While Super Bowl 57 is 11 days away, it's never too early to get your prop bets in before most of the public's money inflates the market. With the Super Bowl being such a heavily bet event relative to other games, you'll see a more significant fluctuation in pricing and line movement, usually in the OVER markets. We're attempting to get ahead of those line moves to get the best of the number, giving ourselves a higher chance to cash our tickets.
DraftKings Sportsbook's already posted an abundance of props, and we've sifted through their offerings and broken down our favorite Kansas City Chiefs prop bets for Super Bowl 57. We think Travis Kelce once again reaches paydirt while Isiah Pacheco shows out on the big stage. In addition to props for those two skill-position studs, we've found plenty of actionable props to consider for the AFC Champion Chiefs.
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Super Bowl 57 Prop Bets: Best Chiefs props
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Travis Kelce anytime TD scorer (-135)
There's a high probability Kelce's anytime TD scorer prop closes lower than -130, so getting your bet in now rather than waiting until game day is a smart move. Not much needs to be said about Kelce, as the league's best tight end is a scoring machine, racking up 15 TDs so far this season. He also always shows up in the biggest moments, scoring a TD in eight of his past nine playoff games. He ended the regular season leading all players in red-zone targets (29) and has the chance to assume a higher-than-normal target share with several Chiefs' WRs (Kadarius Toney, Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster) banged up at the moment. We'd recommend betting Kelce to score a TD up to -140.
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Isiah Pacheco OVER 68.5 rushing plus receiving yards (-120)
Pacheco assumed a large workload in the AFC championship game, logging a 57-percent snap share to go along with 15 total touches (10 carries, five receptions). We think there's a good chance Pacheco assumes an even larger snap share in the Super Bowl, making his 68.5 total rushing and receiving yards prop well within reach. Pacheco only averaged 2.6 yards per carry against the Bengals, but against an Eagles defense that's allowed the 10th-highest rush EPA (-0.043), he looks to be in line for a better rushing performance. Pacheco hadn't been much of a threat in the receiving game but had a career-high 59 receiving yards against Cincinnati. Chances are he doesn't eclipse that number this week, but as long as he chips in with at least 20-plus receiving yards, he should post at least 70 plus total rushing and receiving yards.
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Jerick McKinnon UNDER 19.5 rushing yards (-110)
McKinnon took a backseat to Pacheco in the AFC championship game, and we're expecting that to continue during the Super Bowl. McKinnon logged just one rushing yard on four carries against the Bengals, and even when he saw a season-high 11 carries in the divisional round against Jacksonville, he finished with just 25 total rushing yards. We're not expecting McKinnon to come close to 11 carries against the Eagles, resulting in him rushing for fewer than 20 rushing yards. Much of the reason McKinnon logged a season-high 11 carries in the divisional round was a result of Patrick Mahomes' ankle injury. Now that Mahomes has more time to heal up, McKinnon isn't likely to see enough usage in the run game to reach 20 rushing yards.
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Jerick McKinnon longest rush UNDER 9.5 yards (-110)
Coinciding with a bet on McKinnon to record fewer than 25 rushing yards, we'll also bet on his longest rush to be UNDER 10 yards. While McKinnon's had a handful of impactful plays as a receiver, he hasn't done much as a runner, averaging just 3.64 yards per carry this season. Since we're expecting Pacheco to assume the majority of the rushing attempts, McKinnon has also only recorded a rush longer than 10 yards in four games this season, and with a limited workload, it's likely he fails to log to eclipse this number.
Kansas City Chiefs OVER 0.5 4th Down Conversions (-150)
Despite Kansas City ranking second-to-last in fourth-down attempts during the regular season (12) we're betting on the Chiefs to convert at least one fourth down. While it's a relatively small sample size, the Chiefs sport the second-highest fourth-down conversion rate (75 percent), as they've been efficient when they decide to keep their offense on the field. With the Chiefs pegged as slight underdogs, there's a chance the offense attempts a couple of fourth-down plays, as well. At -150, we think Andy Reid dials up a smart play call with the offense on the field to convert a fourth down.
Kansas City Chiefs Team Total OVER 24.5 points (-110)
It's rare to see Kansas City's team total sitting at only 24.5, as there was just one game this season (Week 4 at Tampa Bay) where the Chiefs team total closed lower than 24.5 (23.5). A matchup against a well-rounded Eagles defense that's held its opponents to a total of 14 points through two playoff games plays a part in the low total, but we can't stomach fading the league's most efficient offense in the big game. Mahomes now has ample time to heal his ankle, making him more of a threat to create explosive, off-schedule plays with his feet and arm. Omitting last week's matchup against the injury-riddled 49ers, the Eagles' defense hasn't faced an offense that ranks in the top 10 in drop-back EPA since their Week 16 contest against the Cowboys, a game in which they allowed 40 points. We think this is a prime buy-low opportunity on an offense that's rarely priced like this.
Harrison Butker OVER 7.5 kicking points (-120)
Butker's kicking points prop correlates to Kansas City's team total prop, as we're expecting the Chiefs' offense to fare a bit better than the betting market currently suggests. Butker has a real shot to score at least eight points via his legs, connecting on two field goals plus two extra points at the very minimum. Despite a tough regular season for the six-year vet that saw him connect on just 75 percent of his field goal attempts (18-of-24) while missing three extra points (38-of-41), Butker's been Mr. Reliable in the playoffs. He's connected on all five field goal attempts (two 50-plus-yard FGs) and extra points, and sustaining that type of efficiency feels likely in State Farm Stadium's prime kicking conditions.
QB Parlay: Patrick Mahomes to record 150-plus passing yards in each half (+800)
We'll wrap up our Chiefs prop piece with a longer-shot parlay special, needing Mahomes to throw for at least 150 yards in both halves. As the odds suggest, the implied probability of this bet hitting sits at just 11.11 percent, but it's still an entertaining wager to make on the league's most elite QB. Even when the odds are seemingly against him, Mahomes finds a way to make the unimaginable possible. In a year where some expected regression for the Chiefs' offense following the departure of Tyreek Hill, Mahomes has been the most efficient QB in terms of expected points added (+263.1) while leading the league in QBR (77.6) and true passer rating (104.7). Nothing's out of the realm of possibility for "Showtime."