Can Michigan make the NCAA Tournament? Breaking down Wolverines' March Madness odds for 2022

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Michigan may reach the NCAA tournament after all.

The Wolverines, who were a No. 1 seed last year, was ranked No. 6 in the preseason thanks to the return of second-team All-Big Ten big man Hunter Dickinson and the addition of two five-star freshmen. But the team was quickly humbled early this year, and it has spent much of the season on the March Madness bubble. An early-season loss to Seton Hall and a blowout loss to Arizona left people wondering where Michigan basketball was headed this season. But a late-season push has the odds looking good for a Michigan return to March Madness.

Under interim coach Phil Martelli, Michigan has beaten Michigan State and Ohio State in the last week. Martelli took over after Howard was suspended for the remainder of the regular season for grabbing Wisconsin coach Greg Gard by the collar and hitting an opposing assistant coach in the head after a loss to Wisconsin in February. Since then, Michigan is 3-2, having dropped games to Illinois and Iowa.

MORE: SN's latest projected NCAA tourney bracket

Ultimately, it looks like Michigan may have punched its ticket to the dance with a 75-69 win at Ohio State on Sunday, but stranger things have certainly happened than seeing a 17-13 team with an 11-9 conference record getting the cold shoulder.

Michigan and the Big Ten Tournament

Michigan will have a difficult path through the Big Ten Tournament. The Wolverines, seeded eighth, will play ninth-seeded Indiana on Thursday. The winner of that game plays Big Ten co-champion and No. 1 seed Illinois on Friday, a difficult back-to-back.

Dickinson missed Sunday's game against the Buckeyes with a stomach bug, so he ostensibly should be back by Thursday's tip-off. 

Michigan beat Indiana 80-62 in January. That effort was spear-headed by Dickinson, who had 25 points and nine rebounds in 33 minutes. Indiana shot under 40 percent in that game, with Michigan out-rebounding the Hoosiers 36-26. Against Illinois, Michigan is 0-2 with a combined point differential of -23. Center Kofi Cockburn was a major contributing factors in both of those wins for the Illini.

Michigan's strength of victory 

Michigan is 5-9 against Quadrant 1 opponents, having beaten San Diego State, Indiana, Purdue, Iowa, and Ohio State. Indiana, Iowa, and Ohio State were all road victories. Michigan is also just 3-3 against Quadrant 2 opponents, with wins against UNLV, Penn State, and Michigan State.

Michigan's weak spots

The Wolverines' worst loss of the season came against Minnesota, which heads into the Big Ten tournament ranked last in the conference. It's Michigan's only loss against a Quadrant 3 or 4 team, but it looms large as a conference loss. Michigan's .500 record against Quadrant 2 teams also casts a shadow, with losses to Seton Hall, UCF, and Rutgers.

Michigan's KenPom, RPI, SOS and quadrants

— KenPom: Michigan is No. 31 in the latest KenPom rankings.

— RPI: Michigan ranks No. 40 in the latest RPI standings.

— Strength of schedule: Michigan is No. 4 in the latest SOS rankings and No. 40 in strength of record.

— Quadrants: Michigan is 5-9 in Quadrant 1 games, 8-12 against Quads 1 and 2 combined. The Wolverines have one loss in Quad 3. 

How Michigan makes March Madness

It's very likely that Michigan has already punched its ticket to March Madness with its wins over Michigan State and Ohio State last week. A big win over a ranked opponent without Dickinson on the road to close out the season is absolutely a resume pumper.

The bigger question at this point is whether or not Michigan is a First Four team. It seems likely that it will be should it lose to Indiana on Thursday, whereas a win could push it to a high double-digit seed (No. 10 or No. 11).

However, at this point, Michigan appears to have proved itself enough for a tournament berth. Winning three of five to close out the season is no mean feat. The committee may want to see if Michigan can replicate the UCLA team that knocked it out last year and make a run as a double-digit seed.

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Kevin Skiver is a content producer at The Sporting News