In your quest to punch a ticket to the fantasy football championship, avoiding prime bust candidates like Antonio Gibson, George Kittle, and Austin Ekeler can give you the upper hand in extending your season another week. Our Week 16 fantasy bust list uncovers overvalued players destined to fall on their faces and crush your title hopes should you trust them with your season on the line.
Of course, even "must-starts" can have off-days (Derrick Henry, you crushed our hopes and dreams) but you won't see those types of players among our bust picks unless we legitimately advise benching them. We're looking for players on the start-sit bubble -- not obvious starters and not players owned in just a small percentage of leagues. You might not have enough depth to bench the players below -- or you might just disagree with our picks -- but either way, it's your team, so make the decisions that work best for you.
If you took our advice last week by avoiding lineup killers like D'Onta Foreman, Kyler Murray, Marquise Brown, Drake London, Calvin Ridley, Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts, and the Lions D/ST, there's a real chance you ended the week in the win column. We're aiming to replicate that level of success this week, helping you in your quest to a fantasy championship.
Don't gamble a trip to the fantasy championship on these busts.
WEEK 16 FANTASY ADVICE: Sleepers | Projections | Start-sit
Fantasy RB Busts Week 16
James Conner, Cardinals @ Bears (Nick Musial). Even in a negative game script, Conner ran all over the 49ers (14 carries, 86 yards, one TD). However, don't expect his efficiency to carry over against the league's third-most efficient run defense (-0.191 rush EPA). Only one running back (David Montgomery, Week 11) has rushed for over 75 yards against the Bears this year. Chicago's steady front seven likely holds Conner to an underwhelming rushing output this week.
Gus Edwards, Ravens @ 49ers (Vinnie Iyer). Don’t get on the Gus Bus. There’s no need to discuss much. The Niners were hurting in the middle of their defense last week, but they can handle his power with no Keaton Mitchell (knee) on the ground to test them. Make a new plan, Stan, for some more robust fantasy points.
Antonio Gibson, Commanders @ Jets (Matt Lutovsky). There’s a decent chance Gibson starts again with Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring) ailing, but after playing just 45 percent of snaps and totaling 35 yards on nine touches last week, there’s no reason to trust him despite a more favorable matchup. The Jets have struggled against RBs all year, but Chris Rodriguez Jr. will likely lead the Commanders in carries while Sam Howell continues to run for his life and chuck it to the WRs.
Bonus: Austin Ekeler, Chargers vs. Bills (Lutovsky). Ekeler is sharing more touches with Isaiah Spiller and Joshua Kelley, and the Chargers' once-powerful offense is a shell of its former self. He'll likely need a touchdown to really pay off, and against a Buffalo defense that has been mostly shutting down back in the second half of the season, there's no guarantee he'll get it.
WEEK 16 PPR RANKINGS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Fantasy QB Busts Week 16
Joe Flacco, Browns @ Texans (Musial). Flacco's been a revelation in Kevin Stefanski's scheme, but a tough test awaits against DeMeco Ryans' ascending stop unit. Houston boasts the league's fourth-highest pressure rate (25.2 percent), as their ability to win at the point and fluster Flacco could lead to his first true dud as the Browns QB1.
Kyler Murray, Cardinals @ Bears (Iyer). The Bears’ pass defense has been nasty of late, and they also have the linebacker corps to contain Murray's running should Montez Sweat and the revamped pass rush not get him. He also is likely to just have Trey McBride to throw all over the field and not much else of note with likely no Marquise Brown (heel).
Jordan Love, Packers @ Panthers (Lutovsky). Love put up solid numbers last week after a down Week 14, but we’d expect another disappointment this time around. The Panthers give up the fewest fantasy points to QBs, and the Packers should be able to run all over them. Love will be mediocre, at best.
WEEK 16 STANDARD RANKINGS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Fantasy WR Busts Week 16
Jakobi Meyers, Raiders @ Chiefs (Musial). Everything clicked for the Raiders in Week 15, but we expect the Aidan O'Connell-led offense to revert to a version similar to their 202-yard showing the week prior. Meyers has totaled fewer than 50 receiving yards in six of his past seven games, and another low-yardage output feels likely against a sound Kansas City coverage unit.
Terry McLaurin, Commanders @ Jets (Iyer). The good news is Scary Terry lived up to his nickname (finally) and exploded for a big game against the Rams in Week 15. The bad news is that he did his key damage with Jacoby Brissett in relief and now is playing the Jets’ secondary in Week 16 with shaky QB situation -- on the road again, no less. He’s more like Nary Terry this week.
Josh Palmer, Chargers vs. Bills (Lutovsky). Palmer had a big day in his first game back from a knee injury last week, but it was almost all thanks to a 79-yard TD catch. If he doesn’t pop a big play again, he’ll likely post a mediocre day with an overwhelmed Easton Stick under center. It’s not worth the risk with your season on the line.
WEEK 16 DFS:
DK lineup | FD lineup | Best values | Best stacks
Fantasy TE Busts Week 16
George Kittle, 49ers vs. Ravens (Musial). We understand it's tough to bench Kittle given he's likely your squad's unquestioned TE1, but the Ravens have surrendered the sixth-fewest fantasy points to TEs. They just held Evan Engram to 28 yards and four catches, and if Kittle can't reach paydirt, a low-end TE1 finish looks like his ceiling.
Kyle Pitts, Falcons vs. Colts (Iyer). You might think Arthur Smith will remember he’s back home again and make sure to get Pitts the ball like it was Week 14. Then again, Pitts is just as likely to be playing third fiddle at tight end while you get distracted by the coach not using Bijan Robinson or Drake London well, either.
Dallas Goedert, Eagles vs. Giants (Lutovsky). The Giants were burned for two TE touchdowns last week, so Goedert is by no means completely off-limits. However, his production hasn’t been great since coming off the IR, and New York is allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to TEs. The ceiling is always decent, but the floor is low this week.
Fantasy Defense Busts Week 16
Miami Dolphins vs. Cowboys (Musial). The Dolphins made amends for their Week 14 dud with a 30-0 shutout over the Jets, but they're seemingly catching the Cowboys at the worst time following one of their lowest-scoring outputs of the year. Dak and company will get back on track against a banged-up Dolphins defense, nixing their road woes with a vintage performance.
Baltimore Ravens @ 49ers (Iyer). Don’t get arrogant and think they will be the ones to rock Brock Purdy when he has all his weapons and blockers intact. Being on the road at night isn’t great in general for a defense, and the 49ers won’t be slowed down much here.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Ravens (Lutovsky). The Niners have a knack for making big plays, but injuries have sapped the run defense, which is exactly where the Ravens will attack. San Francisco isn’t a terrible play, but you can definitely find a sleeper with a better matchup that can give you bigger numbers.