Rivals clash in Miami when Sean O’Malley defends the UFC bantamweight title against Marlon Vera at UFC 299. The fight airs on ESPN+ PPV in the U.S.
O'Malley earned a contract following a run on Dana White's Contender Series in 2017. He is 9-1 with one no-contest in the UFC, the lone loss against Vera in 2020. “Suga” beat Aljamain Sterling via TKO to win the bantamweight belt.
Vera is 15-7 with the promotion and holds the record for the most finishes (10) in UFC bantamweight history. Losing against Jose Aldo in 2020, “Chito" was on a four-fight win streak before losing against Cory Sandhagen in March 2023. His last fight was a decision win over Pedro Munhoz in August. He looks to go 2-0 against O’Malley.
The event also features favorites Dustin Poirier, Gilbert Burns, Rafael dos Anjos, and former Bellator fighter Michael “Venom” Page.
WATCH: UFC 299: Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera 2, exclusively on ESPN+
Here are SN's official picks for every fight on the card, along with full betting odds for UFC 299, courtesy of Bet MGM.
UFC 299 expert picks and full card predictions
Sean O'Malley (c) vs. Marlon Vera 2 for the UFC bantamweight title
Per Bet MGM, Sean O'Malley is the -275 favorite, while Marlon Vera is the +220 underdog.
O'Malley is a showboating, hard-hitting fighter, landing 7.25 significant strikes per minute. He has a 61% strike accuracy mark. Vera lands 4.37 significant strikes per minute and has a 50% strike accuracy mark. He also absorbs 5.16 shots (3.51 for O’Malley).
Vera landed 18 significant strikes the last time they fought, affecting O'Malley's leg. He then won via TKO. O’Malley has since contested that loss, calling himself undefeated. Vera beat a dangerous Rob Font, knocked down Dominick Cruz, and landed 141 shots against Pedro Munhoz. “Suga” squeaked by a win against Petr Yan and beat Aljamain Sterling via power punches.
If all goes according to plan, significant strikes will be flying. If O’Malley can somehow take it to the ground and land blows, he could get the win. The same could be said if on the feet, but Vera is tricky there. He will look to hit from all angles, including O’Malley’s legs. It will be a fast fight, but The Sporting News believes the challenger will go 2-0 against the champion.
Sporting News prediction: Vera via TKO (round three)
Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint-Denis; Lightweights
Per Bet MGM, Benoit Saint-Denis is the -225 favorite, while Dustin Poirier is the +180 underdog. It is a rare five-round co-main event.
Saint-Denis is on a five-fight win streak and lands 5.53 significant strikes per minute. A 1st Marine Infantry Paratroopers Regiment in France, he also averages 4.55 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Poirier is one of the best strikers in the octagon. "The Diamond" lands 5.49 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 50%. Dustin has fought a who's who of fighters, from Jim Miller, Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje, Conor McGregor, Charles Oliveira, and Michael Chandler.
Poirier’s strength is legendary, as he has landed triple-digit shots multiple times in fights. He also sustains plenty of damage, absorbing 4.30 significant strikes that reach triple digits. Given it’s a five-round fight, Poirier can dig deep after being down on the cards and inflict pain. However, new blood has risen in the UFC, and Saint-Denis is hungry.
The Sporting News is gearing for this to be a Fight of the Night candidate and a tough one to pick. It will be a dangerous slugfest, but Saint-Denis may be able to hang late and force Poirier out of the fight.
Sporting News prediction: Saint-Denis via TKO (round four)
Kevin Holland vs. Michael "Venom" Page; Welterweights
Per Bet MGM, Kevin Holland is the -135 favorite, while Michael "Venom" Page is the +110 underdog.
Holland lands 4.39 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy of 49%. He landed 127 strikes against Jack Della Maddalena. "Trailblazer" also averages 0.78 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and is a problem on the floor, thanks to the D'Arce Choke. MVP is a former kickboxing world champion known for his time with Bellator.
Page is new to the octagon, and Holland may be the perfect opponent. He may also be the best opponent Page has fought in some time. When Holland is motivated, he is a problem. He may look to prove a point against the UFC's newest signee. On the floor, MVP has struggled. While beating Paul Daley, there wasn’t much to write home about. However, If Holland doesn't paying attention, Page can land his signature knee to the temple.
It is a fight Page needs to win. Can he get the job done? If Holland brings it to the floor, it may be game over. He still needs to look out for that knee.
Sporting News prediction: Holland via submission (round three)
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Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena; Welterweights
Per Bet MGM, Jack Della Maddalena is the -165 favorite, while Gilbert Burns is the +140 underdog.
Della Maddalena lands 7.20 significant strikes per minute, landing 105 against Kevin Holland and 82 against Bassil Hafez. He has a strike accuracy mark of 53%. Burns lands 3.36 significant strikes per minute. He also averages 1.95 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Burns lost a competitive fight against Khamzat Chimaev, won two straight, including against a retiring Jorge Masvidal, and failed to beat Belal Muhammad.
Despite Burns' recent track record, he is a massive opponent for Della Maddalena, looking to make a climb in the division. If he strikes Burns, it may not take long to hurt him. However, this contest will be a game of one avoiding the other's ability, with Della Maddalena pushing through and avoiding damage for the win.
Sporting News prediction: Della Maddalena via unanimous decision
Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong; Bantamweights
Per Bet MGM, Petr Yan is the -115 favorite, while Song Yadong is the -105 underdog.
Yan, the former UFC bantamweight champion, was undefeated before getting disqualified against Aljamain Sterling. Since then, the Russian has gone 1-3 and recently got taken down eleven times against against Merab Dvalishvili. Yan looked great against O'Malley, though the latter won via a controversial scoring decision. He lands 5.03 significant strikes per minute and has a takedown average of 1.71 per 15 minutes.
Yadong is on a two-fight win streak, lands 4.38 significant strikes per 15 minutes, and averages 0.63 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
Yadong has a clear to being a top contender. Meanwhile, Yan is on a downward spiral, and his opponent has recently outclassed the competition. Both will hit hard, but Yan can take the fight home with accurate flurries. It is a fight Yan has to win, but it might be Yadong’s time to shine.
Sporting News prediction: Yadong via TKO (round two)
Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida; Heavyweights
Per Bet MGM, Curtis Blaydes is the -105 favorite, while Jailton Almeida is the -115 underdog.
Blaydes lands 3.56 significant strikes per minute and has a takedown average of 5.93 landed per 15 minutes. Almeida lands 2.78 significant strikes per minute and averages 5.14 takedowns per 15 minutes. The latter landed six takedowns against Derrick Lewis and submitted Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Meanwhile, Blaydes once again lost momentum as he got knocked out by Sergei Pavlovich.
Blaydes is a frustrating fighter, as he should have gotten title shots multiple times by now. If not because of the stranglehold on top of the heavyweight division, Blaydes makes mistakes and loses against opponents he should beat. Almeida is 6-0 in the octagon after a run on Dana White's Contender Series. He has grappling ability, but not to the extent that Blaydes has. However, given the momentum and Almeida’s striking capabilities, the Brazilian may be able to secure the upset.
Sporting News prediction: Almeida via TKO (round two)
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Katlyn Chookagian vs. Maycee Barber; Flyweights
Per Bet MGM, Maycee Barber is the -210 favorite, while Katlyn Chookagian (now Cerminara) is the +170 underdog.
Barber lands 4.60 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 52%. She also has a takedown average of 1.14 landed per 15 minutes. “The Future” has a takedown defense of 45% and is on a five-fight win streak. Katlyn lands 4.59 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 34%. “Blonde Fighter” had a four-fight win streak snapped against Manon Fiorot, who landed 98 significant strikes.
Chookagian (Cerminara) will rely on kicks to get the job done. Barber’s ground game isn’t the best compared to the rest in the division, but her striking is on point. There are personal issues at play for Katlyn, but we will ignore that for the fighter's skills. Based on the action in the octagon, Barber plans to be the more aggressive fighter and land shots on the inside. The Sporting News gives this fight to Barber.
Sporting News prediction: Barber via split decision
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos; Lightweights
Per Bet MGM, Mateusz Gamrot is the -450 favorite, while Rafael dos Anjos is the +340 underdog.
Gamrot is coming off a knockout win against the dangerous Rafael Fiziev. He lands 2.97 significant strikes per 15 minutes and has a takedown average of 4.36 landed per 125 minutes. dos Anjos has traded wins and losses in his last few fights. The former UFC lightweight champion lands 3.52 significant strikes per minute and has a takedown average of 2.01 per 15 minutes. He was also taken down eight times against Vicente Luque.
Gamrot is the younger fighter and has not had as much damage taken to him as dos Anjos has against a Murders' Row of Benson Henderson, Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis, Donald Cerrone, Eddie Alvarez, and Tony Ferguson. dos Anjos could have the edge on the feet, but Gamrot can match it with his takedown game. One would think dos Anjos would be wise in avoiding a finish, but it doesn’t seem likely he will survive Gamrot’s overall ability.
Sporting News prediction: Gamrot via unanimous decision
Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips; Bantamweights
Per Bet MGM, Kyler Phillips is the -225 favorite, while Pedro Munhoz is the +185 underdog.
Phillips lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute with a strike accuracy mark of 3.36. He also averages 2.87 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Munhoz lands 5.45 significant strikes per minute and landed 113 against Marlon Vera. He also absorbs 6.14 significant strikes (Vera landed 141).
Munhoz loves to land clean shots, but when others land, it can become a problem for "The Young Punisher.” Phillips is a patient fighter, seen against Raoni Barcelos and Marcelo Rojo. "The Matrix" even gave Song Yadong issues. They could punch one another through all three rounds, but Phillips will have the edge in striking and pacing, forcing Munhoz to tire out.
Sporting News prediction: Phillips via unanimous decision
Ion Cuțelaba vs. Philipe Lins; Light Heavyweights
Per Bet MGM, Ion Cuțelaba is the -135 favorite, while Philipe Lins is the +115 underdog.
Cutelaba is coming off a TKO win against Tanner Boser, ending a three-fight losing streak. He lands 4.63 significant strikes per minute and has a takedown average of 4.75 per 15 minutes. Lins is on a four-fight win streak and lands 3.59 significant strikes per minute.
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What Cutelaba will we get in this fight: the one considered a masterful competitor or the one that makes mistakes in the middle of the contest? With a three-inch reach advantage, Lins should be able to take care of Cutelaba if the latter happens.
Sporting News prediction: Lins via TKO (round two)
Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk; Middleweights
Per Bet MGM, Michel Pereira is the -160 favorite, while Michal Oleksiejczuk is the +130 underdog.
Pereira lands 5.09 significant strikes per minute. He landed six in a quick win against Andre Petroski and 110 and 107 in the few fights before that. "Demolidor" also averages 1.56 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk lands 5.12 significant strikes per minute and averages 0.76 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
A sharp puncher, Pereira can last long on the feet, thanks to his durability. That may be too much for Oleksiejczuk to attempt to combat against. Oleksiejczuk hasn’t proven to be a consistent force, while Pereira is on an impressive win streak. In his return to middleweight, Pereira should take home the win.
Sporting News prediction: Pereira via unanimous decision
Robelis Despaigne vs. Josh Parisian; Heavyweights
Per Bet MGM, Robelis Despaigne is the -350 favorite, while Josh Parisian is the +250 underdog.
Despaigne is making his UFC debut, and all four of his fights have ended in the first round, with his last two not lasting ten seconds combined. Parisian hasn't won multiple fights since his days on Dana White's Contender Series in 2018. He lands 4.54 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.81.
With a seven-inch reach advantage, Despaigne has a top-notch striking pedigree. While Parisian has faced better competition, one can’t help but think the UFC has invested a lot in Despaigne. He will shine instead of falter under pressure. It may take a while to get the win, but Despaigne should get his hand raised by the end of the night.
Sporting News prediction: Despaigne via TKO (round one)
C.J. Vergara vs. Assu Almabayev; Flyweights
Per Bet MGM, Assu Almabayev is the -550 underdog, while C.J. Vergara is the +400 underdog.
Almabayev hasn't lost a fight since 2017 and last fought in August 2023, beating Ode Osbourne with 26 significant strikes. The Brave CF alum has nine wins via submission. Vergara has won two straight and lands 6.01 significant strikes per minute. The Dana White's Contender Series alum landed 109 significant strikes in his last fight.
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The fight will either be on the feet, Vergara’s specialty, or on the floor, which is Almabayev’s specialty. If Vergara gets put on the floor, Almabayev may take it. Vergara has all the skills needed to win, but Almabayev suffocating him on the floor sounds likely.
Sporting News prediction: Almabayev via submission (round two)
Joanne Wood vs. Maryna Moroz; Flyweights
Per Bet MGM, Maryna Moroz is the -225 favorite, while Joanne Wood is the +190 underdog. It is a rematch from 2015, where Moroz submitted Wood.
It has been a wild road for Wood, who missed a title opportunity to face Jennifer Maia in 2020. Including that fight, she is 2-4 in her last six, earning a much-needed win against Luana Carolina last year. Wood landed 131 significant strikes, the last time she did that since 2021. "JoJo" can land for power but has fallen victim to submissions and bad luck. She also absorbs 4.72 significant strikes landed.
Moroz is on a two-fight losing streak, getting hit with 139 significant strikes during that span. She absorbs 4.42 shots while landing 4.15 significant strikes per minute (6.93 for Wood).
Wood may be the underdog here, but she has a sharp offensive mind and uses volume to bully her opponents. Her precise striking and ground game has improved since the Moroz fight, and the latter has fought sparingly. Wood will even the score here.