UFC 274 odds, expert picks, predictions, betting trends for Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje

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Charles Oliveira (left) and Justin Gaethje (right)
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**NOTE: This was produced before Charles Oliveira was stripped of the UFC lightweight title**

A huge UFC lightweight title fight will take place at UFC 274 on May 7, as Charles Oliveira defends his title against Justin Gaethje. The fight will happen inside the Footprint Center in Phoenix. 

Oliveira beat Michael Chandler at UFC 262 to win the UFC lightweight title. At UFC 269 in December, he beat Dustin Poirier via submission to defend the belt. Oliveira joined the UFC in 2010 after making his MMA debut in 2008. He is 20-8 with one no-contest in the UFC and is on a 10-fight win streak.

Gaethje, a World Series of Fighting lightweight champion, made his MMA debut in 2011. All but one of his wins in the UFC have been via some form of knockout. "The Highlight" is coming off a violent affair against Chandler at UFC 268 in November. Gaethje won the fight via unanimous decision. He last fought for the lightweight title in 2020, losing to Khabib Nurmagomedov. 

Who will walk out of the octagon with the UFC lightweight title? The Sporting News is here to give some insight on how to bet on this fight, which could be one for the ages. 

MORE: UFC 274 fight date, time, odds, PPV price, card & location for Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje

UFC 274 odds for Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje

According to the Fanduel Sportsbook, Oliveira is the -188 favorite, meaning a $188 wager will result in a $100 profit. Gaethje is the +152 underdog, meaning a wager of $152 will result in a $231.04 profit.

In Canada, Per Sports Interaction, Oliveira is the -175 favorite while Gaethje is the +135 underdog.  

UFC 274 prop bets for Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje

  • Oliveira via KO/TKO: +750 
  • Oliveira via submission: +135 
  • Oliveira via decision: +500 
  • Gaethje via KO/TKO: +200 
  • Gaethje via submission: +3400 
  • Gaethje via decision: +1000

Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje prediction

Like most battles the two have had, the start of this fight is going to be a war. Who has the better fight strategy? 

One aspect in which Oliveira has dominated, at least compared with Gaethje, is the ground game. "Do Bronx" averages 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a takedown accuracy rate of 41 percent. He also averages 2.8 submissions per 15 minutes. In his past four fights he has four takedowns and eight submission attempts. 

An All-American in Division 1 college, Gaethje has experience as a wrestler. While he hasn't used it much, his takedown defense mark of 73 percent is impressive. To combat Oliveira's grappling, Gaethje has worked with UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman. One mistake caught him against Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2020. He told The Sporting News that this fight is different and that he is ready for whatever Oliveira has in store for him. 

When we talk about on the feet, this can be anyone's game. Gaethje is a brawler, and he has punished his opponents over his past few fights. He lands 7.5 significant strikes per 15 minutes (3.44 for Oliveira) and has a strike accuracy of 60 percent (52 percent for Oliveira). Gaethje throws devastating leg kicks and can punch your lights out whenever he wants. 

Against Tony Ferguson, Gaethje landed an astounding 143 shots, a majority to his face. He landed 116 against Michael Chandler in a war inside Madison Square Garden. That was a fight in which Gaethje was ready to go all night. Oliveira is known to have a chin, but can he take all that damage against a hard-hitting Gaethje? 

MORE: Sign up to watch the UFC 274 PPV, exclusively on ESPN+

One thing about Oliveira is his ability to fight like a chameleon. He can adapt to whatever is needed. Since losing to Paul Felder via TKO in 2017, Oliveira has won 10 straight fights. Six of those wins have come via submission, three via some form of knockout and one has gone the distance. He battled back against Chandler and Dustin Poirier after early trouble. 

In only 10 UFC fights, Gaethje has absorbed 7.81 significant strikes per minute. That is a lot. Oliveira has only absorbed about 3.13. That may play a factor, especially given how both like to go on the attack. 

Oliveira has proved he doesn't need regular takedowns or submissions to stop a fight. He can find his moment, sweep Gaethje in any way and tire him out. Oliveira battles back and dishes enough damage to make it a fight. Gaethje will go down swinging and will look to give it everything he’s got. 

Both are true gladiators. Something will have to give. With Oliveira's overall ability and adaptability coming into play, there is cause for concern for Gaethje. At the end of the night, we could hear Bruce Buffer saying, “AND STILL!”

Sporting News prediction: Oliveira via submission (+135)

When is UFC 274: Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje?

  • Date: Saturday, May 7
  • Start time: 6 p.m. ET
  • Prelims: 8 p.m. ET
  • Main card (PPV): 10 p.m. ET
  • Main event: 12:15 a.m. ET (approx.)

UFC 274: Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje takes place on Saturday, May 7. The early prelims kick off the event at 6 p.m. ET. The prelims will begin at 8 p.m. ET and the main card will start at 10 p.m. ET. Oliveira and Gaethje should make their way to the octagon around midnight ET, depending on the length of the undercard bouts.

Click here to learn about the different pricing and bundling options with the ESPN+ platform.

How to watch UFC 274: Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje

  • TV channels: ESPN+, ESPN Deportes
  • Live stream: ESPN+

The main card for UFC 274 is available in the U.S. and Mexico on the ESPN+ subscription streaming service for a pay-per-view cost. That portion of the event begins at 10 p.m. ET.

Earlier fights are viewable live on ESPN+, the WatchESPN app and, for the early prelims, on UFC Fight Pass.

In Canada, the main card pay-per-view is available on Bell, Rogers, Shaw, SaskTel, Videotron, Telus, Eastlink and UFC PPV on UFC Fight Pass.

In the United Kingdom, the main card will be available on BT Sport 1, with the prelims available on UFC Fight Pass. 

In Australia, the main card will be on Main Event, Fetch TV, and UFC PPV on UFC Fight Pass.

Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje price: How much does UFC 274 cost?

  • $74.99 (current ESPN+ subscribers)
  • $99.98 (new subscribers)

In the U.S., the UFC 274 main card is available via pay-per-view on ESPN+, which also requires a subscription. The PPV price for UFC 274 is $74.99 for current subscribers. New subscribers can pay a bundle price of $99.98 for the UFC 274 pay-per-view and an ESPN+ annual subscription, which offers savings of more than 30 percent.

Product Prices
ESPN+ Monthly Subscription $6.99/month
ESPN+ Annual Subscription $69.99/year
The Disney Bundle w/Hulu Ad-Supported $19.99/month
The Disney Bundle w/Hulu No-Ads $13.99/month
UFC PPV Standalone $74.99 each
UFC PPV Package (UFC PPV & ESPN+ Annual) $99.98, then $69.99/year
UFC PPV & The Disney Bundle

$88.98, then $13.99/month

UFC 274 fight card

Main Card (10 p.m. ET) 

  • Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje for the UFC lightweight title
  • Rose Namajunas (c) vs. Carla Esparza 2 for the UFC strawweight title
  • Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson; Lightweights
  • Mauricio Rua vs. Ovince Saint Preux; Light Heavyweights
  • Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon; Lightweights

Prelims (8 p.m. ET)

  • Randy Brown vs. Khaos Williams; Welterweights
  • Macy Chiasson vs. Norma Dumont; Featherweights
  • Brandon Royval vs. Matt Schnell; Flyweights
  • Blagoy Ivanov vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima; Heavyweights

Early Prelims (6 p.m. ET)

  • Francisco Trinaldo vs. Danny Roberts; Welterweights
  • Tracy Cortez vs. Melissa Gatto; Flyweights
  • Kleydson Rodrigues vs. C.J. Vergara; Flyweights
  • Ariane Carnelossi vs. Loopy Godinez; Strawweights
  • Journey Newson vs. Fernie Garcia; Bantamweights
  • Andre Fialho vs. Cameron VanCamp; Welterweights

The Sporting News may earn an affiliate commission when you sign up for a streaming service through our links. The Sporting News' affiliates have no influence over the editorial content included in this article.

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Daniel Yanofsky is the Combat Sports Editor for Sporting News. He is a proud Ithaca College alum, and an advocate for three-minute rounds in women's boxing. You can follow him on Twitter via @DanYanofsky.