Those who heard the comments of Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot on Tuesday should not be altogether surprised by the selection of Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick.
"The way Green Bay has operated, I think you have to think like that," Fontenot said, per Josh Kendall of The Athletic. "If we see a player we believe can be a franchise quarterback at any point whether it be this draft or next draft then you have to bring that player in.”
Taking a page out of the Packers' book when it comes to developing a succession plan at quarterback is never a truly bad idea. Green Bay went from one Hall of Famer (Brett Favre) to another future Hall of Famer (Aaron Rodgers) to someone who guided the Packers to a playoff win in his first year as a starter (Jordan Love).
The Falcons' strategy is a bold one. Atlanta signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract in the offseason. It appeared the Falcons had finally found its answer at quarterback for the first time since trading Matt Ryan to the Colts in 2022. Cousins has barely finished having the letters sewn to the back of his first Atlanta jersey before the Falcons used their top draft choice, a top-10 pick, on a quarterback who will undoubtedly apply pressure to the 35-year-old coming off a torn Achilles.
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That pick could have been spent on a defensive player or another offensive piece geared toward helping the Falcons win in 2024. Instead, the pick was used completely as a development choice. It also appears to have stunned the player the Falcons just signed with $100 million in total guarantees.
There are some early similarities to the Falcons and Packers plans of succession at quarterback. There are also some key differences. Sporting News is taking a look at the key differences.
MORE: Round 1 winners, losers | Round 2-3, mock draft
Falcons succession plan vs. Packers
Quarterback ages
This is where the similarities are the most prominent. The Packers rode with Favre and Rodgers for a long time. But before either were quite at the end of the road, Green Bay drafted their respective successors.
Cousins is currently 35 years old, and he'll be heading into his age-36 season. If he plays out the length of his contract, he'll be 39 years old at the end of the deal.
When the Packers drafted Rodgers in 2005, Favre was 35-going-on-36. Love's selection in 2020 came when Rodgers was 36-going-on-37. Both times the quarterback draft choices came for quarterbacks going into a back-half of 30s age.
Unlike Cousins, neither Favre nor Rodgers were coming off injury seasons. Cousins tore his Achilles eight games into the 2023 season. Favre had played 16 games in 12 straight years. Rodgers had been through two straight fully healthy seasons and had played all 16 games in five of the past six years.
As for the successors, there is a bit of a deviation. Rodgers was 21 years old when he was drafted and would turn 22 in December of 2005. Love was also 21 when he was drafted and he would turn 22 in November of 2020.
MORE FALCONS DRAFTING MICHAEL PENIX:
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Penix has been in college for a while. He played five years of college football and is 23 years old at the time of the draft. In under a month, he'll turn 24, the age he'll be for the entirety of his rookie season. That puts him two years older than both Rodgers and Love.
The key aspect of the age is in their timelines of play. The expectation is certainly not that Penix will start right away, just as the expectation was that neither Rodgers nor Love would start immediately. But by the time Rodgers and Love took over, they were 24-going-on-25. If Penix sits for three years and starts in his fourth, the same length of time the other two waited, he would be 27 years old. Love is not yet 27 and by time Rodgers turned 27, he had already been a starter for nearly three full seasons. That's a lot of prime years Penix would miss as a backup.
Quarterback contracts
Before fully diving into the contracts of each quarterback, there is another key distinction between the plans: the Packers already had Favre and Rodgers in the building. They were already familiar with team management and would have had established relationships with the front office. Cousins arrived in Atlanta a month ago. That means he does not know the executives or have the same level of trust with the front office that the other two established QBs had in Green Bay.
As for the contract situations, there are also some similarities. Cousins signed for four years, meaning he's locked in through the 2027 season. That contract has $90 million guaranteed at signing that is his signing bonus, his 2024 salary and his 2025 salary, according to Spotrac. The Falcons could get out of the deal after only two years with limited damage to the cap.
Quarterback contracts used to be slightly different. Terms were significantly longer than they are in today's NFL. Favre signed a 10-year, $101.5 million deal with the Packers that started in 2001 and ran through 2010, per Spotrac. When the Packers drafted Rodgers, Favre still had six years left on his contract. Moving on from Favre was going to be significantly more difficult than the Falcons parting ways with Cousins. Favre wound up retiring, then immediately unretiring and demanding a release after the 2007 season that paved the way for Rodgers' ascendancy.
MORE: Cousins vs. Penix contract details
Rodgers was in a different situation. He had signed a four-year, $134 million extension in 2018 that kept him locked in through the 2022 season with a void year in 2023, per Spotrac. When Love was drafted in 2020, Rodgers had three real years left on his contract. Of course, Green Bay wound up extending Rodgers with a three-year deal before the 2022 season. That campaign wound up being Rodgers' last before he was traded to the Jets.
In all situations, the rookie quarterback arrived as a first-rounder with at least three years remaining on the contract, which accounts for three-fourths of a rookie contract. Love and Penix are the only two players that have arrived in the days of the fifth-year option, which gives them an extra year of team control, though it comes at a hefty cost.
Team situation/draft pick
The last major piece of the puzzle is evaluating the status of the two teams at the time of the picks, and which pick it took to acquire that quarterback.
First, the situations. The Packers in both situations were perennial title contenders. Green Bay won a Super Bowl in 1996 with Favre, but struggled to get past the divisional round despite making consistent postseason appearances. Heading into the 2005 season, the Packers were coming off a division title. They wound up going 4-12 and finishing last.
The Rodgers' Packers were quite similar. Green Bay won a Super Bowl in 2010 with Rodgers, but then floundered in the postseason. The Packers went 13-3 and lost the conference championship the season before drafting Love. The Packers went 13-3 and lost the conference championship the first season with Love on the roster.
The Falcons have struggled mightily in recent years. Atlanta doesn't have a winning record or a postseason appearance since losing in the divisional round in 2017. Though the Falcons feel like they're trending in the right direction, they still finished 7-10 in 2022.
Now to the draft picks. All three quarterbacks were drafted with first-round picks. But not all first-round picks are the same. Rodgers was taken 24th overall in 2005. Eleven players drafted before Rodgers earned Pro Bowl nods. Only 21 players the entire rest of the draft earned at least one Pro Bowl (just 15 had multiples). Love went 26th overall in 2020. Eight players before Love have Pro Bowl nods in their early career. Only 11 players after Love have earned at least one Pro Bowl nod.
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In the seven-round draft era, which dates back to 1994, 164 players taken with top-10 picks have earned Pro Bowls (54.5 percent). There have been 694 players drafted after the top 10 that have earned Pro Bowls. Sound impressive? That's just 9.5 percent of picks.
Penix wasn't taken in the 20s. He was a top-10 pick. Players in that range face additional pressure to reach levels of greatness because of the pick value. Pro Bowls are by no means the end-all, be-all for evaluating a successful career, but it highlights the talent level that's available in the top 10 that isn't as guaranteed later in the class. Love and Rodgers were taken in the 20s. That they've gone on to find so much success is a bonus.
The pick for Penix could have been used to get a non-quarterback that had a better chance of finding immediate success and assisting the team in another area. Every defensive player was available, most offensive tackles and all wide receivers but Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers. That's a lot of potential talent who could help in 2024 left on the board.
Perhaps sitting Penix for a few seasons behind Cousins will have the same effect as Rodgers behind Favre and Love behind Rodgers. But it's going to be a while before this pick can be fully graded out.