Week 13 was a great slate of games but it also lead to some more wacky and predictable game results. Some teams jumped out to leads and never relented, while others faded after a hot start. A few rallied late to change their fortunes.
That's life trying to navigate through airtight spreads and game totals from the books. It's been a roller-coaster ride of a season with more surprises, but there were signs of things regressing to the norm.
Let's hope that plays out in Week 14 as we dive into our latest fearless forecast of professional football picks and predictions:
(Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction)
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Bills, Cowboys jump Chiefs with Bengals closing in
NFL picks against the spread for Week 14
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Game of Midweek: Raiders (-6, 44.5) at Rams
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
The Rams have lost their starting quarterback and two most seasoned wide receivers. Their offensive line is a mess and the defense now has taken a big hit with Aaron Donald ailing. Playing a non-division game on a short week against a pro-Las Vegas crowd in Los Angeles against the suddenly red-hot Raiders is a tough draw, especially Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs and Maxx Crosby.
Pick: Raiders win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Result: Rams win 17-16.
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Game of the Week: Dolphins (-3, 52 o/u) at Chargers
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Dolphins need to make another long road trip from South Florida, this time to Southern California. They have the better overall coaching and are the much healthier team, but both offensive lines are injury-riddled for Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert. Herbert will be motivated about the chatter Tua was the better first-round pick in 2020 and Austin Ekeler will be a massive problem for Miami's weary defense.
Pick: Chargers win 30-27
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Upset of the Week: Jaguars over Titans (-3.5, 41.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Jaguars let us down in Detroit big-time last week. The Titans didn't come through at all as our favorite underdogs straight up in Philadelphia. So it's time to put those teams together for this pick. Jacksonville's offense has revved up of late and Trevor Lawrence and his weapons can cause some problems. Its pass rush and coverage woes get a break from Tennessee's limited passing game. The Titans are likely locked into a No. 4 seed as soon-to-be AFC South champs again, so their motivation should be just being focused on being the healthiest for the playoffs.
Pick: Jaguars win 20-17
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Lock of the Week: Eagles (-7, 45.5 o/u) over Giants
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Eagles are back to being the early-season Eagles of ripping into teams offensively however they choose with Jalen Hurts, running all over teams or passing downfield. The Giants' defense has been bad against the run but injuries are causing it to fall apart outside against the pass. Philadelphia doesn't need to pick any poison here; it can make New York swallow both before feeling the wrath of a teeing-off defense vs. Daniel Jones. Besides, after incorrectly putting them in the "upset" column last week, this is a makeup call.
Pick: Eagles win 31-14 and cover the spread.
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Jets at Bills (-9, 44)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Jets are scrappier offensively with Mike White with a lot more fight than they had with Zach Wilson. They can hit snags with a depleted running game and inconsistent downfield passing game, however. Their defense will keep them in this game early before a red-hot again Josh Allen takes over with his wideouts inside and outside.
Pick: Bills win 30-20 and cover the spread.
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Browns at Bengals (-6, 47 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Bengals love hearing how much they own the Chiefs of late. But they should hate how much Cleveland has dominated the Battle of Ohio with five consecutive victories and won the earlier meeting this season 32-13. The Bengals have realized how strong their running game can be with Samaje Perine or Joe Mixon playing off Joe Burrow having his full complement of dangerous downfield weapons. The Bengals didn't adjust well in the first matchup without Ja'Marr Chase. Chase makes up for lost time and stops the intrastate skid as Burrow easily outduels Deshaun Watson.
Pick: Bengals win 31-22 and cover the spread.
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Texans at Cowboys (-17, 45 o/u)
Sunday.1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cowboys' offense is scoring. Their defense is scoring. Dak Prescott is completely back leading a dangerous downfield passing attack. Tony Pollard keeps lifting the running game with a big-play element. Dallas can dominate the "Battle of Texas", as 20 years ago, it should remember expansion Houston won the first-ever meeting. The Cowboys pour-it-on and pull-away mentality comes through at home against a team that can't do anything right.
Pick: Cowboys win 38-14.
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Vikings at Lions (-1, 53.5)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Just like the Vikings were disrespected against the Jets at home last week, there's bound to be buzz about them falling to the Lions after the first game at home was so nip-and-tuck. That also would play into the narrative of Detroit being a darling darkhorse in the NFC playoff race as a win would keep it alive to win the North ahead of Minnesota. But the Vikings also hear that noise and will realize they can control this game offensively and defensively with more key talent, experience and better coaching, Congrats to the Vikings clinching the division crown directly on the field.
Pick: Vikings win 27-24.
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Ravens at Steelers (-3, 37)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Lamar Jackson is hurting again, this time with a knee injury that should keep him out for at least one game, if not more. The Ravens are facing another late-season fade out of the AFC playoffs with their North lead being very precarious again. Tyler Huntley, however, is one of the league's best backup QBs and the Ravens should like their chances to get the running game going here to support having this matchup's more dominant defense. Kenny Pickett will have major trouble with their pass rush and secondary after the run is shutdown.
Pick: Ravens win 20-17.
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Chiefs (-9, 43 o/u) at Broncos
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
Patrick Mahomes was not happy at the end of the Bengals game. He wanted one more chance to win the game for the Chiefs and he needs to pour his losing fury into this matchup. He's 9-0 in his career against Denver and won his first-ever start filling in for Alex Smith in Denver. The Broncos' defense will keep them in this game for a little bit, but they simply don't have any inspiring offense with injuries continuing to pile up around Russell Wilson.
Pick: Chiefs win 27-17 and cover the spread.
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Buccaneers at 49ers (-3, 37.5)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The 49ers are turning their offense over to rookie Mr. irrelevant Brock Purdy after Jimmy Garoppolo was their second starting QB to go down for the season. Instead of Jimmy G vs. his old friend the GOAT, it's up to Purdy to deliver on a long road trip game against another playoff team, which is the case despite Tampa Bay's .500 record. The 49ers' defense can make it rough on Tom Brady for his likely finally Bay Area homecoming game. They will shut down the run and contain the big plays downfield after giving up some to the Dolphins. The 49ers just will have too much juice around Purdy led by Christian McCaffrey.
Pick: 49ers win 23-19 and cover the spread.
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Panthers at Seahawks (-3.5, 43.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Panthers, coming out of a bye, are rolling with Sam Darnold at QB and he will duel fellow former Jets starter Geno Smith. Carolina's defense has been pretty good, especially against the pass, but Seattle will stick with a run-oriented game plan regardless of whether rookie Kenneth Walker III (ankle) is healthy enough to carry the load. Darnold will face a tricky pass rush and coverage anchored by Tariq Woolen.
Pick: Seahawks win 24-16 and cover the spread.
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Patriots (-1, 44 o/u) at Cardinals
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Patriots' defense can have trouble with dual threat QBs such as Kyler Murray and between DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown, there are matchup problems downfield vs. the pass. Arizona, like New England, contains the run well and can make it tough on Mac Jones up front as its cornerbacks won't be exposed as much. The bye helps Kliff Kingsbury, who was drafted by Bill Belichick and the Patriots in 2003,, gets the most out of his team needing a prime-time home win to save what's left of his job.
Pick: Cardinals win 24-23.
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Stats of the Week
Week 13 record straight up: 10-3
Week 13 record against the spread: 7-7
Season record straight up: 120-70
Season record against the spread: 96-93