FIBAWC Preview: Can Australia Overcome the Odds?

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Boasting one of the most rapidly developing programmes in the world in recent years, Australia is reaching a level of quality that few could have hoped for, even when the country’s talisman, Andrew Bogut, was selected as the first overall pick by the NBA’s Milwaukee Bucks in 2006.

Another Aussie was selected in the same spot 10 years later, and while Ben Simmons won’t be with the team when they land in China for the FIBA World Cup this year, both athletes represent the tip of an Australian iceberg powered by quality, hard-nosed players that deserve to be climbing up the global basketball ladder.

This year’s team is an assemblance of no nonsense, tough workers on the court. Comprising a mix of athletic youth, sharp shooting role players and veteran experience, Australia has the makings of an elite basketball team. Their road could potentially lead to a gold-medal match-up, but it will not be an easy one with several other hopeful countries standing in their way. But Australia has the talent to get there, and you wouldn’t want to bet against the team from down under.

To reach the World Cup, Australia went 10-2 for a reasonably comfortable qualification. The only losses were an entertaining one-point loss on a tough Japanese home court, and against a motivated Iranian team, while the Aussies fielded a weaker roster in the final game of the qualifying period and the nation’s spot in China was secure. 

Neither loss should give head coach Andrej Lemanis much concern, as the roster he is taking to the World Cup is very strong. However, the headlines in the Australian basketball media have been about who is not heading to China, rather than who is. 

Green and gold

One of the best young superstars in the NBA, Philadelphia 76ers’ Ben Simmons pulled out at a late stage, citing professional obligations. Naturalised citizen Thon Maker, of the Detroit Pistons, listed similar reasons for his withdrawal, while the Dallas Mavericks’ Ryan Broekhoff will be attending to his new born child, and Danté Exum is recovering from an injury. Additionally, the top scorer from the qualification stage, Mitchell Creek – who has bounced around NBA teams and their G League affiliates in recent years – is a surprise scratch for Lemanis.

That might make the Boomers look weaker on paper, but it doesn’t mean the roster will be much less competitive. Australia has a strong National Basketball League and while World Cup teams undoubtedly benefit from a star who can score, the strength of the national squad has been its toughness and its selfless team play.

Being led by Bogut helps. Despite being 34, the center has still been productive recently. With the Sydney Kings, he led the squad to a final four appearance in the NBL while picking up MVP honours. After that, he was hurried over to San Francisco to join the Golden State Warriors on a run to the NBA Finals. Bogut’s big body sets hard screens, he is one of the better passing big men and while the days of him regularly creating his own shot are fading, he can still finish strong and score from offensive rebounds. He averaged 11 and 11 in the NBL and he’ll probably add similar production for his country in China.

Bogut will be joined in the front court by Aaron Baynes, an NBA champion and a bruiser of a role player, who equally loves setting crushing picks and fighting for tough rebounds. He unfortunately became known as the player who was perpetually dunked on in the NBA for a while, but this was mostly due to his unflinching tenacity and willingness to challenge shots, often successfully. 

Andrew Bogut Australia FIBA

Jonah Bolden will represent Australia for the first time, but he won some fans during his stint with the Philadelphia 76ers last year due to his solid defensive play. He has previously won with Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Israeli League so understands what it takes to be a role player on a championship team. He will likely be the third or fourth string big, but he should get regular minutes, and be a useful presence if he can produce. 

One of the most well liked three-point shooters in the NBA at present is Joe Ingles. The way he joined the league won fans over, but what is keeping them on his side is the grit he plays with. His immediate veteran presence on the Utah Jazz as a tall, wing-like point guard, and the trash talk, has seen Ingles play an integral role in Utah becoming a contending presence in the NBA during the last two seasons.

Joe Ingles Australia FIBA

Ingles will probably handle a portion of ball handling responsibility, but the Boomers have a number of guards more than capable of taking on point duties. The first is Patty Mills. While the San Antonio Spurs leader isn’t the biggest player, he has good defensive instincts to avoid the pick and roll, and is feisty enough to cause problems for any country’s off-ball threat. On offense, Mills is deadly from the three-point line, hitting nearly 40% from the NBA distance last season. He can also handle the ball and is good at distributing, even if his short stature (6’0 on a good day) means he sometimes struggles to see over or power through strong defensive players.

Matthew Dellavedova adds a little more height to a similar position. Known among NBA circles as one of LeBron James’ toughest teammates on the Cleveland Cavaliers rosters, his offensive game isn’t necessarily the stuff of legend, but he has frustrated many opposing players. During his four years in the league, Dellavedova has shot 38% from three, which can provide a good release valve for this Australian team. For the national side, he led the team in assists per game in the qualification period.

Other names include the former NBL scoring champion Chris Goulding, athletic wing Xavier Cooks, All-NBL First team player from last season Nick Kay, young EuroLeague standout Jock Landale, plus Nathan Sobey and Cameron Gliddon, both of whom won Commonwealth Games gold with the team in 2018.

Group of death

When the World Cup draw took place, Group H was formed between Australia, Canada, Lithuania and Senegal. Pinned as the toughest group in the tournament, the task will only get more difficult even if Australia get through to the second round, because those that advance from the second round will likely face the best teams in the world long before the gold-medal game.

Australia is probably the favourite country to come out of the Group H, but anything can happen. Against Lithuania, the big man combination of Jonas Valančiūnas and Domantas Sabonis will not be easy to contain, even for the likes of Bogut and Baynes. Valančiūnas played with the Toronto Raptors for many years before being moved to the Memphis Grizzlies last season. He plays a big, bruising role on defense, but has shown flashes of good offense in the NBA that is more consistent under FIBA rules. At the 2014 World Cup, Lithuania finished fourth with Valančiūnas averaging 14 points and 8 rebounds. The following year in EuroBasket, he increased his point production to claim a silver medal, and in 2017’s European tournament, he managed nearly 16 and 12.

Jonas Valanciunas Andrew Bogut FIBA

When Sabonis was just 20, he featured in the Olympic Games and averaged 5 points and 4 rebounds, and was relied upon even less at EuroBasket the year before. But things have changed since, as Sabonis is becoming one of the NBA’s premier big men, so expect him and  Valančiūnas to cause problems for Australia.

Canada is missing some key players. It looked like the country was going to comprise the next generation of NBA stars, including this year’s top draft picks RJ Barratt and Brandon Clarke, along with the up-and-coming Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray, last season’s rookie sensation Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dwight Powell, and ‘veteran’ players like the Minnesota Timberwolves’ Andrew Wiggins and Tristan Thompson of the Cleveland Cavaliers – both of whom are well under 30. But late drop-outs, injuries and personal decisions mean that what looked like a tough ride for Australia has been made a little easier with regards to Canada, for this year, at least.

The North Americans still boast Cory Joseph, a solid defensive guard that can run an offense, and a lot of underrated talent like the Scrubb brothers. The team is coached by Nick Nurse, who is coming off winning the NBA Championship with the Toronto Raptors, so the roster will be well prepared.

While perhaps not on the tier of Australia, Lithuania or Canada at full strength, Senegal is arguably the best African nation at the World Cup, though the Nigerians and Angolans might have something to say about that. The country is no pushover, however, without the scoring of DeSagna Diop and Georgui Gieng this year at the World Cup (or Tacko Fall for that matter), the team will have to rely on others to pick up the load.

One player they can rely on is Mouhammad Faye. The power forward is a veteran of this national squad and can score well. His consistency has been called into question in the past, but with so few scoring threats on the team, his contributions will be important. Guards Louis Adams and Thierno Niang will be relied upon to control the games, but without scoring threats elsewhere on the court, the tough Australian backcourt should be able to pressure the Senegal ball handlers.

Patty Mills Australia FIBA

Australia should be confident in making the next round, where the country will likely face France, another nation from Group G, and a team they will have already beaten from their own group. There are no good bets when it comes to the FIBA Basketball World Cup, and whoever looks like they will be advancing to the quarterfinals will also be keeping one eye on what side of the bracket the USA falls.

It is too early to tell what kind of momentum this incarnation of USA Basketball will have, as the squad comprises talent that has seldom played together. While Australia might also be missing some players, the country is still a threat to win any game. So with the USA likely weakened, any other team with high hopes will have extra motivation, and if the Aussies can get past the States early in the tournament, you wouldn’t want to bet against them for winning the whole thing.

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