With the 2024 NBA trade deadline now in the Raptors' rearview, it's time to shift the focus forward. Of course, to look forward, it's important to first assess things in their current state.
Toronto may not have done what was expected at the trade deadline but it was one of the NBA's most active teams, executing two separate deals involving seven players and draft capital to bring the future into clearer focus.
Gone are Kira Lewis Jr., Otto Porter Jr., Dennis Schröder and Thaddeus Young, opening the door for Ochai Agbaji and Kelly Olynyk to join the franchise. More notably, the Raptors held onto Bruce Brown Jr., who was reportedly coveted by several contending teams.
Now that stock has been taken of what Toronto did — and didn't — do, here's what's next.
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What's next for the Raptors following 2024 trade deadline?
First off, the remainder of the regular season.
The Raptors, who sit at 18-33 after the deadline, have 31 regular-season games remaining and sit in a curious position.
It's no secret that Toronto has been struggling, but it is still within five games of the Eastern Conference's final Play-In Tournament spot. The season isn't necessarily lost just yet but the Raptors have been trending downward, going 10-25 after an 8-8 start to the season.
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Building around Scottie Barnes
Not all is bad, as Scottie Barnes has been named an All-Star for the first time. Barnes alone isn't likely enough to turn this season around, but his standing as a 22-year-old All-Star is enough to be the centerpiece of a rebuild.
A stark shift toward a youth movement is a reminder of just how much the franchise believes in Barnes, and the roster makeup illustrates just that. Including Barnes, Toronto has 10 players aged 25 or younger, a group that includes Agbaji, RJ Barrett, Gradey Dick, Jordan Nwora, Immanuel Quickley and Gary Trent Jr.
The commitment to Barnes as Toronto's franchise player means a major focus for the season's final stretch will consist of him adjusting to that role. His numbers are consistent with being an All-Star but the next leap will consist of a specific command of the game.
Of course, building around a young player intensifies in June, as the NBA Draft falls at the month's end.
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The NBA Draft
The final stretch of the season is crucial for Toronto, as it owes a top-six protected first-round pick to San Antonio as part of last season's deal for Jakob Poeltl.
If the season ended today, the Raptors would have a 34.5 percent chance of keeping their pick while there is a 65.5 percent chance that it would be conveyed to the Spurs.
Among teams with worse records than Toronto are Charlotte, Detroit, Portland, San Antonio and Washington while Memphis' record is nearly identical.
The Raptors' curious position is a product of the fact that they are essentially just as close to qualifying for the postseason as they are to retaining their draft pick. Given the focus on the future, the draft pick could be of greater importance.
In addition to a pick that could land in the top five, Toronto owns Indiana's first-round pick, which could be another building block to address a need with a young player.
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Free agency and offseason trades
By parting ways with several high-earning veterans and acquiring several players on rookie-scale deals, the Raptors have significantly decreased their payroll.
As outlined by Sportsnet's Blake Murphy, Toronto will go into the offseason with just seven players on the books for $80.1 million — over $60 million under the projected salary cap of $141 million. In-house, Quickley is set to become a restricted free agent, Olynyk and Trent are among notable unrestricted free agents, and Brown has a team option worth $23.0 million next season.
Retaining Quickley and Olynyk appears to be in the plans while Trent's future with the franchise isn't as clear. Regardless of the decision regarding those two, Toronto will have the financial and roster flexibility to land quality talent.
Brown, who was in high demand at the deadline, should again command interest on the trade market, as will Chris Boucher, who has one year remaining on his contract following the 2023-24 season. The Raptors could part ways with one — or both — veterans.
Looming in the near future is a contract extension for Barnes, who, with an All-Star pedigree, is a max-contract caliber player. So, financial flexibility will allow the Raptors to retain key free agents, be a player in the free agent market and potentially give Barnes a max deal.
