AFL Round 11 Betting Tips - Naarm, Brisbane win crucial clashes as Coleman Medal winner impresses

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Round 11 and the second week of Sir Doug Nicholls starts off with a belter on Friday night.

With their seasons on the line, Carlton travel to the SCG to take on Sydney, in a clash where both clubs have been disappointing in 2023

Naarm (Melbourne) and Walyalup (Fremantle) descend onto the MCG on Saturday afternoon while Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs set their map destinations north to TIO Stadium in the Northern Territory.

On Sunday, Richmond will be reeling the departure of senior coach Damien Hardwick but their attention will focus to the in-form Yartapuulti (Port Adelaide).

Brisbane head to Adelaide to face the Crows to round out the weekend in arguably the most intriguing game of the lot.

The Sporting News have put together our betting predictions for Round 11 below. 

Odds courtesy of Bluebet.

Last week, we scored four of our nine predictions.

Petracca and Martin didn't hit their marks, Jeremy Cameron kicked four behinds and no goals; Charlie Cameron and Toby Greene were one major short.

Sydney (12th) vs Carlton (11th) best bet

Sydney ended a four-game losing streak when they controversially defeated North Melbourne at the death last week.

Carlton, who's form isn't much better, have won one of their past six clashes and need to win away from home if they any chance to play finals.

Despite the Swans not producing anything near 2022's Grand Final appearance, Errol Gulden has been a standout player for John Longmire.

Gulden has been given more midfield time this year and hasn't wasted his opportunity, averaging just over 25 disposals, five marks, five tackles and four clearances a game.

His last month alone has seen personal bests of 37 and 39 possession games, while also finding ways to hit the scoreboard or set up teammates.

Regardless of Friday night's result, Gulden will put together another impressive performance.

Errol Gulden 30+ disposals - $2.50

St Kilda (5th) vs Hawthorn (16th) best bet

St Kilda's see-sawing efforts reared its head once again, with the club yet to win consecutive games since round four.

Their opponents, Hawthorn, denied a seventh consecutive loss when they dismantled West Coast at the tune of 116 points, with Mitch Lewis slotting six majors.

The Saints welcomed back their superstar Max King, who was enormous in his comeback game, leading Ross Lyon's men to victory.

St Kilda are currently fifth on the ladder and need to win games like this to keep in touch with the top four.

King's four-goal performance last week is exciting for Saints fans and should set his sight on another big game against an inexperienced and realistically, struggling side.

James Sicily and James Blanck will have their hands full under the roof at Marvel Stadium but won't be able to deny the key forward.

Max King 3+ goals - $1.65

Max King - St Kilda
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Naarm (4th) vs Walyalup (10th) best bet

Saturday afternoon's game is arguably the best of the round, with Naarm (Melbourne) missing the likes of Clayton Oliver (hamstring) and Lachie Hunter (suspension).

Despite the Demons' ladder position, they have struggled against the other contenders and were beaten in a thriller last week at the hands of Port Adelaide.

Whereas Walyalup (Fremantle) have turned their season around, winning three on the trot and hitting over 100 points each time.

With plenty of ramifications coming from the result, the Luke Jackson situation adds further spice to the game.

Jackson left Naarm for Walyalup at the end of 2022 and comes up against his old side for the first time.

Given the form of both, expect a close game and a bit of extra attention toward the 2021 Rising Star winner.

Melbourne to win - $1.34

Geelong (7th) vs GWS (15th) best bet

Geelong's season has come to a grinding halt after two consecutive losses to Richmond and Walyalup, resulting in the ledger being equal (5-5).

As we know, GWS are under new direction and don't have that much expectation on what they will achieve in 2023, although have been impressive against the better sides.

For the first time this year, Jeremy Cameron was uncharacteristically goalless last week, despite having four shots on goal (all behinds).

The week prior, Cameron also put a solitary major through the sticks as the Cats went down in both rounds.

Down at GMHBA Stadium, the former Giant will want to hit the scoreboard more so against his old side.

Kardinia Park has traditionally been a stomping ground for Cameron and the Cats, with the superstar forward averaging 2.5 goals a game.

Not to mention, the absence of Nick Haynes and Harry Himmelberg through concussion hurts Adam Kingsley.

Jeremy Cameron 3+ goals - $1.40

Gold Coast (13th) vs Western Bulldogs (6th) best bet

Gold Coast's season is hanging by a thread after four wins from the first 10 weeks and desperately need a big scalp.

The Western Bulldogs have risen above all expectations to sit one game behind Brisbane in second place after a poor start to the year.

Played in TIO Stadium, where the contest is pivotal due to the slippery conditions, it'll be about which midfield gets on top of the other.

Tom Liberatore has been a key part of the Bulldogs' resurgence into top four calculations and is putting together an All-Australian season.

So far, 'Libba' is averaging just under 28 disposals and seven clearances while providing a lot of assurance around the ball to allow Marcus Bontempelli and Bailey Smith to thrive.

The 31-year-old will relish the conditions in the Northern Territory and will continue his impressive form.

Tom Liberatore 25+ disposals - $1.50

Tom Liberatore Western Bulldogs
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West Coast (18th) vs Essendon (9th)

West Coast's season goes from bad to worse and the 116-point drubbing from Hawthorn is the cherry on top.

As for Essendon, they ended a four-game losing streak, albeit to four genuine contenders, by breaking the hearts of the Richmond faithful to keep their year alive.

This game should be a comfortable win for the Bombers, with a host of stars wanting to make the most of the free kill and add some much needed percentage.

Jake Stringer's form in 2023 has been impressive, slotting a goal in all eight of his outings as well as two four-goal hauls.

Stringer's mid-forward role has worked so far under Brad Scott and will hope to hit the scoreboard once again.

Jake Stringer 2+ goals - $1.40

Richmond (14th) vs Yartapuulti (3rd) best bet

Richmond has admittedly had a tough week, with the departure of Damien Hardwick as senior coach being on their minds.

However, their attention needs to turn to Sunday's clash against the in-form team of the competition, Yartapuulti (Port Adelaide), who have won seven games in a row.

Played at the home of football, you'd think the Tigers may have some ascendancy in this clash, although Ken Hinkley has his men humming.

Zak Butters has been the poster boy of the Power climb to premiership contention, asserting himself on the competition and become one of the best players at the moment.

His 40+ disposal, two-goal match last week was a match-winning performance against Naarm (Melbourne) and would love to continue his form.

Butters is averaging just under 27 disposals but will exceed that once again on Sunday.

Zak Butters 30+ disposals - $1.80

Collingwood (1st) vs North Melbourne (17th) best bet

Collingwood are the team to beat at the moment, sitting a game clear on top of the ladder and will relish their next two contests against North Melbourne and West Coast.

As for the Kangaroos, they deserved to win last week but fell devastatingly short due to an interchange breach in the last minute of the match.

Played under the roof at Marvel Stadium, it should be a one-sided affair, with the Pies adding some percentage as they skip onto their 10th victory of the season.

North Melbourne have struggled to defend opposition scores, averaging 102 points against.

Brody Mihocek, Mason Cox, Jamie Elliott and Ash Johnson would be licking their lips.

In terms of Elliott, he hasn't seen the reward on the scoreboard that he'd like, averaging just one goal in 2023.

But this will change.

Jamie Elliott 2+ goals - $2.00

Jamie Elliott Collingwood Magpies

Adelaide (8th) vs Brisbane (2nd) best bet

Arguably saving the best until last, Adelaide hosting Brisbane will have plenty of stories that come out of the result.

For the Crows, a win would solidify their place in the hunt for finals, while the Lions could prove their ability to do it on the road in front of hostile crowds.

Adelaide's form of the past month has been scratchy in terms of victories, although they are playing above their win-loss record.

Chris Fagan's men have been faultless, winning their past six games with relative ease, although only against top eight team (Collingwood).

The Lions need to show what they are capable against a strong opponent, especially when they're missing some key personnel (Jack Payne and Keidean Coleman).

Not much between these two in the market, although Brisbane does have the edge.

Brisbane to win - $1.73

Author(s)
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Aidan Cellini is a content producer for The Sporting News Australia.