality shooters is why Villanova has reached its third Final Four since 2016. But the pieces aren’t as exceptional now. The Wildcats only are 102nd in effective field goal percentage. So although they are among the better defensive teams in the country, they can’t compensate as well for the fact they are not built to protect the rim. They rank 264th in block rate; no team outside the top 200 has won the title in the past 20 years, most were in the top 50 and three (03 Syracuse, 04 UConn and 12 Kentucky) were No. 1.
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