Is it risky to suggest this could be a down year for the Big East?
Given how many times its members have surprised us, and given how the league as a whole blew away predictions of doom when it became a basketball-centric operation in 2013, it probably is.
But it could be a down year for the Big East.
MORE: Sporting News' preseason top 25
Considering the heights to which it ascended last year — two No. 1 NCAA seeds, six NCAA Tournament bids of a possible 10, the eventual national champion in Villanova, the conference could be brilliant and still represent a decline. Given the number of players who departed either by completing their careers or departing early for the NBA Draft, it seems inevitable the Big East will have to fight hard to keep itself near the forefront of the college hoops conversation.
Villanova is ranked No. 9 on Sporting News' preseason top 25, thanks in part to veterans Eric Paschall and Phil Booth, who are surrounded by a capable group of players who either tangentially contributed to last season’s championship or arrived with impeccable credentials. Beyond that, however, lies challenges at Xavier (starting a new coach), Providence (which lost several key players) and at Marquette (building a defense that can complement the Golden Eagles’ offensive magnificence).
If all the adjustments can happen quickly, the Big East has opportunities in pre-conference games to demonstrate its stature hasn't diminished. If not, though, Big East fans can remain confident their league will not be left behind by those aided by football income.
Big East predicted order of finish:
1. Villanova
2. Marquette
3. Xavier
4. Providence
5. St. John’s
6. Butler
7. Georgetown
8. Seton Hall
9. Creighton
10. DePaul
Big East champion: Villanova
It only seems the Wildcats have won every regular season title since the football folks split for the American Athletic Conference and the Big East prioritized hoops in its athletic departments. It seems that way because in the one year when they didn’t win the Big East — last year — they went on and won something bigger. Villanova’s domination of the Big East has been THE story of this college basketball decade. The league split unleashed a program that has been the nation’s best over the past five seasons. This team is not as talented as its immediate predecessor, but only a handful or two in college basketball history were. The addition of freshman point guard Jahvon Quinerly to one of the sport’s best cultures will mean Villanova remains the target for all other Big East members.
Big East X-factor: Xavier wing Naji Marshall
As a freshman on a team dominated by seniors J.P. Macura and Trevon Bluiett, who happened to play his position, Marshall was only periodically able to shine. But he showed enough of his ability in a 20-minute role — and in those moments when he was needed — to suggest he can be a star for Xavier. In a three-game February stretch of Big East games, he topped 30 minutes each time, hit the 20-point mark twice and averaged 17.3 points. He can be that guy more regularly now.
Big East sleeper team: Providence
Providence has been a perpetual sleeper since the conference reformed — and a perpetual force. The wise decision to hire Ed Cooley away from Fairfield in 2011 has led to five consecutive NCAA Tournament bids and five consecutive seasons of double-digit league wins. They’ve never won more than 11 or fewer than 10. The Friars lost some key figures from a year ago, but Cooley’s ability to get his team to play hard and play together will keep them in the upper half of the league — and maybe, eventually, to a breakthrough to league title contention.
POWER 5 PREVIEWS: B10 | B12 | P12 | ACC | SEC
Big East’s five biggest regular-season games
Marquette at St. John’s, Jan. 1. Are there still bowl games on New Year’s Day? Ah, what does it matter? This is the sort of college hoops game that will get your 2019 started right. It should be an enormous opportunity for the Red Storm to issue a statement about their intent to contend for a return to lost glory. They’ve made three NCAA Tournaments since the turn of the century, a decline that began with the needless dismissal of Fran Fraschilla two decades ago. This is their chance to change the future.
Providence at Georgetown, Jan. 12. In the bygone days of the Big East, when Rick Pitino and then Rick Barnes were coaching the Friars, this secretly was the league’s best rivalry. Yeah, St. John’s and Syracuse and Georgetown and then UConn got all the attention, but when the Friars and Hoyas got together the games were excruciatingly competitive. Both teams are going to enter this game needing this one, and it might produce an old-time classic.
Villanova at Butler, Jan. 22. There have to be a lot of places the Wildcats would rather play than Hinkle Fieldhouse. They lost their last two trips in, and the three games they won in Big East play were by an average margin of 3.7 points. Villanova’s visits to Butler tend to result in excellent, entertaining games.
Villanova at Marquette, Feb. 9. How would Marquette’s season have changed — how would college basketball’s 2017-18 season have changed — had the Golden Eagles completed their comeback attempt against the eventual NCAA champions last January? In one of the most entertaining games of last season, Marquette had the ball and a chance to tie the game inside the final minute but turned it over in an 85-82 loss. Instead of a 14-7 record with a high-quality win, Marquette was 13-8 and headed toward the NIT. Now, this group of Eagles is seen as Villanova’s primary competition in the league.
Villanova at Xavier, Feb. 24. Under Chris Mack, Xavier accomplished so much: a Big East regular-season title, a No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed, a trip to the Elite Eight and eight NCAA bids in nine years. What the Musketeers could not do: beat Villanova. They did it once in 11 tries as Big East members, and on average the games weren’t close. Now it’s Travis Steele in charge of the Xavier program. Those around the program won’t want a lot to change, but that futility against the Wildcats would be one.
Big East Player of the Year hopefuls
Shamorie Ponds, St. John’s. At a certain point last season, after Marcus LoVett had left the program and the defeats accumulated, the best apparent strategy for the Red Storm was to get the ball to Ponds and get out of his way. In 14 games between mid-January and the season’s end, he scored 25 or more points nine times, topped 30 five times and 40 points once. That he’s capable of such offensive explosions should be helpful to this team, but he should not be the only option now.
Eric Paschall, Villanova. Those who’ve watched Paschall in the past two seasons have to admire his uncommon versatility and willingness to sacrifice individual glory for the sake of the team. Is he now willing to embrace the responsibility that goes with being his team’s primary option? It seems like the sort of thing any player would want, but it doesn’t suit everyone’s personality. Paschall attempted only 7.1 shots a game last year. He was nearly twice as active as a freshman at Fordham, which shows he can manage the workload, but it is different being that guy for a poor team and being that guy for a team expected to contend for championships. Do we think he can do it? Why do you think we expect so much of the Wildcats?
Kamar Baldwin, Butler. For a team whose principal strength was employing a wide variety of players who could hurt opponents in so many different ways, Baldwin almost never came off the floor. Eight players averaged at least 15 minutes, but Baldwin was out there for 34 minutes a game, because his ball-handling, control of the offense and attacking mentality always were necessary. With Kelan Martin gone, Baldwin’s job on offense will be even more difficult. There’ll be more attention against him and fewer good choices when he gives up the ball. He shot only .331 from 3-point range last season. He’ll have to be better.
Jessie Govan, Georgetown. Govan gradually has built himself into an elite college big man. The trick now is to make those contributions count toward a winning team. That’s obviously not entirely on him; he averaged 17 points, 10 rebounds and 1.1 blocks as a junior. He also made over a third of his 3-point attempts and could become more involved as a perimeter threat.
Markus Howard, Marquette. If you come across a conversation about college basketball’s best shooters, and none of those participating brings up Howard’s name, move along until you find a group that really knows the game. Howard made 111 3-pointers as a sophomore. He made 82 — at a .547 clip — in his freshman year. If continues at last season’s rate, and maybe plays a couple more games each year either in the Big East Tournament or the NCAAs, Howard could move his way into the top 10 of the NCAA’s career 3-point leaders.
MID-MAJOR PREVIEWS: AAC | A10 | WCC
Big East coach with something to prove: Chris Mullin, St. John’s
Has it already been three full seasons since Mullin accepted the job of head coach at his alma mater? It’s hard to believe, really. That so much time has passed without our attention being captured much is indicative of a few things: how much work there was to be done, how difficult it has been to accomplish this work in a league as competitive as the Big East and how little overt achievement has occurred in that period. Mullin now has a team full of established high-major players. It’s true some established that elsewhere, but that’s fine. People have won big with transfers. This is Mullin’s opportunity, and he’ll need to establish a consistent chemistry to make it happen.