A grudge match with a title on the line highlights a stacked UFC 299 card in Miami on March 9. Sean O’Malley defends the UFC bantamweight title against Marlon Vera. The fight and event airs on ESPN+ PPV.
O’Malley’s colorful personality and hard-hitting punching ability impressed the UFC while on Dana White's Contender Series. When “The Suga Show” comes to town, fans expect laughs, trash talk and knockout wins. The UFC bantamweight champion believes the sky is the limit with the company.
"That's an important thing for a brand like the UFC to have someone like me that resonates with the younger generation because that's who's going to be consuming your content is that age group," O'Malley said via ESPN. "So, I think UFC saw that early on. I got in the UFC when I was 22, and I was resonating with those younger kids. I get older, they get older, and now they're attending my fights in Boston, they're buying the pay-per-view, they're going to be in Miami.”
Vera will have his own support team by his side, as the Ecuadorian has a large following of media and fans coming from the country to watch the fight. “Chito” beat O’Malley in 2020 and has attempted to fight for gold ever since. Finally getting an opportunity, Vera looks to go 2-0 and rip the title off O'Malley's waist.
WATCH: UFC 299: Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera 2, exclusively on ESPN+
Per Bet MGM, O'Malley is the -275 favorite, while Vera is the +220 underdog. Can the champion hold onto his title, or will Vera go 2-0 against him?
The Sporting News looks at some unique and worthy prop bets for this UFC bantamweight title fight via SuperDraft and Bet MGM.
UFC 299 prop bets predictions: Expert betting advice
1. Sean O'Malley significant strikes thrown — Over 116.5 (per SuperDraft)
Sean O’Malley loves to throw punches in bunches.
He has landed 761 significant strikes out of 1,245 attempted, landing 708 standing shots, 541 of them to the head (71%). Among active fighters, he ranks sixth in significant strike accuracy (61.2%), ninth (7.29) in significant strikes landed per minute, and fifth (3.89) in string differential. A famous moment in his career was when he landed 230 significant strikes against Kris Moutinho.
The fight between O’Malley and Vera expects to be a firefight. Win or lose, The Sporting News believes O’Malley will look to strike Vera early and often. If the fight goes the distance, which it may not, it is likely O’Malley goes over the determined significant strikes thrown count.
2. Will the fight go the distance? (No: +110 per Bet MGM)
O'Malley has won four fights via decision, his last one a controversial affair against Petr Yan in 2022. Before that was in 2018. He may not want to make it a close one against Vera following the backlash received in the Yan fight.
Vera has let five fights go the distance, doing so three times since 2021. He also has ten wins via submission and eight via knockout, making him a versatile fighter. “Chito” could be patient and strike when the moment is right, forcing O’Malley to work a different plan.
But just knowing how hard both hit makes it seem unlikely for fight fans to see them go the full five rounds.
3. How will the fight end (KO/TKO/DQ: +150 per Bet MGM)
O'Malley has 12 wins via knockout, while Vera has eight. While they both can change it up, they are dangerous strikers. Given the rivalry between the two and their love for striking when the moment is right, one shot can end the fight.
Vera compliments O'Malley by landing 4.37 significant strikes per minute. He landed 141 against Pedro Munhoz, 159 against Rob Font, and 105 against Davey Grant. Vera hasn’t earned a submission win since 2019. while O'Malley's lone win via submission was in 2015.
If the fight ends early, which The Sporting News believes it will, it will be due to the power of the punch.
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