When the Steelers travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts and close NFL Week 12 on "Monday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN), they will look to creep closer to .500. Pittsburgh (3-7) is looking at its first-ever losing season under Mike Tomlin. Indianapolis (4-6-1) is hoping to keep improving under interim coach Jeff Saturday.
Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett is starting with more confidence for the Steelers. Veteran Matt Ryan comfortably has his top QB job back for the Colts. The focus, however, will be on what talented young feature backs Najee Harris and Jonathan Taylor can do to get their offenses going down the stretch as they recover from disappointing injury-riddled first halves.
The Steelers have the weaker defense overall, while the Colts have played well on that side of the ball for the most part. Here's breaking down what to expect when they play on MNF and a prediction for the game:
Steelers vs. Colts odds for Monday Night Football
- Spread: Colts by 2.5
- Over/under: 39
- Moneyline: Steelers +120, Colts -145
The Colts have been less than the typical field-goal favorites since the initial lines, despite having a considerable record advantage over the Steelers. Indianapolis has been up-and-down at home as well this season.
Steelers vs. Colts all-time series
The Steelers have dominated this series, up 26-6. They have a seven-game winning streak, going back to 2011 and through 2020. The Colts last won on the road in 2008. The Steelers also beat them at home in the 2005 playoffs.
Three trends to know
—63 percent of spread bettors are siding with the slight favorite Colts as perceived night underdogs.
—51 percent of total bettors are going with the game to go over the low sub-40 number on the fast track.
—The Steelers are 4-5 against the spread this season with four games going over. The Colts are 5-6 ATS this season with only two games going over.
Three things to watch
WR George Pickens vs. Colts CB Stephon Gilmore
The rookie Pickens has been the clear No. 1 receiver for fellow rookie Pickett with Diontae Johnson falling out of favor. That means the ace veteran Gilmore should look to cover Pickens more on the outside, especially in the red zone. His savvy and size can give the confident big playmaker a few issues.
The resurgent Harris
Harris has rushed 40 times for 189 yards in the past two games, his best two games of the 2022 season. The tough sledding has become easier of late and now Harris will continue have the heavy role with rookie Jaylen Warren hamstrung. He's the best way for the Steelers to pull the mild road upset.
The real Taylor
Taylor is finally free of his ankle injury woes and showed it with his 44 carries for 231 yards and 2 TDs the past two weeks, a win over the Raiders and a close loss to the Eagles. The Steelers have struggled up front what a quite a bit and he can be a big factor again.
Stat that matters
272.1. That's how many average yards passing the Steelers give up, That's No. 31 in the league, only ahead of the Vikings. They particularly have issues in wide receiver coverage, so that's good news for Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell playing off Taylor and the running game.
Steelers vs. Colts prediction
The Steelers will have a little more trouble moving the ball with Pickett and Harris than the Colts will with Ryan and Taylor. The Colts have several key defensive pieces hurting, but they are solid all-around and the hostile environment fueled by emotions will help.
Colts 23, Steelers 19