Colorado State or Michigan? How to pick the 6 vs. 11 matchup in 2022 March Madness bracket

Much has already been made of Michigan getting a No. 11 seed in this year's NCAA Tournament, but the Wolverines are an underdog favorite against No. 6 Colorado State in the first round.

While some of that may be getting propelled by name recognition, Michigan is a strange case this year, particularly with its coach returning the bench. The Rams, however, aren't looking to be treated like a lesser six-seed. Led by NBA prospect David Roddy, there's a lot to like about CSU.

With a 14-4 conference record and a 25-5 overall mark, Colorado State had one thing Michigan lacked all season: Consistency.

The Rams didn't suffer any major losing streaks or stretches of alternating wins, they took care of business when they had to. Michigan, meanwhile, played one of the hardest schedules in the country, and the record (17-14) reflected that. The Wolverines were top-10 in the country by just about any measurement of schedule strength, and as such, Michigan never truly found a groove this year.

Wins against Michigan State and Ohio State as the season wound down are ultimately what got Michigan this berth, but there are people who are going to find it hard to bet against the Wolverines against a Mountain West opponent.

Michigan will be without guard DeVante' Jones for the opener, after he took an elbow to the face in practice that resulted in a concussion. Jones averaged 10.7 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists this season. His absence leaves a hole in the Michigan backcourt to guard talented scorer Isaiah Stevens from Colorado State.

Here's what to know about these two teams heading in:

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No. 6 Colorado State vs. No. 11 Michigan odds

Michigan is one of the few double-digit seeds being favored against a higher-ranked opponent, though whether that's due to matchup or popularity is hard to divine. The spread as of Monday is just -2.5, according to Sports Interaction, so Vegas is pinning this game as close to a coin flip.

If Michigan wants to make a deep run this year, it has to follow in the footsteps of the team that knocked it out last season. No. 11 UCLA defeated No. 6 BYU last year, and that included a First Four matchup.

• Odds: Michigan (-2.5)
• Date: Thursday, March 17
• Time: 12:15 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Arena: Gainbridge Field House -- Indianapolis, Indiana

Colorado State (25-5, 14-4 Mountain West)

Make no mistake: CSU deserves to be here. Colorado State is a team with some NBA talent and a resume with a lot to like. CSU had a winning record against every quadrant this season, a top 30 NET, and a KenPom just outside the top 30. This is a tough draw for the Rams, as they have to head to Indianapolis to play the midwestern Wolverines. If Colorado State can keep this game in the half court and limit the number of possessions for both sides, it has a good chance to win. Otherwise, this game could spell trouble for Colorado State.

• NET ranking: 28
• KenPom ranking: 31
• Quad 1 record: 5-3
• Quad 2 record: 8-1
• Quad 3 record: 3-1
• Quad 4 record: 8-0
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 21
• Defensive efficiency: 138

Key players

David Roddy (6-foot-5, 250-pound, junior forward): 19.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.8 apg

Isaiah Stevens (6-foot, 180-pound, junior guard): 14.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.8 apg

Michigan (17-14, 11-9 Big Ten)

The Wolverines are one of the more polarizing teams in this tournament, and they feel like favorites in this game in more ways than the spread. Juwan Howard is back on the bench after his suspension, and Hunter Dickinson is the X-factor for the Wolverines. He's going up against a team that does not rebound well, so Michigan is turning to him for a big game.

Any way you slice it, however, Michigan is a painfully inconsistent team. As easy as it is to cite schedule difficulty, the Wolverines didn't win three straight games a single time this year. That trend will have to break if Michigan is going to prove the doubters wrong and make any kind of run.

• NET ranking: 34
• KenPom ranking: 33
• Quad 1 record: 5-10
• Quad 2 record: 3-3
• Quad 3 record: 6-1
• Quad 4 record: 3-0
• Offensive efficiency ranking: 48
• Defensive efficiency: 231

Key players

Hunter Dickinson (7-foot-1, 260-pound, sophomore center): 18.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.2 apg

Eli Brooks (6-foot-1, 185-pound, graduate guard): 12.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.8 apg

Colorado State vs. Michigan prediction

Playing Michigan was a terrible reward for the season Colorado State had. CSU's slow, half-court-heavy game favors Michigan's ability to outrebound most opponents, which should be a concern for the Rams. Colorado State will have to jump ahead early to ultimately have a shot, as if they fall behind they don't play at a pace that's conducive to comebacks.

With that in mind, it's hard to go against common thought and pick against Michigan in this game. Michigan is coming off a loss, which actually favors the Wolverines, and it's playing within driving distance of Ann Arbor. If momentum starts to go Michigan's way, it will hard for Colorado State to take it back.

For more insight on this and every matchup, check out the TeamRankings Predictor Tool below. TeamRankings subscribers also receive access to customized, data-driven picks for their bracket pools.

HISTORY OF UPSETS BY SEED:
15 vs. 2 | 14 vs. 3 | 13 vs. 4 | 12 vs. 5

History of 6 vs. 11 matchups in NCAA Tournament

The 11 seed has begun to replace the 12 seed as a darling upset pick, but No. 6 still holds a 90-54 record in the past 35 years. While that balance has begun to shift, this kind of matchup is why: 11 seeds can sometimes be successful teams with buzzsaw schedules, whereas 6 seeds can occasionally be situations where the committee didn't necessarily know what to do with a team.

Last season, No. 11 UCLA put together a Final Four run, which featured a win over Michigan. The Wolverines are looking to give the historical cycle a quick turnaround this year.

Below, find the instances in which 11 seeds have enjoyed success over 6 seeds in the last five tournaments.