LAS VEGAS — They can’t win on the road! It became a mantra from a regular seatmate as a late Saturday morning of college hoops at the Green Valley Ranch sportsbook eked into the afternoon, drifting into the evening.
Friends came and went, but two pals and myself were constants. A game finished. The reminder. They can’t win on the road!
Florida and Kansas were early road losers, then Arkansas. Marquette (without key cogs Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro), Wake Forest, Kansas State, Michigan State and other travelers fell.
They can’t win on the road! I’m sure that persistent phrase popped into my coconut in a dream or two, or a thousand, into the wee hours.
It did make me ponder the value of winning away from home and covering the spread in highway games, how both might temper a squad and fuel it for a long run?
Does road performance matter?
So I excavated the profiles of the past 10 titlists to highlight common denominators, to find out how well the road might prepare a squad for a crowning achievement.
Shop around: Top-rated sports betting sites | Best sportsbook promos and bonuses
How past 10 NCAA champs fared in road games ATS and straight up
Last Season, Connecticut was barely above water in winning and covering, 6-5 in both, on the road.
None of the rest of that Final Four was below .500 in either of those two areas, as Florida Atlantic, Miami and San Diego State were a combined 26-9 away from home, 23-12 against the number.
The Huskies, of course, turned on the heat once the NCAAs began, going 6-0 against the spread and covering those games by an incredible 14.8 points a game.
In the past 10 NCAAs, UConn of 2013-14, Duke the following season and Villanova (in ’15-16 and ’17-18) also went 6-0 ATS en route to winning it all.
At 16.3 points, that 2015-16 Nova group was the only one, however, that beat the number by a higher rate than UConn did last season.
That scintillating quartet went 35-11 on the road, covering 26 of those 46 games.
Besides last season’s Huskies and those four standouts, the other five champs were 37-14 on the highway, 31-20 ATS.
Of all 10 titlists, only 2021-22 Kansas (4-6) and ’16-17 North Carolina (3-8) were sub-.500 against the number away from home.
So, in general, it helps to both win consistently on the road and, most of the time, to beat the spread, which we might have guessed.
More: Best March Madness betting sites and promos | Latest college basketball betting odds
Arizona and UConn best fit championship profile
Those figures will be helpful as we try to zero in on a title favorite, or two or three, with an abundance of the 2023-24 season having been completed.
Conference tournaments have already begun, so this is a sweet spot to try to foretell the NCAAs and, perhaps, unearth value.
With that road knowledge, we add an ingredient into the recipe from stats guru Ken Pomeroy to better read the tea leaves.
Of the past 10 NCAA champions, only one (UConn in ’14, at No. 39) did not sport an adjusted offensive rating among the nation’s top 10. All had top-22 adjusted defensive ratings.
Entering this week, only four teams fit those parameters — Purdue (2, 21), UConn (4, 17), Arizona (6, 14) and Duke (8, 20).
To further whittle the playing field, we incorporate aforementioned road standards to eliminate Duke and Purdue, with road ATS records of 4-5-1 and 4-5, respectively.
Arizona and UConn — 6-3 and 5-4 ATS highway marks, respectively — for the national title inside State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., on Monday, April 8?
That’s one way to completely remove any personal bias or feelings, the heart, about how this might play out, to apply certain salient filters to the madness.
I, though, will not buy UConn-over-Arizona or Arizona-over-UConn exacta propositions, when those combinations are released in a few weeks.
Mainly, I don’t trust Arizona center Oumar Ballo at the line (50.3% touch) in a tight, late scenario. And among teams with at least 15 NCAA tourney games played since 2013, the Wildcats have the worst ATS record, at 4-13.
Bad portents, those.
I have purchased Final Four and title tickets on both the Huskies (+250 Final Four, two title units at 16-1 apiece) and Wildcats (+260, 12-1) for the portfolio, so I’ve got them covered.
For other Final Four qualifiers, I would not object to some combination of Princeton (60-1 to make the national semifinals), Michigan State (40-1), San Diego State (18-1), or Illinois, Florida Atlantic or BYU, all at +950 apiece, to upset the cart.
Related: Best college basketball betting sites and apps
Road upsets paid handsomely for brave moneyline bettors
Certain away teams did fare well Saturday, and nobody upset the roundball universe more than Texas-San Antonio, a 17-point underdog at SMU that won, 77-73. The Roadrunners were 10-1 shots to win outright on the moneyline.
UTSA improved to 11-19 overall, and 5-12 in the American Athletic Conference.
It’s been a grind in San Antonio for coach Steve Henson, who played for Lon Kruger at Kansas State. In Henson’s nine seasons, the ’Runners have finished a campaign with a winning record just three times.
If all that ends up in pink slips, his staff can at the very least know that it went out with a bang in Dallas.
At +425 on the moneyline, Texas-El Paso was the next-biggest profit maker by winning at Liberty, 67-51, as a 10-point dog.
Third-year Miners boss Joe Golding was the architect of Abilene Christian’s humongous 53-52 upset of Texas in the first round of the NCAAs three years ago.
And +330 New Mexico State, an 8.5-point dog, won 66-64 at Jacksonville State. That halted a six-game Conference USA skid for new Aggies boss Jason Hooten.
In his 13th and final season at Sam Houston last season, Hooten guided the Bearkats to an NIT first-round victory at Santa Clara, the biggest win in their history, before leaping to Las Cruces, N.M.
(Had anyone had an inkling about UTSA, UTEP and Sam Houston at the start of Saturday and slapped a $10 parlay on those three winning outright, the profit would have been $2,473.25.)
There is an art to it, with luck always playing its dastardly role, but winning on the road can deliver healthy returns to those who can spot certain situations and tendencies.
For title-aspiring sides, it’s an element that can add some steel for a run to the national spotlight on a certain Monday.
If you purchase a product or register for an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation.