When LaMelo Ball was drafted with the second pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, it was a watershed moment for the NBL, finally proving that they could be the breeding ground of truly elite NBA prospects.
Of course, Ball was expected to be a high draft pick for much of his childhood, but the fact that he opted to come Down Under for his pre-draft year, and still maintain and further his status, spoke volumes about the legitimacy of the Australian league.
Joining Ball in this draft was fellow Next Star RJ Hampton, who was taken with the 24th pick by the Denver Nuggets.
A year later, this case was validated even further, with the Oklahoma City Thunder taking Josh Giddey with the sixth pick of the 2021 Draft; Giddey an Australian player who elected to join the NBL’s Next Star pathway in lieu of pursuing NCAA or other overseas opportunities.
Even in this year’s NBA draft, the NBL’s Next Star initiative saw another member drafted, this time Ousmane Dieng who was also taken by OKC.
Ousmane Dieng has looked like a potential lotto pick lately w/his shooting & positional size, but it’s his feel as a passer in the P&R that really makes your eyes pop. The patience, ability to read the whole floor, and make live dribble hits is impressive pic.twitter.com/aIs6Acc5ou
— NBA Draft Dude 🤙 (@CoreyTulaba) April 10, 2022
But for as many hits as the Next Stars had, there have been just as many misses, such as South East Melbourne’s Terry Armstrong, who amassed just 10 total minutes over his season with the Phoenix, or Tasmania’s Nikita Mikhailovskii, who saw only seven minutes of action before returning to Russia before the season’s end.
This is not even mentioning the calibre of talent that the Next Stars were not able to reel in, such as Australians Dyson Daniels and Tyrese Proctor, the first of whom signed with the G-League Ignite, the latter joining Duke University in the NCAA.
But one player who could prove to be an indictment on the Next Stars process is Mojave King, who played under the designation for two consecutive years at two different teams - Cairns and Adelaide - and has recently been announced as a new addition to the G-League Ignite next season, per ESPN’s Jonathan Givony.
Mojave King, a 20-year old draft prospect from Australia, has signed with the G League Ignite, his agent Daniel Moldovan told ESPN. King averaged 18 points, 3.3 assists per game in the New Zealand NBL this summer. He's yet another NBA Academy alumnus to join Ignite.
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) August 8, 2022
They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, and in the case of the NBL and the Next Stars, it wasn’t long until other organisations began to build out their own professional alternatives to college basketball, chief among them the NBA G-League’s team the G-League Ignite.
The NBL has already missed out on players who opted for what the G-League had to offer, players like Daniels and other top draft picks including GSW’s Jonathan Kuminga. But if Mojave King is able to be revitalised by the Ignite team, it will be a tough look for the league.
These optics are all key for prospects that the NBL wants to attract, but there is one name above all that the league is desperate to reel in: LeBron ‘Bronny’ James Jr.
The Athletic reported in early August that the NBL is one of Bronny’s pre-NBA options, as well as the NCAA, and the G-League Ignite.
#NBL24? 👀
— The NBL (@NBL) August 4, 2022
According to @TheAthletic's @joevardon, Australia could be a potential landing spot for Bronny James next year.
More at https://t.co/CawVeifcWe pic.twitter.com/p9nk0Ua6hC
The competition for Lebron’s son will be a full-on arms race, with the NBL extremely cognisant of the boom that LaMelo Ball brought to the league and Bronny being possibly one of the few humans that could create more hype than the eventual Charlotte Hornet.
This is where the NBL’s lost ground to the G-League Ignite and other professional pathways such as the Overtime Elite (OTE) could hurt them, as upcoming players feel the tides turning away from the Australian league.
Take the upcoming 2023 draft class for example. Obviously, a lot can change between now and June next year, but as it stands today, at least four of the projected top 10 will not be NCAA players; consensus number one pick Victor Wembanyama playing professionally for French team Metropolitans 92, guard Scoot Henderson expected to be the crown jewel of the G-League Ignite this year, and the Thompson twins - Amen and Ausuar - displaying their other-worldly athleticism for the OTE.
Guys, I tried to warn you, but the Thompson twins THROW DOWN. Both Amen and Ausar have had some nasty dunks already https://t.co/FyWdsnYBwD
— Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) July 17, 2022
In comparison, the NBL has signed just one legitimate draft prospect this year so far, Rayan Rupert joining the New Zealand Breakers, who is projected as a mid-to-late first-rounder.
Oui oui, the rumours are true. 18-year-old French' wunderkind' Rayan Rupert is joining the Sky Sport Breakers as our NBL23 Next Star. pic.twitter.com/RjMOB9z5w4
— Sky Sport New Zealand Breakers (@NZBreakers) June 10, 2022
Of the Next Stars from last season, Ariel Hukporti is the only real hope of being drafted, with ESPN currently having him as a late second-rounder.
Again, NBL free agency is not yet over, but there remain very few 2023 prospects who have not already committed to a team, with only two of ESPN’s projected top-30 players still undecided: Sidy Cissoko and Ousmane Ndiaye.
Yes, the NBL wants Bronny James, but that’s no surprise, everyone is eager to sign the son of the player many consider the greatest to ever touch a basketball.
What matters is not what the league wants, but what it can do, and if signing Bronny James is an arms race, right now the NBL is bringing a butter knife to a gun fight.
