LeBron James and the Lakers will be doing everything they can on Thursday night to avoid once again falling behind 3-0 against Denver.
No team in LeBron's 21 NBA seasons has quite dominated him like the 2021-2024 Nuggets. Soon-to-be three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the reigning champs have now beat Los Angeles 10 straight times, and Denver appears on the verge of mounting a sweep over the Lakers for the second-straight postseason.
MORE: Lakers' best option to stop slow down Jokic
What version of King James will we see in Game 3? Last year down 2-0, he scored 23 points on 19 shots to go along with 12 dimes. In Game 4 of that series, he took on a heavier scoring load, finishing with 40 points on 25 shots in a close loss.
Let's roll out our top LeBron James BetMGM player props for Game 3 of Lakers vs. Nuggets in the first round of the 2024 NBA Playoff, ranked in order of betting value and win probability.
LeBron James prop bet picks, ranked
LeBron James points – OVER 25.5 (-115)
LeBron has always been incredible when facing elimination — and let's face it, this Game 3 might as well be an elimination game. Teams that have fallen behind 3-0 in playoff series have gone 0-151 in their best-of-seven series. You simply cannot come back from an 0-3 deficit.
King James' average in elimination games over his illustrious career: 33.7 points per game. His shooting splits: 49.2/36.3/72.3. His average shots taken in elimination games: 24.3. These are all great signs for OVER bettors.
In the 23 games in which LeBron took 20-plus shots this season, he averaged 30.6 points per game. We think he takes at least 20 shots, scores at least 30, and blows the over/under right out of the proverbial water.
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LeBron James points + assists — OVER 34.5 (-115)
You can't go wrong with this prop, as James remains one of the best passers in the NBA, and we already project him to score around 30 points so he will only need a handful of assists to hit this OVER.
Bron has 65 total assists over the Lakers' past six games (10.8 APG), so something tells us he will easily notch the OVER on this stat-combo prop. He has 29 combined dimes (rhymes!) across L.A.'s past three meetings with Denver.
MORE: LeBron among Steph Noh's All-NBA picks
LeBron James double-double (-125)
This is easy-peasy, lemon-squeezy. LeBron has double-doubles in two of L.A.'s past three games and four of the past six, and this is the Lakers' biggest game of the entire 2023-24 campaign.
James always racks up more dimes at home (8.8 APG), and he has averaged 10.7 rebounds per game when facing elimination. He'll hit this one way or another.
LeBron James triple-double (+575)
We're a little more ambivalent about betting this prop, but it's also hard to resist putting a little lotto-ticket wager since the odds offer up such a juicy payout. A winning $18 ticket here nets us over $103 profit, and it would make for a heck of a fun rooting interest throughout the night without setting us back too much financially if we come up short.
James last put up a triple-double against the Pelicans in the Play-In Tournament just last week, putting up 28 points, a whopping 17 assists, and 11 rebounds. With the Lakers' backs against the wall, we're jumping headfirst into this somewhat-volatile prop and hoping we come out the other side with a sweet cash windfall.
MORE: Playoff power rankings based on odds
LeBron James blocks — OVER 0.5 (+110)
Plus odds on a Bron playoff prop at home with the Lakers down 2-0!? Yeah, sign us up. King James has put together some of his biggest highlight-reel rejections in the postseason, and he appears to have more energy during this playoff run than when the Lakers got swept by the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals last year. One chase-down block and we've doubled our money — let's go!
LeBron James turnovers — OVER 3.5 (-150)
We expect LeBron to go over this mark win or lose, as he has such a high usage rate, creates for others so often, and takes matters into his own hands in the clutch of close and/or must-win games. He has 21 turnovers over his past four games, so four seems like a fairly easy mark to hit.
LeBron James three-pointers — 3+ (+155)
We took to the alternate three-pointer prop board to find this juicy plus-odds bet. LeBron has drilled three three-pointers in two straight games and three of the Lakers' past four, and we already told you he's going to be kicking things into high gear on Thursday evening.
This isn't a slam dunk by any means, but the +155 odds make us feel pretty good about a modest wager in a game we're already projecting him to score 30-plus points. Let's have some fun!
