In 2021, every team in the AFC West entered the season with lofty expectations. The Raiders looked like their roster was coming together, the Chargers had found their franchise quarterback in Justin Herbert, and the Broncos seemed to be comfortable with the core they had in place. Add to that the Chiefs starting with a 3-4 record, and it looked like it was time for someone else to step up in the division.
Of course, with Patrick Mahomes, it's never that simple.
The Chiefs ripped off wins in nine of their last 10 games, ultimately clinching the AFC West for the sixth straight year and tightening their stranglehold on the division.
This offseason, the rest of the West seems to be fed up.
The Broncos and Chargers both made major moves this week, with the former landing Russell Wilson in a blockbuster megadeal and the latter acquiring veteran pass rusher Khalil Mack to bolster a defensive line that already boasts Joey Bosa and Jerry Tillery. The message is clear: We're not gonna take it anymore.
With these acquisitions, it's worth taking a look at how the AFC West stacks up, what its strengths and weaknesses are, and which team has the edge after all of these moves.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
If you come at the king, you best not miss. That's the mantra in Kansas City, and the Chiefs are focused on keeping their own house in order. As teams continue to scramble to catch up, the Chiefs have four straight AFC Championship Game appearances, two Super Bowl appearances, and a Super Bowl win. Mahomes is still the guy to catch, and the Chiefs know it -- but the teams in the division are making a concerted push to catch up.
Strengths: The Chiefs still have elite quarterback play behind Mahomes, along with a plethora of weapons for him to throw to. Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, and Travis Kelce are all strong targets, and the Chiefs have already tagged Orlando Brown.
The defense also managed to pick itself up last year, with the trade for Melvin Ingram proving to be a beneficial one. That defense, however, may have problems moving forward.
Weaknesses: The biggest issue for the Chiefs is that Ingram and Tyrann Mathieu will be free agents, along with Anthony Hitchens. That leaves holes on all three levels of the defense that could be hard to fill. With the Broncos landing Wilson, that could be problematic in an AFC West that should have strong quarterback play throughout.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
Disappointment, thy name is Chargers. The Chargers went into last year with incredibly high expectations, but they ultimately failed to reach them, finishing third in the division at 9-8 after a Week 17 loss to the Raiders kept them out of the playoffs. Justin Herbert is the quarterback of the future, that much is clear, but as he enters the third year of his rookie contract that means a payday is knocking.
The Chargers made a big move on Thursday acquiring Khalil Mack, but the reality is even without the addition of Mack they have a strong roster. The question now is if they can put it all together and make a run at not just the Chiefs, but the AFC as a whole.
Strengths: Not only do the Chargers have their quarterback, they have their quarterback on a rookie deal. That's a huge get in today's NFL, and it makes sense Los Angeles would try to capitalize now before Herbert gets paid. The addition of Mack should help Bosa and Tillery on the line, and the secondary featuring Chris Harris and Derwin James makes the Chargers a force to be reckoned with -- on paper.
Weaknesses: And therein lies the rub. The Chargers aren't cursed, but they're as close to it as any team in the league. At the end of every season, they always feel a little less than the sum of their parts. The pressure is on Brandon Staley early in his head coaching career to make the Chargers a complete team. While they are in their roster, that still has to translate to the field.
3. Denver Broncos
The Broncos trading for Russell Wilson immediately improves their overall situation, but there are still some major holes to fill on this team. Despite being second in the league in points allowed per game, the Broncos were 20th in defensive DVOA. They have money to spend in free agency, so picking up some defensive talent to go alongside Patrick Surtain -- who already looks like one of the best young corners in the league -- must be a priority.
To the Broncos' credit, offensively Wilson can't ask for much more. He'll be throwing to Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick, and Jerry Jeudy if Jeudy lives up to his potential. The Broncos also have a good running back corps, which should serve Wilson well.
Strengths: The Broncos turned QB from a position of need to what should be a position of strength. The addition of Nathaniel Hackett as head coach should help Denver, as he brings an offensive system that will allow Wilson to do more downfield. The key now is ensuring that Wilson is still playing smart, but that hasn't been a problem for him throughout his career.
The wide receiving corps is also a big strength for Denver, as Wilson should have options to throw to. That will take some cultivation of chemistry, but it doesn't happen overnight.
Weaknesses: There's a chance this Broncos defense ends up being very good -- a very good chance, in fact. But that doesn't change that it wasn't a strength for the Broncos last year and Ronald Darby was susceptible to head-hunting.
Add to this that the Broncos graded out 31st in the league in rushing the passer, per PFF, and you're putting a lot of faith in Bradley Chubb returning and producing. It's a lot of pressure to put on one player to fix a defense.
The good news for the Broncos, of course, is they have some money to spend on free agency. This team still has questions for the time being, but could jump up in the division again.
4. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders finished last season 10-7, and it was a wild ride to get there.
Between the Jon Gruden debacle that led to Rich Bisaccia closing out the season as head coach and the Henry Ruggs DUI that resulted in a woman's death, the Raiders dealt with a lot off the field last year. They're undoubtedly hoping the dust now settles with Josh McDaniels at the helm, but in some ways it seems to be settling a bit too much.
The Raiders have been content to rest on their laurels so far this offseason, but they do have some money to spend. It's entirely possible they're waiting until free agency to make their big moves to keep up.
Strengths: Say what you will about Derek Carr, but there's something to be said for continuity. The locker room reportedly likes Carr, and McDaniels has given no inkling he wants to move off the QB.
The Vegas pass rush is also a force to be reckoned with, with Maxx Crosby becoming a household name last season. While the Raiders as a unit had their ups and downs defensively, Crosby was consistently in the backfield making plays. That gives the Raiders a solid base to work off next year as they continue to build.
Weaknesses: The biggest weakness this Raiders team has is that it just feels ... average. There isn't a ton of standout or "wow" factor on either side of the ball, nor is there a player who feels like he should have the ball in his hands every crunch time. While that's a hard thing to evaluate, it becomes especially apparent when talking about postseason play.
The Raiders can overcome this, of course, but they'll need to make a move this free agency to make themselves a bit more well-rounded. The reason they stand out right now is because the Broncos and Chargers are making their moves before free agency even begins. There's a non-zero chance we look at things next week in the division and they're completely different.