When the Bills travel to face the Patriots to open Week 13 on "Thursday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video), offense will be at a premium on a cold, clear night. That 43.5 expected point total from Vegas might give fantasy football owners some pause with their first start 'em, sit 'em decisions of the week.
The Patriots come in hurting with running back Damien Harris (thigh) not playing and two wide receivers, Jakobi Meyers (shoulder) and DeVante Parker (knee), also battling injuries but expected to suit up. Mac Jones is coming off a hot Thursday night performance against the Vikings, but this should go back to being a run-heavy approach featuring Rhamondre Stevenson.
The Bills don't have any major offensive injury concerns of note to fantasy owners, but they will be without left tackle Dion Dawkins (ankle). Defensively, future Hall-of-Fame edge rusher Von Miller (knee) won't get a chance to go after Jones.
With all that in mind, here's breaking down the entire start 'em sit 'em picture for Thursday night, including a couple of DFS lineup suggestions for FanDuel and DraftKings single-game tournaments.
WEEK 13 FANTASY PICKS: Sleepers | Busts | Start 'em, sit 'em
Bills: Who to start or sit in fantasy football on Thursday night
Start: QB Josh Allen
Allen ascended back to QB1 status after his light-it-up performance against the Lions' putrid defense last week. He won't have a Thanksgiving-like feast outdoors in New England against Bill Belichick's defense, but keep in mind he went for 314 yards and three and 308 yards and five TDs in his past two matchups against the Pats, the latter coming in the playoffs. Look for a more modest 300 yards and two TDs with about 50 yards rushing that gets the job done nicely.
MORE TNF: DK lineup | FD lineup | Meyers update
Sit: RBs Devin Singletary and James Cook
The Patriots have the No. 9 run defense in the NFL. Allen will cut into the potential rushing from both backs, and there are more exploitable matchups through the air. Remember that the Patriots shut down James' older brother Dalvin last Thursday night.
WEEK 13 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Start: WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis
These guys should each find the end zone on the outside. Justin Jefferson just ripped the Patriots and Diggs will want to follow suit. Davis is due for either a big play or a TD -- perhaps both. They should be peppered with big target totals, as the slot will be quieter.
Sit: WR Isaiah McKenzie
Don't go chasing his fluky random explosion against the Lions, which came out of nowhere. Diggs and Davis will dominate plenty here, leaving little for McKenzie.
WEEK 13 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers
Sit: TE Dawson Knox
Knox is very TD-dependent, and he's not getting enough volume even in good spots. Don't chase the T.J. Hockenson game against the Patriots. Knox feels more like a bust than a limited boom.
WEEK 13 DFS LINEUPS: DraftKings | FanDuel
Start: K Tyler Bass
It's Thursday Night Live with Bass-o-matic. Only Justin Tucker has scored more kicker points in 2022.
WEEK 13 DFS: Best values | Best stacks
Start: Bills D/ST
They haven't been getting the job done of late because of their injuries, but they'll get to Mac Jones a few times with pressure and post a turnover or two with limited scoring from the Patriots.
Patriots: Who to start or sit in fantasy football on Thursday night
Sit: QB Mac Jones
Week 12 in Minnesota was Jones' first QB1 finish since Week 3 against Baltimore. Other than that, he's been buried near the bottom of QB2s. (Maybe he just produces against purple teams?) Don't force him in single-QB leagues.
Start: RB Rhamondre Stevenson
Stevenson has cracked the top 12 in half-point PPR scoring, and he should be featured more than usual with Damien Harris (thigh) hurting again. The Pats will ride him hard to wear down the Bills and control the clock to help keep Josh Allen off the field.
Sit: WRs Jakobi Meyers, DeVante Parker and Nelson Agholor
Meyers is one of the most overrated players in fantasy with mostly boring results. He's been out of WR3 territory (top 36) in three consecutive games and five of his nine games. Parker's ceiling is WR3. Agholor was a WR2 last week, meaning he'll go back to doing nothing this week. You can do better than tapping into this situation.
Sit: TE Hunter Henry
Henry finished as TE3 on the board for the second time this season, with the Vikings' performance in Week 12 mirroring his Week 6 game vs. the Browns. The Bills remain stingy in tight end coverage, though, so no thanks.
Start: K Nick Folk
The Folk hero status is real, as only Tucker and Bass have scored more points. Field-goal fest, anyone?
Sit: Patriots D/ST
They faced a good offense in Minnesota and were useless. They face a great one this week with limited chances for point-producing work.
Bills vs. Patriots: FanDuel single-game lineup
- MVP (1.5X): QB Josh Allen $17,500
- AnyFLEX: RB Rhamondre Stevenson $14,000
- AnyFLEX: WR Gabe Davis $11,000
- AnyFLEX: K Tyler Bass $9,000
- AnyFLEX: K Nick Folk $8,500
This worked out nicely. Go with the leaders of the Bills passing game and the Patriots' running game, plus a big-play WR and a couple of kickers. Boom.
Bills vs. Patriots: DraftKings Showdown lineup
- Captain (1.5X): QB Josh Allen $18,300
- FLEX: WR Stefon Diggs $11,600
- FLEX: RB Rhamondre Stevenson $10,400
- FLEX: Bills D/ST $5,200
- FLEX: K Tyler Bass $4,200
- FLEX: RB Reggie Gilliam $200
There are similar elements to FD in this DK mix, but here, Diggs and the Bills' D would make sense as reliables worth paying up for in this particular matchup. Gilliam is a cheap punt play looking for a short TD pass from Allen.