Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! We're excited for our stomachs to be full and even more thankful to have a full slate of NFL football for the first time since Week 5. No bye weeks! That means we have a ton of options for our best bets column that highlights our favorite moneyline, against-the-spread, over/under, and prop bets for Week 12.
Every Wednesday, we review the betting offerings on BetMGM like hungry uncles poring over the Turkey Day buffet line. We find the best bets for the upcoming slate of NFL games, typically selecting eight-to-10 wagers that strike us as both interesting and most likely to win you some cash. We analyze the stats, betting trends, and sharp betting reports to offer you the best advice and give you the greatest odds of achieving weekly betting success.
MORE NFL BETTING: Full list of Week 12 odds | Thanksgiving games
Last week, we got back into the swing of things. We swept our spread picks, including the Cowboys over the Vikings and the Chargers covering against the Chiefs. We hit the Patriots' moneyline against the Jets and got a Derrick Henry TD to satisfy one of our prop bets. That's a pretty good week, but we are hungry for more like my daughter at the pie table after dinner.
Let's make this a holiday to remember and roll out our best bets of Week 12. Have a happy, healthy, safe, and lucrative Thanksgiving, everyone!
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Best Bets Week 12: Against the spread
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM.
Cowboys (-9.5) vs. Giants
Many will bet this spread based on the Giants' 7-3 record in Brian Daboll's debut season as head coach, but I'll be wagering based on the Cowboys' recent play on both sides of the ball and the countless injuries New York is nursing in a short week. Tony Pollard's breakout has been better than even his believers ever thought it would be (myself included), Dak Prescott and his corps of pass-catchers are back to full health, and Micah Parsons is playing like a Defensive Player of the Year for one of the best defenses in the NFL. The 'Boys stomped the 8-1 Vikings on their own turf last week, winning 40-3 and dominating the yardage battle 458-183. Meanwhile, the G-men lost six key players to injury in a Week 11 loss to the 3-6 Lions, most notably receiver Wan'Dale Robinson (knee) and multiple members of the secondary and offensive line. Don't trust Daniel Jones in Dallas, especially with little protection, limited receiving threats, and a diminished defense. This one could be over by halftime.
NFL WEEK 12 PICKS: Against the spread | Moneyline Picks
Buccaneers (-2.5) at Browns (buy a point on BetMGM, -140)
Especially at this time of year, I often choose to cut into my potential payout by buying a point over losing completely because of a close game. With the Bucs favored -3.5 in Cleveland, we'll go the safe route and give them the cover with a field goal. Now a $100 bet nets us $171 with a three-point cover, which is just a $24 difference from the -3.5 spread's potential payout at -105. Here's why we like Tampa: Tom Brady has a pristine track record for winning games after bye weeks. He's won seven of his past 10 games directly following a bye and 15 of 20 in his career. Plus, the Browns have been flat-out bad defensively over the past two weeks. They surrendered a combined 70 points and 848 total yards to Miami and Buffalo, two teams with similar roster constructions to the Buccaneers. Brady gets his Bucs back over .500 with their third straight victory and his 16th career win after a bye.
Packers (+6.5) at Eagles (Sunday Night Football)
I recently wrote about the trend of underdogs covering on Sunday and Monday Night Football. It's not just a theory, people! The Eagles have been showing some midseason regression, losing to the Commanders in Week 10 (in prime time!) and then barely beating the Colts 17-16 in Week 11. Their collective turnover margin across those two games was minus three. Perhaps more noteworthy is what Aaron Rodgers has done in prime-time regular-season games: 42-26, 66.9 completion percentage, 106.1 QB rating, 147 TDs, and 28 interceptions. The veteran has turned it on lately, tossing five TDs and zero picks over Green Bay's past two games thanks in large part to the emergence of speedy rookie wideout Christian Watson. Philly won't beat the back-to-back reigning MVP with 18 first downs as it has netted in each of the past two weeks. Buy the Pack a half-point if you want extra security, but I don't see Green Bay losing by seven, so we're taking what the bookies give us.
MORE NFL WEEK 12: Power Rankings
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 12
Vikings (-145) vs. Patriots
I detailed this game in a full betting preview on Tuesday, and here's the synopsis: Minnesota just got embarrassed by Dallas and will be chomping at the bit to get back in the win column. The Pats might be the most fortunate 6-4 team, as they haven't defeated one playoff contender or stud QB. New England also relies far too much on its defense to be able to outduel Kirk Cousins and his elite batch of skill players. We totally recognize that Bill Belichick has an innate ability to neutralize squads' best players, but if the Patriots contain Justin Jefferson, they will likely be opening up holes for Dalvin Cook or T.J. Hockenson. Minnesota's underrated front-seven also should feast on Mac Jones and New England's struggling offensive line, as Jones has taken 5.3 sacks per game over the Pats' past three. Go with the favorites here.
Broncos (-120) at Panthers
We might be going insane for recommending Russell Wilson and the Broncos again, but this one sure feels like a good bet. Denver finally trimmed the dead weight known as Melvin Gordon off its roster and will now go with veteran Latavius Murray as its primary back. Murray knows what to do with the rock and doesn't cough it up at the goal line every other game like MG3. Maybe first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett will let Russ cook, too. The nine-time Pro Bowler has enjoyed plenty of success moving the chains between the 20s, but Denver's play-calling in the red zone has been atrocious. Sam Darnold and Carolina should serve as remedies for some of the Broncos' many problems. If Wilson and company can't pull this one off, I'm out on them for the rest of the year.
Seahawks (-190) vs. Raiders
While the Raiders were barely squeaking by the Broncos in overtime last week, the Seahawks were enjoying a week off to prep for a Week 12 visit from Vegas. It's hard to believe in the Raiders with Josh McDaniels as head coach or Derek Carr under center. We can't put our chips down on a team that has averaged 15.5 points per game over the past month and has the fewest takeaways in the NFL. Pete Carroll has done a fantastic job with this Seahawks team — Geno Smith is a borderline MVP candidate, wideouts Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf have played like Pro Bowlers, and running back Kenneth Walker III is the frontrunner for Rookie of the Year. Oh, and don't forget about Seattle's underrated defense, which has held four of its past five opponents to 21 points or fewer. The Raiders' tank rolls on.
Best NFL over/under bets Week 12
Bengals at Titans: OVER 43.5 (-110)
We have plenty to look forward to with this game, as Joe Burrow alluded to stud wideout Ja'Marr Chase (hip) returning this weekend. After The Bengals are the No. 3 scoring offense in the NFL, and that's with Chase missing three games. Titans rookie receiver Treylon Burks enjoyed a breakout Week 11, we can expect a decent passing attack on both sides. Cincinnati has also been mediocre at stopping the run, so Derrick Henry should see massive carries as usual. Samaje Perine proved to Zac Taylor and the Bengals coaching staff that he can step up if Joe Mixon (concussion) misses more time, so neither offense should be completely one-dimensional. I'm taking Cincy -2.5 and the OVER.
Bears at Jets: UNDER 38.5
We usually don't bet the UNDER when it creeps below 40 points, but we can't resist with a potential matchup of Mike White vs. Trevor Siemian. The Justin Fields craze was fun while it lasted, but we don't expect it to continue with the second-year QB nursing a dislocated left shoulder. Whoever starts for Chicago will have to contend with stud rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner and Robert Saleh's defense salivating like my daughter over the leftover Halloween candy. This one has 20-13 written all over it.
Best NFL player prop bets Week 12
Bills at Lions: Gabriel Davis OVER 58.5 receiving yards (-115)
Davis has 11 catches for 161 yards over Buffalo's past two games, and the Lions have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards in the NFL this season. Josh Allen's elbow looked fine last week when Buffalo played a "home game" at Ford Field due to the seven feet of snow back home in Buffalo. I'll happily take Allen and Davis connecting for 59-plus yards in their encore trip to Motown.
Giants at Cowboys: Daniel Jones OVER 0.5 interceptions (-130)
The Giants' offensive line is hurting, Wan'Dale Robinson just hit the IR, rookie tight end/security blanket Daniel Bellinger has a fractured eye socket, and Jones is 1-5 lifetime against Dallas with three TDs and three interceptions. There's no doubt the Cowboys' defense is elite after they made an 8-1 Vikings squad look like junior varsity kids, so only one pick would be a mild success for the oft-erratic Jones.
Vikings vs. Patriots: T.J. Hockenson anytime TD (+138)
Bill Belichick and the Pats famously try to remove the strongest link from the opponent's offense each week, and this week that strong link is quite obviously Justin Jefferson. Dallas limited him last week and devoured Minnesota's souls in a 40-3 laugher. Expect New England to target Kirk Cousins in the pocket and double Jefferson early and often, leaving Hock open up the middle throughout the game. The Pats have actually been quite susceptible to tight ends in the red zone, allowing seven TDs to the position (tied for second-most in the NFL). Hock it up and lock it in!