When Luis Nery enters the ring to face undisputed super bantamweight champion Naoya Inoue on May 6, he is expected to go the way of all flesh. Despite being a two-weight world titleholder, the Mexican southpaw is a prohibitive +600 underdog (according to BetMGM) to tame “The Monster”.
Can Nery pull off the upset and kick sand in the faces of fans and experts? Well, boxing history is replete with shocks across every weight division. The most recent example was Ryan Garcia overcoming huge odds to hand pound-for-pound star Devin Haney his first professional defeat on April 20. How many of us got that one wrong?
WATCH: Naoya Inoue vs. Luis Nery, exclusively on ESPN+
Inoue (26-0, 23 KOs) looks as close to unbeatable as any fighter in the world right now. Like Thomas Hearns before him, the Japanese star has been able to carry his punch through multiple weight classes and still deliver crunching knockouts. And unlike Hearns, Inoue appears invulnerable to taking big punches back.
Nery (35-1, 27 KOs) is an excellent fighter in his own right. The ex-champ from Tijuana has world-class skills and, as his record indicates, he also carries a big punch. This separates him from the other two fighters that Inoue has defeated in this weight class. Stephen Fulton only had eight knockouts in 21 wins, while Marlon Tapales had 19 knockouts in 37 victories. This opponent can crack.
The Sporting News weighs up Luis Nery’s chances in the biggest fight of his life:
Can Luis Nery score a knockout against Naoya Inoue?
If Nery lands his best shot flush on the chin of any super bantamweight, then he has the potential to take them out. He sets his power up very well, which was showcased several times in The Ring Magazine Fight of the Year win over Azat Hovhannisyan.
Nery is also an adept counter puncher, particularly with the left hand which is a very quickly loaded weapon. If he can walk Inoue onto a big bomb, then he could do significant damage. The challenger also has the requisite killer instinct to follow up on an attack and he isn’t afraid to let his hands go.
MORE: Naoya Inoue vs. Luis Nery: Grudges to be settled
The question is, can he finish the job against Inoue? In his 24 fights, we’ve only seen the Japanese star troubled once and that was in the 2019 Fight of the Year against Nonito Donaire. In that fight, Inoue suffered a broken orbital bone and he was shaken to his boots on at least two other occasions.
But despite the punishment that Inoue absorbed in that fight, he still prevailed via 12-round unanimous decision. The Japanese star fought fire with fire against a rejuvenated Donaire, who is a boxing legend and a thunderous hitter himself.
A Nery stoppage would cause a sensation.
Can Luis Nery win a decision over Naoya Inoue?
When you’re known for having thunderous punching power and an incredible highlight reel of knockouts, it tends to overshadow all your other attributes. It all comes down to optics with fight fans.
However, Inoue is a wonderful boxer with perfect technique and timing. Many thought the Japanese hero would struggle against the excellent Stephen Fulton last May, but Inoue dominated the tactical battle before setting up the talented American for a chilling finish.
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While Nery’s skills must be respected, he doesn’t have the style necessary to outclass Inoue round after round. No one in the lower-weight classes seems capable of doing that right now. But while he’s fresh and avoiding damage, the Mexican fighter does have the ability to provide a stern test.
The other area where Nery may have an advantage is work rate. In the fight against Hovhannisyan, the Mexican fighter landed 210 of 688 punches en route to an 11th-round stoppage. Against Tapales, Inoue landed 146 of 410 over the same distance. With that said, these were two very different fights.
Can Nery keep up a hot pace over 12 rounds against Inoue and come out on top? The wise gambler wouldn’t bet on it.