MLB free agency 2020-21: Ranking the top 75 free agents this offseason
As has been said on this site and elsewhere, it’s going to be an odd offseason. With the financial uncertainties, it’s fair to expect the free-agent market to develop slowly, as owners wait to learn more about what the 2021 season could look like, in terms of length and whether fans will be allowed.
It’s possible — likely, even — that we don’t see a single free-agent deal signed for longer than five years, the result of a mix of the uncertainty and just general lack of star power at the top of the free-agent market. Maybe nothing longer than four years? It’s also reasonable to expect way more one-year deals than normal.
MORE: Seven MLB teams with reason to be aggressive this offseason
Those short-term deals are welcome to the teams, because they’re not committing lots of dollars for lots of years when they’re not sure what short-term revenues will look like. They’re going to be welcome for some players, with the idea that they’ll be back on the free-agent market next year, too, when some of those uncertainties might be more certain.
So with that in mind, our rankings will reflect that expected trend, and you’ll probably see some older players who are looking for, at most, two-year deals, higher than other free-agent rankings. For example, maybe in most years teams would consider giving a guy like James Paxton — a 32-year-old starter who had a mediocre heading-to-FA-season — a three-year deal. But if lots of teams are only looking to offer one-year deals, that bumps up a guy like 38-year-old Adam Wainwright, who was outstanding in 2020. As always, though, teams will be wary of small sample sizes, and 2020 was one giant small sample size.
But, for these rankings, there will be more weight given to what players can do in 2021-22 than what they might be able to offer, production-wise, in 2023-25.
(Ages listed as of April 1, 2021)
The top five
1. J.T. Realmuto, C, 30. Realmuto has an excellent argument for the “best catcher in baseball” title. He made the NL All-Star teams in 2018 and 2019, then went out and posted career offensive highs in rate/metric stats like on-base percentage (.349), OPS (.840), wOBA (.361) and ISO (.225). Philly fans want him back, but the inability to work out an extension while he was in a Phillies uniform shows pretty clearly that he wants to test the market.
2. George Springer, OF, 31. Springer is an outstanding defensive outfielder who has extensive experience playing both center field and right field. He brings power from the leadoff spot, and he could fit into the meat of the lineup, too. He has solid postseason bonafides (including four homers in the ALDS/ALCS this year). Let’s end with this: Yes, it’s fair to wonder whether teams will have any hesitation about signing someone who participated in the Astros cheating scandal. But Springer has shown he obviously wasn’t just a product of that help, and having a guy like him in the outfield for the next several years would be worth the early PR hit.
3. Trevor Bauer, SP, 30. Bauer was dominant in the shortened 2020 regular season, posting a 1.73 ERA, 0.795 WHIP and 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings. And that performance in the postseason — 12 strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings against the Braves — didn’t hurt his free-agent value. He’s long stated his desire to sign a series of one-year contracts once he reaches free agency, hoping to maximize his year-to-year value. And if that’s indeed what he wants to do, pretty much every team that plans to contend in 2021 will be interested in his services.
4. DJ LeMahieu, 2B, 32. LeMahieu’s two years in New York have been better than the Yankees ever could have expected when they gave him a two-year, $24 million deal in January 2019. In 195 games with the Yankees, LeMahieu has batted .336 with a .386 on-base percentage, 145 OPS+, 36 homers, 129 RBIs, 150 runs scored and an 8.7 bWAR. It’s hard to imagine the Yankees letting their most consistent player play elsewhere in 2021.
5. Marcell Ozuna, OF, 30. Ozuna took a one-year deal with the Braves for 2020, hoping for a rebound season that would lead to a lucrative multi-year deal that he couldn’t find last offseason. And Ozuna was great for Atlanta, putting himself in the middle of the NL MVP conversation with a .338 average, 1.067 OPS and 2.3 bWAR. Oh, and he led the NL in homers (18) and RBIs (56). Another factor that should make teams more willing to spend for a long-term deal: His strikeout-to-walk ratio dropped to the lowest mark of his career, 1.58 (down from 2.89 just two seasons ago), and that takes a more disciplined approach, which at least theoretically means more consistent production from a guy who has been prone to long cold/hot streaks.
6 through 10
6. Marcus Stroman, SP, 29. Stroman opted out of the 2020 season, which adds an interesting element to his free-agent equation. Still, he’s the best starting option outside of Bauer, a guy who could slot in as a No. 2 or 3 starter for a World Series contender. His 2019 season was strong, as he posted a 3.22 ERA and 3.72 FIP in a season split between the Blue Jays and Mets.
7. Nelson Cruz, DH, 40. Yes, he’s 40 and yes, he’s a DH only (so his agent would prefer a decision on the DL in the NL to happen soon). But if you’re a team looking for an instant offensive upgrade, you can’t beat Cruz. Last year for the Twins, Cruz popped 16 homers, posted a .397 on-base percentage and 169 OPS+, the last number a career high and seventh year in a row he’s been at 135 or above.
8. Liam Hendriks, RP, 32. Every team that fancies itself a contender in 2021-22 will be interested in signing Hendriks. That widespread interest likely will price out some folks, which is a shame for those fan bases. Hendriks has been arguably the best reliever in baseball over the past two years; he’s fashioned a 1.79 ERA/1.70 FIP, struck out 161 and walked just 24 in 110 1/3 innings, while converting 30 of his past 34 save opportunities.
9. Marcus Semien, SS, 30. After an incredible 2019 season resulted in a third-place finish in the AL MVP race (8.9 bWAR, 139 OPS+), Semien struggled through a 2020 season that, if we’re being honest, looked a lot like his 2015 and 2017 seasons. His OPS+ in 2020 was 91, and his 2019 season was his only one with an OPS+ in triple digits. So, it makes sense that he’d be open to possibly accepting a one-year deal (staying with Oakland?) to re-establish value and re-enter the market next year, when he’d still be a candidate for a lucrative multiyear deal at 31.
10. Didi Gregorius, SS, 31. Gregorius, like Ozuna, took a one-year deal hoping to re-establish value and, like Ozuna, he did exactly that. Though the Phillies struggled as a team, Gregorius was really good as the squad’s shortstop, finishing with a career-best .339 on-base percentage, an .827 OPS, 10 homers and 40 RBIs while playing all 60 games. He’s earned a multiyear deal.
11 through 20
11. Michael Brantley, OF/DH, 33. He’ll still be batting .285 with a .315 average with RISP when he’s 43, so why not sign him now?
12. Kevin Gausman, SP, 30. He was better than you probably realized in 2020, finally harnessing that vast potential. There’s a reason he was one of only six players to receive a qualifying offer.
13. Justin Turner, 3B, 36. Still productive, and regardless how selfish he was in the moments after winning a title, he’ll have offers. Would be surprised if he left L.A., though.
14. Yadier Molina, C, 38. He’s still a force behind the plate, and he’s smart with the bat. He won’t catch 125 games next year, but how many catchers will?
15. Trevor Rosenthal, RP, 30. Rescued his career with Kansas City last year, then threw 10 shutout innings with 17 strikeouts after his trade to San Diego. Still brings the heat.
16. Brad Hand, RP, 31. He’s had postseason issues, but Hand was 16-for-16 in save opportunities and had a 1.37 FIP in 2020 for Cleveland.
17. Kolten Wong, 2B, 30. He’s an outstanding defensive second baseman and he gets on base regularly, posting a .358 on-base percentage the past two years. Not much power, but he would be a great back-end-of-the-lineup addition to most contenders.
18. Masahiro Tanaka, SP, 32. Allowed more homers (9) than walks (8) in 2020, which is interesting. He’s not going to be anyone’s ace, but a solid mid-rotation guy.
19. Charlie Morton, SP, 37. Postseason Charlie > Regular-season Charlie
20. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF, 30. Small sample size in 2020, sure, but that .364 on-base percentage was a career-best, a nice complement to his career-low strikeout percentage (22.1 percent). And, as always, his defense is stellar.
21 through 30
21. Jake Odorizzi, SP, 31. The 2020 season was a lost one for Odorizzi, but teams would be smart to take a low-risk chance that he’ll be back to his typical, solid 30-start self the next few years.
22. Trevor May, RP, 31. So many strikeouts. May punched out 14.7 batters per nine innings this season — 38 in 23 1/3 innings — and his walk rate dipped, too, from 3.6 in 2019 to 2.7.
23. Joc Pederson, OF, 28. Lots of power, lots of strikeouts.
24. Taijuan Walker, SP, 28. Still young, coming off arguably his best season. Good combo.
25. Jurickson Profar, UTIL, 28. Feels like he was a top prospect 15 years ago, doesn’t it? He can play multiple positions (well enough) and he can hit a homer or steal a base.
26. Garrett Richards, SP, 32. Injuries have impacted his career greatly, but he’s healthy and was a big part of the Padres staff in 2020.
27. Adam Wainwright, SP, 39. Father Time hasn’t punched Wainwright’s time card just yet. Waino had a 3.15 ERA in 10 starts for the Cardinals in 2020, and though most expect him to return to St. Louis, he’d make for a good 4/5 starter for a team needing a veteran, reliable arm.
28. Tommy La Stella, UTIL, 32. He’s always been a solid on-base hitter, but he’s added pop at the plate the past two years.
29. James McCann, C, 30. He’s not J.T. Realmuto, but McCann is a viable starting option for teams looking for experience and a bit of power at the plate.
30. James Paxton, SP, 32. The 2020 season was a bit of a nightmare; Paxton only made five starts, and posted career-worsts in ERA (6.64), FIP (4.37), H/9 (10.2) and HR/9 (1.8). Feels like a prime one-year candidate, doesn’t he?
31 through 40
31. Mark Melancon, RP, 36
32. Robbie Ray, SP, 29. Not-so-fun fact: Ray led the NL with 31 walks, despite starting only seven games for the Diamondbacks and pitching for the AL’s Blue Jays all of September. Still, he misses bats (11.1 K/9 career) and has a lot of upside at only 29.
33. Alex Colome, RP, 32
34. Andrelton Simmons, SS, 31
35. Alex Wood, RP, 30. Sure looked good out of the bullpen in the postseason for the Dodgers, didn’t he? Some teams will look at him as a starter, others as a reliever.
36. Jose Quintana, SP, 32
37. Drew Smyly, SP, 31
38. Blake Treinen, RP, 32
39. Mike Minor, SP, 33
40. Cesar Hernandez, 2B, 30
41 through 50
41. Carlos Santana, 1B, 34
42. Jeremy Jeffress, RP, 33. He was a savior for the Cubs in 2020, after a disastrous 2019 for the Brewers in 2020.
43. J.A. Happ, SP, 38
44. Shane Greene, RP, 32
45. Kirby Yates, RP, 34
46. Jonathan Schoop, 2B, 29
47. Brett Gardner, OF, 37
48. Jake McGee, RP, 34
49. Martin Perez, SP, 29
50. Yoenis Cespedes, OF, 35. Basically two years away from regular action, sure, but he’d make a nice gamble for some team on a non-guaranteed contract, wouldn’t he?
51 through 60
51. Chris Archer, SP, 32. He’ll be coming off a long IL stint, but seems like a good candidate for a year-and-a-club-option deal.
52. Greg Holland, RP, 35
53. Robbie Grossman, OF, 31
54. Enrique Hernandez, UTIL, 29. He’s been a huge part of LA’s success the past few years, but that .270 on-base percentage and 83 OPS+ in 2020 wasn’t great.
55. Keone Kela, RP, 27
56. Pedro Baez, RP, 33
57. Jon Lester, SP, 37
58. Brad Miller, UTIL, 31
59. Rich Hill, SP, 41
60. Mike Fiers, SP, 35
61 through 70
61. Corey Kluber, SP, 34.
62. Adam Eaton, OF, 32
63. Mike Leake, SP, 33
64. Tyler Chatwood, SP, 31. Solid bounce-back season in 2020, but still won't get anything near the three-year, $38 million deal the Cubs gave him in 2017.
65. Anthony DeSclafani, SP, 30
66. Cole Hamels, SP, 37
67. Marwin Gonzalez, UTIL, 32
68. Jake Arrieta, SP, 35
69. Jake Lamb, 3B, 30. Lamb was solid for the A's, but it's been a few years since he's hit ilke a starting MLB third baseman. Still, only 30.
70. Dee Strange-Gordon, 2B, 32
71 through 75
71. Wilson Ramos, C, 33. Long one of MLB's best-hitting catchers, his numbers took a big dip in 2020 and the Mets declined his $10 million option.
72. Mitch Moreland, 1B, 35
73. Darren O’Day, RP, 38
74. Kevin Pillar, OF, 32
75. Michael Wacha, SP, 29. His one-year FA deal with the Mets didn't work out in 2020, but maybe his next one will. Still just 29 and had a career-best 9.8 K/9 for New York.