The two most coveted basketball prospects not currently in the NBA will not play NCAA Division I basketball this season.
It would have been nice to have Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson in the 2023 NCAA tournament. But being totally honest, hardly anyone has seen those guys and hardly anyone will until next year‘s NBA summer league. But we’ve all seen Armando Bacot. We’ve all seen Oscar Tshiebwe. and there will be plenty of exciting new prospects we haven’t seen who will become plenty familiar by the time we all gather in Houston to decide the 2022 NCAA championship.
MORE: Expanding March Madness would be NCAA's biggest mistake yet
Don’t be surprised at all if Oscar and the rest of John Calipari‘s Wildcats are leading the charge toward that trophy.
College Basketball Rankings 2022-23
1. Kentucky
Coach: John Calipari
Key returnees: C Oscar Tshiebwe, PG Sahvir Wheeler, PF Jacob Toppin
Key additions: PG Cason Wallace, SG Antonio Reeves, SF Chris Livingston
2022 finish: 26-8, NCAA first round
Why they’re here: The difference between the Wildcats and their elite competition for the NCAA championship comes down to two UK advantages: raw talent and defensive potential. With its length, bounce and depth, Kentucky has the ability to become a dynamic, oppressive defensive team without sacrificing too much of what it might do on offense. The addition of Wallace gives UK the opportunity to attack from multiple directions and, if someone’s plus-sized point guard presents a defensive issue for Wheeler, move to a bigger lineup. Don’t forget the Cats also get back shooter CJ Frederick, who missed the chance to help last year’s team from its premature demise but now might be an asset to a team better positioned to win a title.
2. North Carolina
Coach: Hubert Davis
Key returnees: C Amando Bacot, SF Leaky Black, SG Caleb Love, PG RJ Davis
Key additions: PF Pete Nance, SF Tyler Nickel, C Jalen Washington
2022 finish: 29-10, NCAA runner-up
Why they’re here: The Tar Heels could just as easily be at the top of this list, and have been for many others. It would be less surprising if they won it than any other team in Division I. The four returning starters proved what they’re capable of accomplishing with their formidable run to the NCAA championship game and in their memorable battle with Kansas. Others pursuing the title need to make dramatic improvements in order to manuever into the picture; Carolina might only need to avoid a decline. And the Heels probably will be much improved, with Bacot capable of becoming a significant scorer and Love owning all the qualities to become a star -- save, to date, consistency. You know who was the last team to return from losing in the final to win it the next year? That’s right: North Carolina, 2017. That’s the only time it happened this century.
3. Gonzaga
Coach: Mark Few
Key returnees: C Drew Timme, SF Julian Strawther, PG Rasir Bolton
Key additions: SG Malachi Smith, C Efton Reid, PF Braden Huff
2022 finish: 28-4, NCAA Sweet 16
Why they’re here: Timme’s decision to return to rather than pursue professional opportunities gives the Zags a player who can get 25 any night, and very well could get 25 every night this season. The more they feed Timme and incorporate his wide variety of offensive moves, the more likely that will elevate the rest of an intriguing roster. The key to this team becoming extraordinary, though, might be Smith making a successful transition from Chattanooga, where he averaged nearly 20 points per game.
4. Houston
Coach: Kelvin Sampson
Key returnees: SG Marcus Sasser, PG Jamal Shead, SG Tramon Mark
Key additions: PF Jarace Walker, SF Terrance Arceneaux
2022 finish: 32-6, NCAA Elite Eight
Why they’re here: These Cougars are one of the few teams in college basketball to lose their leading scorer and return their leading scorer at the same time. Here’s how that worked: Sasser was the Cougars’ most dangerous weapon and first option for a dozen games, averaging 17.7 points until he was lost for the year with an injury. Kyler Edwards never became the same threat, but he did enough to help the Cougars come within a few minutes of a second straight Final Four. The Sasser-Shead-Mark backcourt might be the best in Division I. They’ll need Walker to be instantly special to challenge for the Final Four again.
5. UCLA
Coach: Mick Cronin
Key returnees: SF Jaime Jaquez, PG Tyger Campbell, SF Jaylen Clark
Key additions: SG Amari Bailey, PF Adem Bona, SF Abramo Canka
2022 finish: 27-8, NCAA Sweet 16
Why they’re here: This team will not be as deep as last year’s Bruins, but that’s not necessarily a detriment. It can be a chore for a coach to try to find minutes for as many capable players as UCLA had last year, including a first-round pick in Peyton Watson who only fit onto the floor for 13 minutes a game. And neither was it easy to find an offensive rhythm with so many players who believed themselves capable of being a primary option. This team will revolve around Campbell’s leadership and Jaquez’ toughness, with Bailey more than capable of turning that into a 1-2 punch.
6. Baylor
Coach: Scott Drew
Key returnees: PG L.J. Cryer, SG Adam Flagler, C Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchoua
Key additions: SG Keyonte George, PF Josh Ojianwuna, PF Caleb Lohner, F Jalen Bridges
2022 finish: 27-7, NCAA second round.
Why they’re here: With the roster built as it is, this does not – on paper – appear to be a squad ideally suited to play elite defense. You’re looking at three starters on the perimeter who don’t hit 6-5, and that is not usually part of the recipe for a shutdown D. But the past several packs of Bears have been extraordinary in that department. It’ll be better if Tchamwa-Tchatchoua can return to the court sooner rather than later after his devastating knee injury last winter, but veteran center Flo Thamba – he started in the 2021 national title game – will hold down the inside in the meantime. And, wow, this team is going to score. George is a natural bucket-getter, and his perimeter partners are both capable of big numbers.
7. Indiana
Coach: Mike Woodson
Key returnees: PF Trayce Jackson-Davis, C Race Thompson, PG Xavier Johnson
Key additions: SG Jalen Hood-Schifino, PF Malik Reneau
2022 finish: 21-14, NCAA first round
Why they’re here: Jackson-Davis is a terrific place to start. He scores, rebounds and defends, and he’s the sort of leader any coach would want on his side. And his sidekick, Thompson, is as tough as they come and has worked diligently to expand his game. It would have been nice if IU’s excellent recruiting class included one pure perimeter shooter. The Hoosiers have a variety of capable wing players who have proven they can do a lot of positive things, but not one that has shown to be a shooter who can hit a high percentage on reasonable volume. What matters most, though, is that Johnson prove to be a reliable presence on and off the court. He was suspended for a curfew violation last February and followed that up two months later with an arrest for reckless driving. It’s not easy to win big if the guy who has the ball is unreliable.
MORE: Jackson-Davis ready to go out a winner
8. Duke
Coach: Jon Scheyer
Key returnees: PG Jeremy Roach (above)
Key additions: C Dereck Lively, C Kyle Filipowski, PG Tyrese Proctor, SF Dariq Whitehead
2022 finish: 32-7, NCAA Final Four
Why they’re here: One of the things that is most appealing about this gifted group is that Roach is back to run the show. It’s funny how a few weeks of basketball can alter one’s perceptions, but maybe not so surprising when that basketball is played in the NCAA Tournament. Point guard was considered a weak spot in last year’s rotation, and even Mike Krzyzewski tinkered with other options than Roach during the season. In March, though, Roach excelled and helped drive a Final Four finish. The young talents who’ll accompany him on this journey will be fortunate to have him as a guide.
9. Arkansas
Coach: Eric Musselman
Key returnees: G Davonte Davis
Key additions: PG Nick Smith, C Makhel Mitchell, PF Makhi Mitchell, PG Anthony Black, SF Jordan Walsh, SG Ricky Council
2022 finish: 32-7, NCAA Elite Eight
Why they’re here: Pretty much the entire team flew home from last year’s West Region loss to Duke and flew straight out of the Razorbacks’ program. Some of us thought C Jaylin Williams could become a first-round prospect and All-American with another season, but he chose to become an immediate pro through the second round. At 24, star PG JD Notae went undrafted and now is playing in Greece. But the Muss Bus was loaded on its way into Fayetteville, as well. He’ll have more coaching to do than almost anyone, but a whole lot to work with as Arkansas begins its next journey.
10. Kansas
Coach: Bill Self
Key returnees: PF Jalen Wilson, PG Dujuan Harris, PF Zach Clemence
Key additions: SF Gradey Dick, C Ernest Udeh, SF MJ Rice, SG Kevin McCullar
2022 finish: 34-6, NCAA champion
Why they’re here: Even with two terrific starters from last year’s champs in Wilson and Harris, this does not immediately appear to be the most imposing roster Kansas ever has fielded. But if you bet $20 on the Jayhawks every time it felt safe to make that statement, you’d have a lot more than $20. The average KenPom finish for Kansas over the past decade is No. 9, with seven top-10 finishes. Self won it all last year with a player almost no big-time programs wanted (Ochai Agbaji) and another almost no KU fans wanted to keep (David McCormack). Whatever the best possible team is that can be fashioned from the 2022-23 Jayhawks roster, Self will make that happen.
11. Creighton
Coach: Greg McDermott
Key players: C Ryan Kalkbrenner, PG Ryan Nembhard, PF Arthur Kaluma, SG Baylor Scheierman, SG Trey Alexander
2022 finish: 23-12, NCAA second round
12. Oregon
Coach: Dana Altman
Key players: C N’Faly Dante, G Will Richardson, PF Quincy Guerrier, C Nathan Bittle, F Eric Williams, C Kel’el Ware, SG Jermaine Couisnard
2022 finish: 20-15
13. Virginia
Coach: Tony Bennett
Key players: PF Jayden Gardner, PG Kihei Clark, SG Reece Beekman, SG Armaan Franklin, PF Ben Vander Plas, PF Kadin Shedrick
2022 finish: 21-14
14. Texas
Coach: Chris Beard
Key players: PG Marcus Carr, PF TImmy Allen, PF Dylan Disu, PG Tyrese Hunter, SG Arterio Morris, SG Sir'Jabari Rice
2022 finish: 22-12, NCAA second round
15. Tennessee
Coach: Rick Barnes
Key players: PG Zakai Ziegler, SG Santiago Vescovi, SF Josiah Jordan-James, PF Olivier Nkamhoua, C Uros Plavsic, SF Julian Phillips, PG Tyreke Key
2022 finish: 27-8, NCAA second round
16. Purdue
Coach: Matt Painter
Key players: C Zach Edey, PF Mason Gillis, SF Brandon Newman, PF Caleb Furst, G Ethan Morton, SF Trey Kaufman-Renn, PG Braden Smith, G Fletcher Loyer
2022 finish: 29-8, NCAA Sweet 16
17. TCU
Coach: Jamie Dixon
Key players: PG Mike Miles, SG Damion Baugh, SF Chuck O’Bannon, C Eddie Lampkin, SF Micah Peavy
2022 finish: 21-13, NCAA second round
MORE: NCAA needs to go easy on Damion Baugh
18. Auburn
Coach: Bruce Pearl
Key players: PG Wendell Green, G K.D. Johnson, SG Allen Flanigan, PG Zep Jasper, PF Johnni Broome, C Yohan Traore, SF Chance Westry, PF Jaylin Williams
2022 finish: 28-6, NCAA second round
19. Dayton
Coach: Anthony Grant
Key players: PF DaRon Holmes, PF Toumani Camara, PG Malachi Smith, SG Kobe Elvis, SF Koby Brea, SF R.J. Blakney, PF Mustapha Amzil
2022 finish: 24-11
20. Illinois
Coach: Brad Underwood
Key players: PF Coleman Hawkins, SF RJ Melendez, SG Terrence Shannon, PF Matthew Mayer, PG Skyy Clark, PF Ty Rodgers
2022 finish: 23-10, NCAA second round
21. Michigan
Coach: Juwan Howard
Key players: C Hunter Dickinson, SF Terrance Williams, SG Joey Baker, SG Jace Howard, SF Jett Howard, PG Jaelin Llewellyn, C Tarris Reed
2022 finish: 19-15, NCAA Sweet 16
22. Arizona
Coach: Tommy Lloyd
Key players: PG Kerr Krisa, PF Azoulas Tubelis, G Courtney Ramey, SG Pelle Larsson, C Oumar Ballo, SF Cedric Henderson.
2022 finish: 33-4, NCAA Sweet 16
23. Alabama
Coach: Nate Oats
Key players: PG Jahvon Quinerly, PF Noah Gurley, C Charles Bediako, F Darius Miles, SF Brandon Miller, PG Jaden Bradley, SG Rylan Griffen, G Mark Sears,
2022 finish: 19-14, NCAA first round
24. Villanova
Coach: Kyle Neptune
Key players: SG Justin Moore, SG Caleb Daniels, PF Eric Dixon, SF Brandon Slater, SF Cam Whitmore, G Mark Armstrong
2022 finish: 30-8, NCAA Final Four
25. Michigan State
Coach: Tom Izzo
Key players: SF Malik Hall, C Mady Sissoko, PG Tyson Walker, PG A.J. Hoggard, PF Joey Hauser, PF Jaxon Kohler
2022 finish: 23-13, NCAA second round