The knockout round of the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament rolls on this evening, starting with the Bucks and Knicks in Milwaukee (11:30 a.m. AEDT). Both these teams have raced out to strong starts over the first quarter of the 2023-24 season, but Milwaukee enjoys a seven-game winning streak against its foes from Manhattan. Today we will break down the odds and best bets for this Eastern Conference clash, hopefully helping you win some IST cash.
Here's the low-down: the In-Season Tournament has reached Day 2 of the quarterfinal round, with just six teams remaining in the inaugural IST bracket. After the Pacers and Pelicans advanced last night, we have two games tonight to decide who plays in the semifinals on Thursday (basically the NBA version of the Final Four). Then, the two teams still standing at the end of the night on Thursday will face off Saturday evening to determine the first-ever In-Season Tournament champions.
Whether or not you liked the idea initially, you probably love the tourney by now if you're a true hoops fan. The action has been intense, with playoff-like atmospheres just weeks into the season. Tonight should be no different, with Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, and the 12-7 Knicks looking to play spoiler against Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and the 14-6 Bucks. This might be the best game of the round, with both squads at or near full strength and coming in red-hot (Milwaukee has won nine of its past 11 games, NY has won 10 of its past 13).
Will the Bucks stay hot at home and continue its dominant reign over the Knicks? Or, will New York punch Giannis and company in the mouth and mount a massive road upset en route to the semifinals? Let's get to our best bets for the Bucks-Knicks' NBA In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals matchups on Tuesday evening!
NBA In-Season Tournament best bets: Bucks vs. Knicks
All odds courtesy of TAB.
- Head-to-head: Bucks $1.48 | Knicks $2.70
- Line: Bucks -5 (-$1.92) | Knicks +5 ($1.92)
- Over/Under: O 229.5 ($1.92) | U 229.5 ($1.92)
To nobody's surprise, the red-hot Bucks enter the evening as five-point home favorites. Giannis, Dame, and friends have won eight games in a row at Fiserv Forum, and their only loss in Milwaukee came two days before Halloween against Atlanta. Since then, Lillard has gelled with first-year Bucks head coach Adrian Griffin and the Bucks' offense, Malik Beasley has found his way as a floor-spacer, and Khris Middleton seems to have kicked the rust off after a bumpy start to the season.
Knicks fans will say that oddsmakers should be giving their team more respect, as New York has also been pretty hot as of late. Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson just won back-to-back Eastern Conference Player of the Week honors, the first time a Knicks duo has accomplished such a feat since Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith did in 2012-13. Tom Thibodeau's squad has gone 10-3 over the past 30 days, even bagging wins in four of its past five road games.
However, the Bucks remain one of New York's Achilles heels. Milwaukee has knocked off the Knickerbockers in seven straight meetings, most recently on Nov. 3 at Fiserv (110-105). Giannis and Dame combined for 52/12/10 that night, and six different Bucks scored at least a dozen points. Randle, big man Mitchell Robinson, and utility forward Josh Hart struggled mightily in that game, combining to shoot 7-of-33 while racking up four fouls apiece.
Robinson has looked like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate some nights, but on other nights he looks like he should be riding the pine. He always seems to get exposed by the high screen-and-roll — or any kind of assignment outside of drop coverage — a weakness that the Dame-and-Giannis Bucks will likely continue to capitalize on tonight. And if the starting front court gets into foul trouble trying to contain Giannis, Brook Lopez, and former Knick Bobby Portis, backup Knicks big Isaiah Hartenstein will wind up getting even more exposed down low.
The other issue for New York will be scoring. The Knicks average just 110.2 points per away game, while Milwaukee ranks third in scoring on the season with 121.1 points per game (and 120.1 PPG at home). Randle has been terrible against the Bucks since the 2020-21 season, averaging 17.4 points per game on 35.5 percent shooting in that span. Far too often, he avoids Milwaukee's physical front court and settles for outside jumpers. Dating back to 2021, he has made just 10 of his past 53 three-point attempts against the Bucks (18.8%).
As cool as it would be to see New York get back onto a big-stage environment and contend for the NBA Cup in Las Vegas, we just don't see it happening. Milwaukee simply has too much offensive firepower, too much physical strength down low, and too much of a hold over Randle. The Bucks should once again dictate the pace, get the Knicks into foul trouble, and slowly break the spirit of their road foes with a continuous barrage of defensive rebounding, downhill offense, and inside-outside efficiency. We like the Bucks to punch their tickets to Vegas.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Bucks 125, Knicks 118 — The Bucks win and cover (-5) to advance to the semifinals in Las Vegas, while the game sails way OVER the total (229.5).
